Oregon 2016 Measure 95 Key Demographics

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The primary determinant on Measure 95 voting was political party. Other important variables include gender, union membership, and date.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 95 Amends Constitution: Allows investments in equities by public universities to reduce financial risk and increase investments to benefit students, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

These three surveys were then pooled to create The key demographics were determined using CHAID methodology.

Vinis’s Name Familiarity Stays Level

Despite being mayor-elect for nearly a year, Mayor Lucy Vinis’ name familiarity has barely budged since the campaign ended.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each: Lucy Vinis?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of September 13-15, 2016, December 2-3, 2016, and April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Lane County Ballot Return Pattern

As is common in special elections, ballot come in steadily with a definite spike on the final two days.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Countywide Turnout Recent Lane County Special Elections

One interesting pattern is the dropping number of voters in May Special Elections. Both an expanding overall population and more expansive voter registration laws would seem imply the number of voters should be going up not down.

Historically, more voters, about double, turn out in local special elections when money measures are on the ballot.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Results of Recent Lane County Measures Compared

The Jail Levy renewal campaign won with an astounding 73%.  Recent county campaigns have been all over the map. The renewal campaign more than doubled the vehicle registration fee percentage. There is a clear difference in voters’ minds between the jail levy and the vehicle registration fee – not all Lane County money measures are created equal.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Series on 2017 Special Election Begins

This blog will start tomorrow to post analysis of the 2017 May Special Election. The primary focus will be on countywide results and the recent jail levy, but other topics will be covered.

Posts will continue regularly on Mondays. Occasionally, posts will be made on weekends.

Oregon 2016 Measure 95 Vote Trend

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Measure 95 remained solidly ahead throughout the campaign.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 95 Amends Constitution: Allows investments in equities by public universities to reduce financial risk and increase investments to benefit students, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

SOURCES: Election data from Oregon Secretary of State.

Downtown Eugene Summary Opinion

As a way of digging deeper into Eugene’s downtown rating, this question focuses on the transient population. The greatest change in the past two years has been the increase among those most negative (Bradshaw respondents).

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read statements from three fictitious people to you about the transient population in downtown Eugene and ask which one comes closest to your view: ROTATE ORDER
[The transient population in downtown Eugene]
Bradshaw:  ___  makes me feel much less safe and less likely to go to businesses there.
Philips: ___  makes me feel somewhat less safe and less likely to go to businesses there.
Andrews: ___  does not make me feel less safe and has no effect on whether I would go to businesses there.
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 1-2, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, and April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Measure 94 Comments

The failure of Measure 94 – allowing judges to serve to older ages – would normally be considered a housekeeping measure. Those have typically passed in Oregon. Measure 94’s failure certainly is partly due to a lack of explanation to the general public that safeguards would still be in place to get rid of senile judges, etc. Another factor could also be that in this period of hyperbolic rhetoric that the basics are being forgotten. This last point leads to the idea that the current Democratic control of government is more about a particular party than a trust in government. Witness virtually the entire Democratic leadership lining up behind Measure 97 last year and its landslide failure.

Oregon 2016 Measure 94 Key Demographics

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Support increased significantly between mid and late October. This implies that people were learning about this measure over time and that they were becoming more favorable.

Income and party were also important determinants.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 94 Amends Constitution: Eliminates mandatory retirement age for state judges, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

These three surveys were then pooled to create The key demographics were determined using CHAID methodology.