The percentage of undecided is usually a good indicator of how much information voters have, or think they have, about a contest on the ballot.
Usually an undecided percentage around 10 percent or less means that voters are paying close attention. Three measures meet that standard: marijuana legalization, GMO labeling, and non-citizen driver’s card.
Measures over 20 percentage still haven’t grabbed the attention of voters. In particular, the top two primary fits this.
Measures at 30 percent, the Oregon ERA and the college fund are even less at top of mind.
Finally, the judicial employment measure’s percentage is so low it is clear that voters don’t know what to make of it.
Information as used here is not necessarily knowledge. Information might not be true. However, as used here, it is the basis for a voter’s decision.
QUESTIONS INCLUDED: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on ________________, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
1. Measure 86: Amends Constitution: Requires creation of fund for Oregonians pursuing post-secondary education, authorizes state indebtedness to finance fund
2. Measure 87: Amends Constitution: Permits employment of state judges by National Guard (military service) and state public universities (teaching)
3. Measure 88: Provides Oregon resident “driver card” without requiring proof of legal presence in the United States
4. Measure 89: Amends Constitution: State/political subdivision shall not deny or abridge equality of rights on account of sex
5. Measure 90: Changes general election nomination processes: provides for single primary ballot listing candidates; top two advance
6. Measure 91: Allows possession, manufacture, sale of marijuana by/to adults, subject to state licensing, regulation, taxation
7. Measure 92: Requires food manufacturers, retailers to label “genetically engineered” foods as such; state, citizens may enforce
METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters October 13-16, 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.