Undecided Making Up Their Minds

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The undecided on the measures are making up their minds. The percentage has reduced for every measure the past two weeks.

There is an interesting pattern in these numbers. Though the percentages have decreased, the ranking of the measures from top to bottom in percentage of undecided remains the same. In addition, the percentage changes by measures at different initial (10/13-16) levels of undecided are roughly the same. Measures 88, 91 and 92 all dropped from 10-11% to 3-5%. Measures 86, 89, and 90 all dropped 12-13%. Clearly, campaigning, both before and after the initial survey had some effect. Measure 87, probably the one where the voters had the least initial information, has had its undecideds dropped about in half.

QUESTIONS INCLUDED: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on ________________, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

1. Measure 86: Amends Constitution: Requires creation of fund for Oregonians pursuing post-secondary education, authorizes state indebtedness to finance fund

2. Measure 87: Amends Constitution: Permits employment of state judges by National Guard (military service) and state public universities (teaching)

3. Measure 88: Provides Oregon resident “driver card” without requiring proof of legal presence in the United States

4. Measure 89: Amends Constitution: State/political subdivision shall not deny or abridge equality of rights on account of sex

5. Measure 90: Changes general election nomination processes: provides for single primary ballot listing candidates; top two advance

6. Measure 91: Allows possession, manufacture, sale of marijuana by/to adults, subject to state licensing, regulation, taxation

7. Measure 92: Requires food manufacturers, retailers to label “genetically engineered” foods as such; state, citizens may enforce

METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

Measure 86 College Fund Behind

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Measure 86 is opposed by a solid margin. These results are similar to and fit the trend implied by the OPB survey analysis from a week earlier.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 86: Amends Constitution: Requires creation of fund for Oregonians pursuing post-secondary education, authorizes state indebtedness to finance fund, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters October 13-16, 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

Measure 90 Top-Two Primary Wide Open

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Measure 90 is behind. These results are generally in line with the OPB poll.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 90: Changes general election nomination processes: provides for single primary ballot listing candidates; top two advance, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters October 13-16, 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

Measure 92 on GMO Labeling Tight

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These results show a dead heat on Measure 92. This poll, which was fielded between the OPB and Oregonian polls shows the transition between those two polls and confirms their results.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 92: Requires food manufacturers, retailers to label “genetically engineered” foods as such; state, citizens may enforce, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters October 13-16, 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

Merkley Leads for Senate

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Merkley has a wide lead for U. S. Senate. This poll, which was fielded between the OPB and Oregonian polls shows the transition between those two polls and confirms their results.

QUESTION: If the election for United States Senator were held today, would you vote for Mike Montchalin, Libertarian Party, Jeff Merkley, Democrat, Independent, Working Families, and Progressive Parties, Christina Jean Lugo, Pacific Green Party, James E. Leuenberger, Constitution Party, and Monica Wehby, Republican Party?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters October 13-16, 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

Measure 91 to Legalize Marijuana Tight

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Measure 91 is very close. This poll, which was fielded between the OPB and Oregonian polls shows the transition between those two polls and confirms their results.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 91: Allows possession, manufacture, sale of marijuana by/to adults, subject to state licensing, regulation, taxation, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters October 13-16, 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

Kitzhaber Leads for Governor

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This poll was fielded just after the Cylvia Hayes scandal broke and shows the short-term impact on the Kitzhaber-Richardson contest. Kitzhaber’s lead is less than in the earlier OPB poll and about the same as in the later Oregonian poll.

QUESTION: If the election  for Oregon Governor were held today, would you vote for Dennis Richardson, Republican and Independent Parties, Chris Henry, Progressive Party, Aaron Auer, Constitution Party, John Kitzhaber, Democrat and Working Families Parties, Paul Grad, Libertarian Party, and Jason Levin, Pacific Green Party?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters October 13-16, 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

Oregon Turnout Likelihood by Vote Frequency

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A lot of surveys model turnout assuming that only Oregon voters who have voted two or more of the past four elections are likely to vote in this year’s general. This shows why that is done. Those voters are about 90 percent or more likely to vote. Those less who have voted than two of four are less than 60 percent. This is also why political consultants have often used this standard in the past.

QUESTION: How likely are you to vote in the upcoming November Presidential General Election on a scale of zero to ten, where zero is no chance to vote and ten is certain to vote?

METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters October 13-16, 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent. The margins of error of the subsample results range from six to fourteen percent.

The turnout question is frequently used in the United Kingdom and our tests indicate it is very simple and consistent. It tends to overestimate turnout likelihood, as one would expect. However, the relative likelihoods are highly correlated with actual turnout.

Vote frequency is from the voter file.

Measure 89 Oregon ERA Overwhelmingly Supported

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Measure 89 is supported by an overwhelming margin. The large undecided indicates that voters have not followed it closely.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 89: Amends Constitution: State/political subdivision shall not deny or abridge equality of rights on account of sex, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters October 13-16, 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

Measure 87 Judicial Employment Changes Supported

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Measure 87 is solidly supported. However, the undecided is so large it still leaves room for significant change. It is likely that the editorial endorsements and other third-party validation will carry it over the top.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 87: Amends Constitution: Permits employment of state judges by National Guard (military service) and state public universities (teaching), would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters October 13-16, 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.