Vehicle Registration Fee Trend and Polling Error Margins

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This post looks at the predicted yes percentage. It was always close to the final margin. This means the campaigns, both privately run and county-run, provided little significant information to voters.

QUESTION: Lane County plans to place this measure on the May ballot:
To ensure road safety by modestly increasing vehicle registration fee.  Shall streets, roads, and bridges be kept safe and well maintained through a $35/year increase in the vehicle registration fee? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 200 likely Lane County May Special Election voters were conducted each of March 9-10, 2015, April 1-2, April 27-28, and May 10-11, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

ELECTION RESULTS: Lane County Elections, Final Unofficial.

Vehicle Registration Fee Trend with Election Results

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The measure’s support hovered around the mid 30s since the Voter’s Pamphlet was sent. The opposition was never much below 60%. The measure never had a chance.

QUESTION: Lane County plans to place this measure on the May ballot:
To ensure road safety by modestly increasing vehicle registration fee.  Shall streets, roads, and bridges be kept safe and well maintained through a $35/year increase in the vehicle registration fee? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 200 likely Lane County May Special Election voters were conducted each of March 9-10, 2015, April 1-2, April 27-28, and May 10-11, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

ELECTION RESULTS: Lane County Elections, Final Unofficial.

The High Accuracy Continues

After getting every statewide partisan candidate and statewide measure contest right in last November’s General Election, the company’s extended that streak.

The company got Lane County’s Vehicle Registration Fee result right last night. The company’s polling was consistently below 40 percent and the final result, as of this writing, looks to be around 34 percent – within the margin of error of every single one of our polls.

This blog will post more results about the election after Lane County Elections produces the Final Unofficial results later this week.

Big Gap Among Democrats by Region on Vehicle Registration Fee

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The Lane County vehicle registration fee is losing among everyone except South Eugene Democrats.

This is more evidence that south Eugene’s politics differ sharply from the rest of the county.

QUESTION: Lane County plans to place this measure on the May ballot:
To ensure road safety by modestly increasing vehicle registration fee.  Shall streets, roads, and bridges be kept safe and well maintained through a $35/year increase in the vehicle registration fee? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 200 likely Lane County May Special Election voters were conducted each of March 9-10, 2015, April 1-2, April 27-28, and May 10-11, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

CHAID: The above four surveys were combined into a single dataset. The tree was constructed using CHAID with the dependent variables being: survey date, gender, age, political party, and county commission district.

Lane Vehicle Registration Fee Gaining

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The measure continues to gain. This is probably due to the political campaign in favor and the county’s information campaign. There has been no organized opposition. The measure seems on track to be around 40 percent.

These numbers are from one week ago.

QUESTION: Lane County plans to place this measure on the May ballot:
To ensure road safety by modestly increasing vehicle registration fee.  Shall streets, roads, and bridges be kept safe and well maintained through a $35/year increase in the vehicle registration fee? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 200 likely Lane County May Special Election voters were conducted each of March 9-10, 2015, April 1-2, April 27-28, and May 10-11, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Lane Vehicle Registration Fee Latest Tracking

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The “yes” percentage jumped up since the beginning of the month and the “no” has continued its steady decline.

It’s not time for supporters to get too excited yet. Everything is consistent with the typical mid 30s support for new measures. However, things are going in the right direction.

Several observations: First, both the county’s and the political campaign have now kicked off. They almost certainly had some effect. Next, we’re getting further from the Kitzhaber resignation. That probably also had an effect. Finally, the “no” side is still at 60%. It still needs to drop a long way before the measure has any chance to pass.

QUESTION: Lane County plans to place this measure on the May ballot:
To ensure road safety by modestly increasing vehicle registration fee.  Shall streets, roads, and bridges be kept safe and well maintained through a $35/year increase in the vehicle registration fee? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 200 likely Lane County May Special Election voters were conducted each of March 9-10, 2015, April 1-2, and April 27-28, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Comparing Piercy’s and Torrey’s Ratings

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This post compares two Eugene mayors, Kitty Piercy this past February, and Jim Torrey in May of 2003, at about the same time before they left office. Piercy has announced she’s leaving office in January 2017 and Torrey left office in January 2005.

