Comparing Piercy’s and Torrey’s Ratings

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This post compares two Eugene mayors, Kitty Piercy this past February, and Jim Torrey in May of 2003, at about the same time before they left office. Piercy has announced she’s leaving office in January 2017 and Torrey left office in January 2005.

Several things jump out. First, Torrey’s positive job performance (total of excellent and good) was more than ten points higher than Piercy’s is now. In general, Torrey’s ratings were higher than Piercy’s. Second, Piercy is significantly more polarizing among the electorate with 50% rating her either excellent or poor compared to half that, 25%, rating Torrey that way. Third, the “Don’t Know” percentages are about the same and are very low. Virtually everyone has an opinion about the mayor, then and now.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job ________ is doing as Mayor: excellent, good, fair, poor?
Jim Torrey
Kitty Piercy

METHODOLOGY: 200 telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely general election voters were conducted the nights of May 7-8, 2003 for Mayor Torrey and Feb. 16-18, 2015 for Mayor Piercy. The margin of error at the median is 7% for each of these surveys.

Piercy Job Performance Ratings Past Two Years

 

 

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Mayor Piercy has been in net negative territory since January 2013.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job Kitty Piercy is doing as Mayor: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely general election voters were conducted the nights of Jan. 23-24, June 10-11, Sep. 23-24, and Dec. 4-5, 2013, Feb. 11-14, May 27-28, Sep. 15-16, and Dec. 2-3, 2014 and Feb. 16-18, 2015.. The margin of error at the median is 7% for each of these surveys.

Lane Vehicle Registration Fee Behind

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The proposed Lane County Vehicle Registration Fee is losing in a landslide.

There are three factors that alone or in combination might explain this. First, Lane County generally does not like new kinds of taxes or fees, such as income taxes and the like. They usually lose in landslides. Just look at Mayor Piercy’s failures in Eugene. In that sense, this result is to be expected.

Second, it might not be clear to the general public how this measure fits in the larger context. The campaign for the successful jail levy had its direct roots in the 2009 “Fund the Jail” grass roots campaign. By contrast, road maintenance didn’t seem to figure at all in last May’s campaigns. Commissioner Bozievich, for example, emphasized the economy and public safety.

Finally, the Kitzhaber resignation could be compounding the measure’s woes. Other research implies that Oregon’s confidence in its government took a huge hit and the vehicle registration might just be on the ballot at the wrong time.

How to balance these? These results are consistent with other polls our company has done in the area. That observation supports the first two factors. The extremely low “don’t know” percentage supports the third factor – people will say “no” to anything government proposes. This should not be underestimated. Under usual circumstances, the “don’t know” should be closer to 20 percent.

QUESTION: Lane County plans to place this measure on the May ballot:
To ensure road safety by modestly increasing vehicle registration fee.  Shall streets, roads, and bridges be kept safe and well maintained through a $35/year increase in the vehicle registration fee? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 200 likely Lane County May Special Election voters were conducted March 9-10, 2015 and April 1-2, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

REFERENCES: Polling presented at the Dorchester Conference: http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/03/at_seaside_conference_gop_mode.html.

Just Before Resignation: The Kitzhaber Recall Coalition

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Just before he resigned, a vast majority of Democrats would still have supported Gov. Kitzhaber against a recall effort. As expected, Republicans strongly supported recall. Independents were also in favor of recall.

No other variable, besides partisanship, was statistically significant at either a primary or secondary level.

Kitzhaber announced February 13 that he would resign on February 18.

QUESTION: Recall petitions have been filed against Governor Kitzhaber. By law, they cannot begin collecting signatures until July. However, if the election were held today would you vote to recall or to keep Governor Kitzhaber in office? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 400 likely Oregon gubernatorial general election voters were conducted February 9-11, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region.

“Leaners” were grouped with recall/keep responses for analytic purposes.

This poll was conducted entirely at the expense of The Lindholm Company, LLC without outside support.

Kitzhaber’s Job Performance Rating Just Before His Resignation

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Just before his resignation, Gov. Kitzhaber was still above water among Democrats (49% to 48%). He was significantly under water among Independents, by a two-to-one margin. As expected, he was far underwater among Republicans.

The importance of religion came up as a secondary variable among Democrats. The less religious were more supportive of Kitzhaber.

“Excellent” and “good” are generally grouped together to measure job approval and “fair” and “poor” are generally grouped together to measure job disapproval.

Kitzhaber announced February 13 that he would resign on February 18.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job Governor John Kitzhaber is doing, excellent, good, fair or poor?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 400 likely Oregon gubernatorial general election voters were conducted February 9-11, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region.

This poll was conducted entirely at the expense of The Lindholm Company, LLC with

Cumulative Turnout Percentage by Date by 2014 Primary Turnout

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Voters in the primary voted earlier and established a wide turnout advantage over those who did not vote in the primary.

The turnout difference is dramatic. Fully 96% of those who voted in the primary returned for the general versus only 58% of those who skipped the primary.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Percentage of Total Turnout by Date by 2014 Primary Turnout

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Voters in the primary voted earlier than those who had not voted in the primary.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Cumulative Turnout Percentage by Date by Vote Propensity

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Higher propensity voters in Oregon turn around that old Chicago political machine admonition about turnout: they vote earlier and they more often vote.

DEFINITION: Vote frequency measured as number of times voted in the preceding two primaries (2012 and 2014) and two generals (2010 and 2012).

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Percentage of Total Turnout by Date by Vote Propensity

 

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Higher propensity voters generally return their ballots earlier.

DEFINITION: Vote frequency measured as number of times voted in the preceding two primaries (2012 and 2014) and two generals (2010 and 2012).

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Oregon Compulsory Vaccination Law Expansion Opposed

 

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Oregonians oppose making the compulsory vaccination exemptions harder to get.

In general, Oregonians do not like restricting individual rights unless there is a good reason. An anti-compulsory vaccination initiative ballot measure nearly became law in November 1916. When it came up again in November 1920, it was defeated in a landslide. Oregonians had learned.

QUESTION: Do you support or oppose restricting the ability of parents to exempt their children from compulsory vaccination?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 400 likely Oregon gubernatorial general election voters were conducted February 9-11, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

This poll was conducted entirely at the expense of The Lindholm Company, LLC without outside support.