Tree Analysis of Measure 92 (GMO Labeling) Vote Demographics

ORGEN1410MERGE-CHAID 11-1-148

Party was the primary vote determinant. The date of the poll shows up as a secondary variable. This implies some voters depended on new information generated by the campaigns. Their take on this new information was likely dependent on their political perspective.

The late movement was clearly among non Republicans. This makes sense if the measure was generally seen as regulation. This trend highlights the effectiveness of the “No” campaign.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 92: Requires food manufacturers, retailers to label “genetically engineered” foods as such; state, citizens may enforce, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY:

SURVEYS: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

TREE ANALYSIS: Standard CHAID was applied to a pooled data set constructed from the above two surveys.The dependent variable in each case is the specific ballot choice. Independent variables were the same in all analyses. These include: Poll Date, Gender, Age, Party, Congressional District, Vote Frequency, Homeownership, Union Membership, Marital Status, Religious Importance, Religious Attendance, Education, and Income.

 

Tree Analysis of Measure 91 (Marijuana Legalization) Vote Demographics

ORGEN1410MERGE-CHAID 11-1-147

Party was the primary vote determinant. The date of the poll shows up as a secondary variable. This implies some voters depended on new information generated by the campaigns. Their take on this new information was likely dependent on their political perspective.

It is interesting that voters who are more religious were more likely to oppose legalized marijuana.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 91: Allows possession, manufacture, sale of marijuana by/to adults, subject to state licensing, regulation, taxation, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY:

SURVEYS: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

TREE ANALYSIS: Standard CHAID was applied to a pooled data set constructed from the above two surveys.The dependent variable in each case is the specific ballot choice. Independent variables were the same in all analyses. These include: Poll Date, Gender, Age, Party, Congressional District, Vote Frequency, Homeownership, Union Membership, Marital Status, Religious Importance, Religious Attendance, Education, and Income.

Tree Analysis of Measure 90 (Top Two Primary) Vote Demographics

ORGEN1410MERGE-CHAID 11-1-146

The date of the poll, trend, was the primary vote determinant. The party shows up as a secondary variable. This implies new information was the dominant decision variable.

Party impacted the earlier poll, but not the second one nearer the election. This implies that the information counteracted voter predispositions.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 90: Changes general election nomination processes: provides for single primary ballot listing candidates; top two advance, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY:

SURVEYS: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

TREE ANALYSIS: Standard CHAID was applied to a pooled data set constructed from the above two surveys.The dependent variable in each case is the specific ballot choice. Independent variables were the same in all analyses. These include: Poll Date, Gender, Age, Party, Congressional District, Vote Frequency, Homeownership, Union Membership, Marital Status, Religious Importance, Religious Attendance, Education, and Income.

Tree Analysis of Measure 89 (Oregon ERA) Vote Demographics

ORGEN1410MERGE-CHAID 11-1-145

Party was the primary vote determinant. The date of the poll shows up as a secondary variable. This implies some voters depended on new information generated by the campaigns. Their take on this new information was likely dependent on their political perspective.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 89: Amends Constitution: State/political subdivision shall not deny or abridge equality of rights on account of sex, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY:

SURVEYS: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

TREE ANALYSIS: Standard CHAID was applied to a pooled data set constructed from the above two surveys.The dependent variable in each case is the specific ballot choice. Independent variables were the same in all analyses. These include: Poll Date, Gender, Age, Party, Congressional District, Vote Frequency, Homeownership, Union Membership, Marital Status, Religious Importance, Religious Attendance, Education, and Income.

 

Tree Analysis of Measure 88 (Driver Card) Vote Demographics

ORGEN1410MERGE-CHAID 11-1-144

Party was the primary vote determinant. The date of the poll shows up as a secondary variable. This implies some voters depended on new information generated by the campaigns. Their take on this new information was likely dependent on their political perspective.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 88: Provides Oregon resident “driver card” without requiring proof of legal presence in the United States, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY:

SURVEYS: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

TREE ANALYSIS: Standard CHAID was applied to a pooled data set constructed from the above two surveys.The dependent variable in each case is the specific ballot choice. Independent variables were the same in all analyses. These include: Poll Date, Gender, Age, Party, Congressional District, Vote Frequency, Homeownership, Union Membership, Marital Status, Religious Importance, Religious Attendance, Education, and Income.

