Measure 87 Judicial Employment Changes Supported

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Measure 87 is solidly supported. However, the undecided is so large it still leaves room for significant change. It is likely that the editorial endorsements and other third-party validation will carry it over the top.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 87: Amends Constitution: Permits employment of state judges by National Guard (military service) and state public universities (teaching), would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters October 13-16, 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

Measure 88 Drivers’ Card Overwhelmingly Opposed

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Measure 88 is overwhelmingly opposed. This result essentially matches that of the OPB poll conducted a week earlier.

More than 50 percent are strongly opposed.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 88: Provides Oregon resident “driver card” without requiring proof of legal presence in the United States, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters October 13-16, 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

Level of “Strong Opinions” Vary by Measure – Drivers Card at Top

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Those holding strong opinions are not just the reverse of those who are uncertain, though the fit is reasonably good. The strongest opinions are held on Measure 88, the driver’s card. GMO labeling and marijuana legalization, the largest campaigns, have generated nearly as high a rate of strong opinions. As one would expect, few have strong opinions about judicial employment.

 

QUESTIONS INCLUDED: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on ________________, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

1. Measure 86: Amends Constitution: Requires creation of fund for Oregonians pursuing post-secondary education, authorizes state indebtedness to finance fund

2. Measure 87: Amends Constitution: Permits employment of state judges by National Guard (military service) and state public universities (teaching)

3. Measure 88: Provides Oregon resident “driver card” without requiring proof of legal presence in the United States

4. Measure 89: Amends Constitution: State/political subdivision shall not deny or abridge equality of rights on account of sex

5. Measure 90: Changes general election nomination processes: provides for single primary ballot listing candidates; top two advance

6. Measure 91: Allows possession, manufacture, sale of marijuana by/to adults, subject to state licensing, regulation, taxation

7. Measure 92: Requires food manufacturers, retailers to label “genetically engineered” foods as such; state, citizens may enforce

METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters October 13-16, 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

The Strong Opinions Pct. = “Strongly Support” Pct. + “Strongly Oppose” Pct.

Which Oregon measures are voters paying attention to most?

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The percentage of undecided is usually a good indicator of how much information voters have, or think they have, about a contest on the ballot.

Usually an undecided percentage around 10 percent or less means that voters are paying close attention. Three measures meet that standard: marijuana legalization, GMO labeling, and non-citizen driver’s card.

Measures over 20 percentage still haven’t grabbed the attention of voters. In particular, the top two primary fits this.

Measures at 30 percent, the Oregon ERA and the college fund are even less at top of mind.

Finally, the judicial employment measure’s percentage is so low it is clear that voters don’t know what to make of it.

Information as used here is not necessarily knowledge. Information might not be true. However, as used here, it is the basis for a voter’s decision.

QUESTIONS INCLUDED: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on ________________, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

1. Measure 86: Amends Constitution: Requires creation of fund for Oregonians pursuing post-secondary education, authorizes state indebtedness to finance fund

2. Measure 87: Amends Constitution: Permits employment of state judges by National Guard (military service) and state public universities (teaching)

3. Measure 88: Provides Oregon resident “driver card” without requiring proof of legal presence in the United States

4. Measure 89: Amends Constitution: State/political subdivision shall not deny or abridge equality of rights on account of sex

5. Measure 90: Changes general election nomination processes: provides for single primary ballot listing candidates; top two advance

6. Measure 91: Allows possession, manufacture, sale of marijuana by/to adults, subject to state licensing, regulation, taxation

7. Measure 92: Requires food manufacturers, retailers to label “genetically engineered” foods as such; state, citizens may enforce

METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters October 13-16, 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

Perceptual Map of Oregon’s 1914 Statewide Ballot Measures

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This presents a perceptual map of voter attitudes on the seven ballot measures on the Oregon ballot.

There are several obvious clusters.

Measures 88 (driver card), 91 (legalize marijuana), and 92 (GMO labeling) are closely packed. This makes sense because they are the three most obviously liberal measures. The closest one to these is Measure 86 (college fund) which is also liberal leaning and then comes Measure 89 (Equal Rights Amendment).

The proximity of the two comparatively conservative measures, 87 (judicial employment) and 90 (top two primary) is better explained as due to their good government attributes as opposed to their conservative attributes.

Component 1 seems to distinguish the simple yes versus no decision. Component 2 seems best to distinguish between good government on the one hand and liberal on the other hand.

