Major Eugene Candidate Fundraising Update

With apologies to the other candidates, the big races in Eugene, Eugene Mayor and North Eugene County Commissioner, are getting down to business with only two major candidates in each. For mayor it’s Mike Clark and Lucy Vinis. For commissioner it’s Pat Farr and Tony McCown. This blog with look at the money situation.

image002

Coincidentally, Farr and Vinis have raised nearly equal amounts, less than 1% separates them. Clark and McCown are far behind.

But, this isn’t the entire story.

image004

Both Farr and Clark have benefited from significant in-kind expenditures. Nearly half of Clarks contributions have come through this route. Most of these are for his office.

image006

The cash spent tells an interesting tale. Clark, Farr, and McCown have all spent roughly the same amount of money to date. Vinis, on the other hand, has spent more than the other three combined.

image008

The current cash balance shows who’s ready for the final election sprint. Farr has more cash on hand than the other three candidates combined (in another coincidence he has about $19 more remaining as Vinis has spent). Clark has about two-thirds Vinis. McCown has spent nearly all his cash.

On last item, Clark’s fundraising has caught fire the last week. He has raised about 37% of his total cash raised during the past week.

Disclaimer: The Lindholm Company, LLC, is consulting for and has in-kinded polling to the Farr campaign.

Eugene Homeless Code Enforcement Approval

image012

Eugeneans attitudes on homeless code enforcement has stayed about the same.

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the City of Eugene relaxing code enforcement on homeless camping?
IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene General Election voters were conducted on each of December 2-3, 2015 and February 22-23, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Spending of Eugene’s Parks Money

image006

Although the Register Guard and a number of activists have argued this question, the nearly one-third undecided indicates this issue hasn’t reached out among the wider Eugene electorate.

N.B. This question was asked before the Register Guard editorial.

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of how the City of Eugene is spending the parks bond money?
IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene General Election voters were conducted February 22-23, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

LTD Board Job Approval Trend

image010
The LTD Board’s rating took a sharp upturn earlier this year after being steady for a long time. The “Don’t Knows” increased at the same time.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job the Lane Transit District Board of Directors is doing: excellent, good, fair,poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted February 16-18, 2015, June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 1-2, 2015, and February 22-23, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%.

The total might not equal 100% due to rounding.

EWEB Board Job Approval Trend

image006

The EWEB Board’s rating looks like it is returning to its long-term level after a detour December 2015.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job the Eugene Water and Electric Board of Directors is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted February 16-18, 2015, June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 1-2, 2015, and February 22-23, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%. The total might not equal 100% due to rounding.

Eugene City Council Job Approval Trend

image004

Although there was a significant improvement the middle of last year, Eugeneans opinion of their city council has returned to its common low level.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job e Eugene City Council is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted February 16-18, 2015, June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 1-2, 2015, and February 22-23, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%. The total might not equal 100% due to rounding.

Latest Mayor Piercy Job Approval

image002

Mayor Piercy’s job approval took an uptick early this year. Long-term, it’s been hovering around 50% for years – reflected how divided Eugene is.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job Eugene Mayor Kitty Piercy is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted February 16-18, 2015, June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 1-2, 2015, and February 22-23, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%. The total might not equal 100% due to rounding.

Republican Primary Secretary of State Fundraising To Date

image006 In the Republican Primary for Secretary of State, Dennis Richardson has a huge fundraising edge over Sid Leiken. This edge is magnified by the more than 95% burn rate of the Leiken campaign compared to the under 10% Richardson burn rate. The result is that Richardson’s reported cash on hand is nearly 50X what Leiken has.

METHODOLOGY: Funds raised equal the total raised during 2015 and 2016. Data from ORESTAR collected afternoon of March 12, 2016.

Democratic Primary Secretary of State Current Cash

image004

In the Democratic Primary for Secretary of State, Richard Devlin leads with Brad Avakian second, and Val Hoyle trailing. Listing the cash raised would have been misleading because Hoyle’s legislative leadership artificially magnifies her funds raised and, consequently, here implicit burn rate. This role also has hampered her fundraising.

METHODOLOGY: The cash is from data on ORESTAR collected afternoon of March 12, 2016.

Oregon 2016 Major Gubernatorial Candidates: Funds Raised and Remaining

In the race for Governor incumbent Kate Brown has a massive edge. Pierce’s fundraising has crossed the million dollar mark. Alley’s campaign, basically a week old when these data were collected, has been making rapid progress..

METHODOLOGY: Funds raised equal the total raised during 2015 and 2016. Data from ORESTAR collected afternoon of March 12, 2016.