Several things jump out. First, Torrey’s positive job performance (total of excellent and good) was more than ten points higher than Piercy’s is now. In general, Torrey’s ratings were higher than Piercy’s. Second, Piercy is significantly more polarizing among the electorate with 50% rating her either excellent or poor compared to half that, 25%, rating Torrey that way. Third, the “Don’t Know” percentages are about the same and are very low. Virtually everyone has an opinion about the mayor, then and now.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job ________ is doing as Mayor: excellent, good, fair, poor?
Jim Torrey
Kitty Piercy

METHODOLOGY: 200 telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely general election voters were conducted the nights of May 7-8, 2003 for Mayor Torrey and Feb. 16-18, 2015 for Mayor Piercy. The margin of error at the median is 7% for each of these surveys.

Piercy Job Performance Ratings Past Two Years

 

 

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Mayor Piercy has been in net negative territory since January 2013.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job Kitty Piercy is doing as Mayor: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely general election voters were conducted the nights of Jan. 23-24, June 10-11, Sep. 23-24, and Dec. 4-5, 2013, Feb. 11-14, May 27-28, Sep. 15-16, and Dec. 2-3, 2014 and Feb. 16-18, 2015.. The margin of error at the median is 7% for each of these surveys.

Lane Vehicle Registration Fee Behind

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The proposed Lane County Vehicle Registration Fee is losing in a landslide.

There are three factors that alone or in combination might explain this. First, Lane County generally does not like new kinds of taxes or fees, such as income taxes and the like. They usually lose in landslides. Just look at Mayor Piercy’s failures in Eugene. In that sense, this result is to be expected.

Second, it might not be clear to the general public how this measure fits in the larger context. The campaign for the successful jail levy had its direct roots in the 2009 “Fund the Jail” grass roots campaign. By contrast, road maintenance didn’t seem to figure at all in last May’s campaigns. Commissioner Bozievich, for example, emphasized the economy and public safety.

Finally, the Kitzhaber resignation could be compounding the measure’s woes. Other research implies that Oregon’s confidence in its government took a huge hit and the vehicle registration might just be on the ballot at the wrong time.

How to balance these? These results are consistent with other polls our company has done in the area. That observation supports the first two factors. The extremely low “don’t know” percentage supports the third factor – people will say “no” to anything government proposes. This should not be underestimated. Under usual circumstances, the “don’t know” should be closer to 20 percent.

QUESTION: Lane County plans to place this measure on the May ballot:
To ensure road safety by modestly increasing vehicle registration fee.  Shall streets, roads, and bridges be kept safe and well maintained through a $35/year increase in the vehicle registration fee? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 200 likely Lane County May Special Election voters were conducted March 9-10, 2015 and April 1-2, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

REFERENCES: Polling presented at the Dorchester Conference: http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/03/at_seaside_conference_gop_mode.html.

Just Before Resignation: The Kitzhaber Recall Coalition

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Just before he resigned, a vast majority of Democrats would still have supported Gov. Kitzhaber against a recall effort. As expected, Republicans strongly supported recall. Independents were also in favor of recall.

No other variable, besides partisanship, was statistically significant at either a primary or secondary level.

Kitzhaber announced February 13 that he would resign on February 18.

QUESTION: Recall petitions have been filed against Governor Kitzhaber. By law, they cannot begin collecting signatures until July. However, if the election were held today would you vote to recall or to keep Governor Kitzhaber in office? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 400 likely Oregon gubernatorial general election voters were conducted February 9-11, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region.

“Leaners” were grouped with recall/keep responses for analytic purposes.

This poll was conducted entirely at the expense of The Lindholm Company, LLC without outside support.