QUESTIONS INCLUDED: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on ________________, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

1. Measure 86: Amends Constitution: Requires creation of fund for Oregonians pursuing post-secondary education, authorizes state indebtedness to finance fund

2. Measure 87: Amends Constitution: Permits employment of state judges by National Guard (military service) and state public universities (teaching)

3. Measure 88: Provides Oregon resident “driver card” without requiring proof of legal presence in the United States

4. Measure 89: Amends Constitution: State/political subdivision shall not deny or abridge equality of rights on account of sex

5. Measure 90: Changes general election nomination processes: provides for single primary ballot listing candidates; top two advance

6. Measure 91: Allows possession, manufacture, sale of marijuana by/to adults, subject to state licensing, regulation, taxation

7. Measure 92: Requires food manufacturers, retailers to label “genetically engineered” foods as such; state, citizens may enforce

METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters October 13-16, 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

PERCEPTUAL MAP
The perceptual map was constructed using factor analysis. Technically, it a Principal Components Analysis was used with unrotated factors. A seven-point scale for each of the questions was used. Factors were deemed significant if their eigenvalue was greater than one.

This methodology was used because it involved the least number of assumptions and, in that sense, was the “purest” way to obtain the results. There are more sophisticated methods that would arguably be more illuminating. The objective here was lack of bias and transparency.

Paid Sick Leave Support/Approval by Eugene Region

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As one would expect, support for Paid Sick Leave is highest in south Eugene. Support is next highest in west Eugene. Support is lowest, and underwater in fact, in north Eugene.

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the City of Eugene requiring businesses providing services within the city limits to offer sick time to employees on an annual basis?

METHODOLOGY: Pooled dataset of 800 cases based on four survey. Each survey was comprised of 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2014 General election voters. These were conducted on July 8-10, July 23-24, July 30-31, and September 15-16, 2014. The margin of error at the sample median for the North Eugene sub sample of 208 is plus or minus seven percent. The margin of error at the sample median for the South Eugene sub sample of 310 is plus or minus six percent. The margin of error at the sample median for the West Eugene sub sample of 282 is plus or minus seven percent.

Paid Sick Leave Familiarity by Eugene Region

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Familiarity is high and relatively constant throughout the city.

QUESTION: How familiar are you with the City of Eugene requiring businesses providing services within the city limits to offer sick time to employees on an annual basis: very familiar, somewhat familiar, somewhat unfamiliar, or very unfamiliar?

METHODOLOGY: Pooled dataset of 800 cases based on four survey. Each survey was comprised of 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2014 General election voters. These were conducted on July 8-10, July 23-24, July 30-31, and September 15-16, 2014. The margin of error at the sample median for the North Eugene sub sample of 208 is plus or minus seven percent. The margin of error at the sample median for the South Eugene sub sample of 310 is plus or minus six percent. The margin of error at the sample median for the West Eugene sub sample of 282 is plus or minus seven percent.

Eugene City Council Approval by Eugene Region

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Interestingly, the regional differences in city council job approval match those of Mayor Piercy.

This pattern was true throughout the 1990s. It was broken during in 2001 during the PeaceHealth/RiverBend debate. Mayor Torrey’s ratings soared and the city council’s plummeted.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job the Eugene City Council is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: Pooled dataset of 800 cases based on four survey. Each survey was comprised of 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2014 General election voters. These were conducted on July 8-10, July 23-24, July 30-31, and September 15-16, 2014. The margin of error at the sample median for the North Eugene sub sample of 208 is plus or minus seven percent. The margin of error at the sample median for the South Eugene sub sample of 310 is plus or minus six percent. The margin of error at the sample median for the West Eugene sub sample of 282 is plus or minus seven percent.

Piercy Approval by Eugene Region

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As one would expect, Mayor Piercy’s job approval is much higher in south Eugene than in other city regions.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job Eugene Mayor Kitty Piercy is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: Pooled dataset of 800 cases based on four survey. Each survey was comprised of 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2014 General election voters. These were conducted on July 8-10, July 23-24, July 30-31, and September 15-16, 2014. The margin of error at the sample median for the North Eugene sub sample of 208 is plus or minus seven percent. The margin of error at the sample median for the South Eugene sub sample of 310 is plus or minus six percent. The margin of error at the sample median for the West Eugene sub sample of 282 is plus or minus seven percent.

Piercy Favorability Rating by Eugene Region

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As one would expect, Mayor Piercy is seen far more favorably in south Eugene than in north or west Eugene.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kitty Piercy? IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?

METHODOLOGY: Pooled dataset of 800 cases based on four survey. Each survey was comprised of 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2014 General election voters. These were conducted on July 8-10, July 23-24, July 30-31, and September 15-16, 2014. The margin of error at the sample median for the North Eugene sub sample of 208 is plus or minus seven percent. The margin of error at the sample median for the South Eugene sub sample of 310 is plus or minus six percent. The margin of error at the sample median for the West Eugene sub sample of 282 is plus or minus seven percent.