Oregon Republican Senate Primary Trend

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Strikingly, a week out from the election no candidate had amassed much support. Neither of the leading candidates, Carpenter or Stewart, had made any significant headway. This differs from Huffman’s 2010 campaign where he steadily pulled away from the field. This provides one possible reason for the Callahan victory: the Carpenter and Stewart campaigns were just not getting any sort of message out to the voters.

QUESTION: If the Republican United States Senate Primary were held today, would you vote for: Sam Carpenter, Mark Callahan, Faye Stewart, or Dan Laschober? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: These results are based on three surveys composed of live telephone interviews of likely Oregon Democratic Primary voters. A survey of 200 was conducted April 5-6, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for this survey is 7%. Two surveys of 400 were conducted April 25-26 and May 9-10, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for these surveys is 5%.

Oregon Republican Presidential Primary Trend

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During the Republican primary, Trump was steadily gaining and Cruz was steadily losing ground. Kasich stayed about level. This fit with the national patterns at the time.

QUESTION: If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today, would you vote for: Ted Cruz, John R. Kasich, or Donald J. Trump? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: These results are based on three surveys composed of live telephone interviews of likely Oregon Democratic Primary voters. A survey of 200 was conducted April 5-6, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for this survey is 7%. Two surveys of 400 were conducted April 25-26 and May 9-10, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for these surveys is 5%.

Oregon Democratic Secretary of State Primary Trend

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Avakian established an early lead. Val Hoyle caught up rapidly toward the end. Avakian won it at the end.

QUESTION: If the Democratic Oregon Secretary of State Primary were held today, would you vote for: Richard Devlin, Brad Avakian, or Val Hoyle? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: These results are based on three surveys composed of live telephone interviews of likely Oregon Democratic Primary voters. A survey of 200 was conducted April 5-6, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for this survey is 7%. Two surveys of 400 were conducted April 25-26 and May 9-10, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for these surveys is 5%.

Vinis Name Familiarity Key Demographics

 

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As with Mike Clark, political party was the top determinant of favorability towards Vinis. As one would also expect, given that Vinis was practically unknown at the beginning of the campaign (see: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=13040), her name familiarity steadily increased among all groups with her net favorability rocketing among Democrats.

QUESTION: I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______ IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
Lucy Vinis

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely 2016 Primary voters were conducted on each of February 8-9, April 4-5, April 18-19, and May 2-3, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.These were then pooled into a single large sample of 800.

Clark Name Familiarity Key Demographics

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The primary driver of support for Mike Clark was a person’s political party. After that, Democrats split up between those from South Eugene and those from the rest of Eugene. Among South Eugene Democrats, Age was the key factor with persons 60 and under being strongly negative. Among the latter, they got to know Clark better, but didn’t much like what they learned. This group was a key part of the business coalition in past years and the loss of this group explains some of the Clark campaign’s troubles.

The Clark trend is at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=13038

QUESTION: I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______ IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
Mike Clark

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely 2016 Primary voters were conducted on each of February 8-9, April 4-5, April 18-19, and May 2-3, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.These were then pooled into a single large sample of 800.

Vinis Name Familiarity Trend

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In contrast to Mike Clark’s name familiarity trend (http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=13038), Lucy Vinis’ steadily improved. Her favorables and net favorables increased in every poll. By a couple weeks out her favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was a very healthy three-and-a-half-to-one.

QUESTION: I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______ IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
Lucy Vinis

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely 2016 Primary voters were conducted on each of February 8-9, April 4-5, April 18-19, and May 2-3, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.

Clark Name Familiarity Trend

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Mike Clark’s net favorability (favorables minus unfavorables) never broke into double digits. A typical campaign goal is two-to-one. At one point Clark was nearly one-to-one.

QUESTION: I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______ IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
Mike Clark

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely 2016 Primary voters were conducted on each of February 8-9, April 4-5, April 18-19, and May 2-3, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.

Eugene Mayoral Candidate Net Favorability Trends

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Vinis gained consistently during the campaign. Clark never seemed to gain ground. This differences appears to have been a key driver in the final result.

QUESTION: I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______ IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
RANDOMIZE ORDER
1. Mike Clark
2. Lucy Vinis

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely 2016 Primary voters were conducted on each of February 8-9, April 4-5, April 18-19, and May 2-3, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.

Eugene Mayoral Candidate Name Familiarity Trends

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Vinis’s name familiarity started very low and gained through the campaign. Clark started high and gained somewhat. His name familiarity remained higher than Vinis’ throughout the campaign. This implies that something else led to Vinis’ victory.

QUESTION: I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______ IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
RANDOMIZE ORDER
1. Mike Clark
2. Lucy Vinis

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely 2016 Primary voters were conducted on each of February 8-9, April 4-5, April 18-19, and May 2-3, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.

Oregon Republican Secretary of State Primary Trend

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Richardson started with a massive lead and never looked back.

QUESTION: If the Republican Oregon Secretary of State Primary were held today, would you vote for: Dennis Richardson or Sid Leiken? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: These results are based on three surveys composed of live telephone interviews of likely Oregon Democratic Primary voters. A survey of 200 was conducted April 5-6, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for this survey is 7%. Two surveys of 400 were conducted April 25-26 and May 9-10, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for these surveys is 5%.