Tree Analysis of Measure 87 (Judicial Employment) Vote Demographics

ORGEN1410MERGE-CHAID 11-1-143

The date of the poll, trend, was the primary vote determinant. The party shows up as a secondary variable. This implies new information was the dominant decision variable.

Party impacted the poll nearer the election, but not the early one. This implies that the information amplified voter predispositions.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 87: Amends Constitution: Permits employment of state judges by National Guard (military service) and state public universities (teaching), would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY:

SURVEYS: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

TREE ANALYSIS: Standard CHAID was applied to a pooled data set constructed from the above two surveys.The dependent variable in each case is the specific ballot choice. Independent variables were the same in all analyses. These include: Poll Date, Gender, Age, Party, Congressional District, Vote Frequency, Homeownership, Union Membership, Marital Status, Religious Importance, Religious Attendance, Education, and Income.

Tree Analysis of Measure 86 (College Fund) Vote Demographics

ORGEN1410MERGE-CHAID 11-1-142

Party was the primary vote determinant. The date of the poll shows up as a secondary variable. This implies some voters depended on new information generated by the campaigns. Their take on this new information was likely dependent on their political perspective.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 86: Amends Constitution: Requires creation of fund for Oregonians pursuing post-secondary education, authorizes state indebtedness to finance fund, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY:

SURVEYS: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

TREE ANALYSIS: Standard CHAID was applied to a pooled data set constructed from the above two surveys.The dependent variable in each case is the specific ballot choice. Independent variables were the same in all analyses. These include: Poll Date, Gender, Age, Party, Congressional District, Vote Frequency, Homeownership, Union Membership, Marital Status, Religious Importance, Religious Attendance, Education, and Income.

Tree Analysis of Oregon Governor Vote Demographics

ORGEN1410MERGE-CHAID 11-1-141

Party was the primary vote determinant. The date of the poll does not show up as a secondary variable. This implies the votes either did not or, at least, depended less, on new information generated by the campaigns.

QUESTION: If the election  for Oregon Governor were held today, would you vote for Dennis Richardson, Republican and Independent Parties, Chris Henry, Progressive Party, Aaron Auer, Constitution Party, John Kitzhaber, Democrat and Working Families Parties, Paul Grad, Libertarian Party, and Jason Levin, Pacific Green Party?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?

METHODOLOGY:

SURVEYS: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

TREE ANALYSIS: Standard CHAID was applied to a pooled data set constructed from the above two surveys.The dependent variable in each case is the specific ballot choice. Independent variables were the same in all analyses. These include: Poll Date, Gender, Age, Party, Congressional District, Vote Frequency, Homeownership, Union Membership, Marital Status, Religious Importance, Religious Attendance, Education, and Income.

Tree Analysis of Oregon Senate Vote Demographics

ORGEN1410MERGE-CHAID 11-1-140

Party was the primary vote determinant. The date of the poll does not show up as a secondary variable. This implies the votes either did not or, at least, depended less, on new information generated by the campaigns.

QUESTION: If the election for United States Senator were held today, would you vote for Mike Montchalin, Libertarian Party, Jeff Merkley, Democrat, Independent, Working Families, and Progressive Parties, Christina Jean Lugo, Pacific Green Party, James E. Leuenberger, Constitution Party, and Monica Wehby, Republican Party?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?

METHODOLOGY:

SURVEYS: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

TREE ANALYSIS: Standard CHAID was applied to a pooled data set constructed from the above two surveys.The dependent variable in each case is the specific ballot choice. Independent variables were the same in all analyses. These include: Poll Date, Gender, Age, Party, Congressional District, Vote Frequency, Homeownership, Union Membership, Marital Status, Religious Importance, Religious Attendance, Education, and Income.

Measure 92 (GMO Labeling) Contest Tracking and Election Day Final

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GMO Labeling started very close, but gained over time.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 92: Requires food manufacturers, retailers to label “genetically engineered” foods as such; state, citizens may enforce, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

SURVEY METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

SOURCE OF ELECTION RETURNS: Oregon Secretary of State. Final Unofficial Results (Nov. 7, 2014 8pm).