Lindholm Company Blog

The wave missed Oregon, again.

The past three wave elections, 2002,2010, and 2014 were all great for national Republicans. None was a particularly great for Oregon Republicans. Why is that?

Sure, in 2002, Gordon Smith turned what had been an expected close race into a landslide victory and the Republicans held the state legislature despite the huge reshuffling, some might say gerrymander, of districts by the Democratic Secretary of State after the 2000 Census. However, the Republicans failed to win  the Governor’s Mansion.

The open seats in 2002 and 2010 were there for the taking, some might say. Why weren’t they?

The most obvious, and probably simplest, reason is that the Republican nominees in these years just weren’t ready.

Kevin Mannix, a social conservative, was simply too conservative for the Oregon electorate. Heck, he was too conservative for the Republican Primary electorate. Jack Roberts and Ron Saxton, both to his left on a wide range of issues, together won a landslide majority – had they not split the vote.

Chris Dudley simply had no resume. Oregonians haven’t elected an inexperienced Governor since 1938. And that year Charles Sprague was the editor of the Statesman-Journal.

Oregon Republicans should nominate their best and brightest, not their afterthoughts, for Governor. You never know what might happen.

Turning back to 1938 might give us some inspiration … the Eugene Register-Guard endorsed Sprague in the Primary and staunchly backed him through the year. However, their endorsement in the Primary was something less than optimistic. They liked Sprague well enough, but they wrote that he didn’t stand much of a chance against popular Democratic Governor Charles Martin. Not only was Martin popular, but Democrats had been winning wider and wider margins nearly everywhere in the country since 1928. A funny thing happened, though. First, the Democrats didn’t re-nominate Martin, Instead, they chose a very liberal nominee. Second, 1938 turned out to be, in relative terms, a wave election for Republicans. They made major strides nationally in 1938. These two in combination made Sprague Governor.

This is another post that looks both at the year in review and at the coming year.

There is an interesting pattern across the past three mayors: Ruth Bascom (1993-7), Jim Torrey (1997-2005), and Kitty Piercy (2005-present). Under Bascom the library lost narrowly … very narrowly. Under Torrey the library won in landslides … every win by more than double digits. Under Piercy the library won … but only narrowly. Both wins were solid, but not overwhelming by any stretch of the imagination.

Sources: Eugene Election History – 1896 to present; Lane County Elections.

Measures Included:
May 1994: General Obligation Bonds for new library, emergency equipment, facility repair – $56,207,287.
Nov. 1994: General Obligation Bonds for new library – $26,134,808
Nov. 1998: Four-Year Library Operations Serial Levy. $2,190,000 per year
May 2002: Four-Year Library Local Option Tax
May 2006: Four-Year Local Option Property Tax Levy for Library Operations. $2,687,500 per year for 4 years
May 2015: Five-Year Local Option Levy

Despite the dramatic turnout increases, there was relatively little change in the geographic distribution of  voters. The biggest shift, a 3% decrease, was in the Valley region.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Definitions of regions:
West Springfield: Wards 1 and 2
Central Springfield: Wards 3 and 4
East Springfield: Wards 5 and 6
Valley: Unincorporated portions of the district.

Turnout increased dramatically compared to 2014 in every region. This reflects Springfield’s growth. The one laggard, but, only in comparison, was the Valley region.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Definitions of regions:
West Springfield: Wards 1 and 2
Central Springfield: Wards 3 and 4
East Springfield: Wards 5 and 6
Valley: Unincorporated portions of the district.

Though there were turnout increases in every region, they had very little effect on the distribution of actual voters in the election.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Definitions of regions:
Coast: Precincts 702, 704, 4500, 4601 and 4602 (merged with 4601 after 2014 election).
Central: Precincts 706, 708, 710, 712, 714, 716, 4700 and 4900.
Santa Clara: Precincts 726, 732, 1569, 1671, 1781 and 1787.

Turnout increased in every region of the West Lane district compared to 2014. The greatest increase was in the Coast region.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Definitions of regions:
Coast: Precincts 702, 704, 4500, 4601 and 4602 (merged with 4601 after 2014 election).
Central: Precincts 706, 708, 710, 712, 714, 716, 4700 and 4900.
Santa Clara: Precincts 726, 732, 1569, 1671, 1781 and 1787.

Leiken’s support dropped in every region of the district since his 2014. The greatest drops were the in the areas where Berney did best.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Definitions of regions:
West Springfield: Wards 1 and 2
Central Springfield: Wards 3 and 4
East Springfield: Wards 5 and 6
Valley: Unincorporated portions of the district.

Berney did better the further west in the district one went. The generally more affluent end of the district supported Leiken.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Definitions of regions:
West Springfield: Wards 1 and 2
Central Springfield: Wards 3 and 4
East Springfield: Wards 5 and 6
Valley: Unincorporated portions of the district.

Bozievich improved in all regions in comparison to his nail-biting recount victory in the 2014 Primary. His greatest improvement was in the urban Santa Clara area.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Definitions of regions:
Coast: Precincts 702, 704, 4500, 4601 and 4602 (merged with 4601 after 2014 election).
Central: Precincts 706, 708, 710, 712, 714, 716, 4700 and 4900.
Santa Clara: Precincts 726, 732, 1569, 1671, 1781 and 1787.

Bozievich won all three major regions of the district, but he really piled up his margin of victory in the Central region. The Coast region, unsurprisingly, was the closest and where Kent did best.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Definitions of regions:
Coast: Precincts 702, 704, 4500, 4601 and 4602 (merged with 4601 after 2014 election).
Central: Precincts 706, 708, 710, 712, 714, 716, 4700 and 4900.
Santa Clara: Precincts 726, 732, 1569, 1671, 1781 and 1787.