Lindholm Company Blog

The Republican Presidential nominee did better in Oregon than in either California or Washington in 2004 and 2008.

Subsequent blog postings will refer back to the fact that Oregon is more Republican in national politics than either California or Washington.

The numbers are the two party Republican share of the vote.

Note that Oregon was a better Bush state than California or Washington in 2000, as well, though Nader’s vote makes the analysis more complicated.

Sources of data: Oregon Secretary of State; California Secretary of State; Washington Secretary of State.

Naturally the colors are Duck green, Husky purple, and Bear blue.

Geography is the biggest determinant of support. All candidates are from Lane County. The Eugene TV market includes much of the 4th Congressional District. This explains Rick Dancer’s strength around the district. Sid Leiken is Mayor of Springfield in Lane County and his  family is from the Roseburg area in Douglas County.

Gender is a secondary factor. It is interesting that there is a gender divide between Dancer (favored by women) and Leiken (favored by men) in the southern part of the district (Douglas and Josephine counties).

This graphic was constructed using CHAID (CHi-squared Automatic Interdaction Detection) methodology.

Definitions of regions: Lane Metro (City of Eugene, City of Springfield, and surrounding urbanized area), Lane Rural (Lane County outside of Lane Metro area), Coast (Coos and Curry counties), North (Benton and Linn counties), and South (Douglas and Josephine counties). Note that parts of Benton and Josephine counties are in neighboring congressional districts. Only the 4th District portions were surveyed.

Democrats are significantly less likely to approve of the 49ers move.

Question: Do you approve or disapprove of the 49ers football team moving from the City of San Francisco to the City of Santa Clara?

This post is based on the latest survey with questions about the 49ers moving to Santa Clara.

The survey was conducted August 18-20, 2008 and consists of 400 telephone interviews of likely November 2008 Santa Clara County General Election voters. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. A model of the sample population was used to insure a representative sample.

The overall results are at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=51

The support for Rick Dancer is constant between high likelihood Primary voters and low likelihood Primary voters.

As would be expected, Sid Leiken and Jack Roberts, who have both held political office, are stronger among those who more likely to vote.

The margin of error for the high likelihood Primary voter subsample is 6%. The margin of error for the low likelihood subsample is 8%.

Question: If the Republican Primary election for Congress were held today, would you vote for: Rick Dancer, Sid Leiken, or Jack Roberts [ROTATE NAMES]?

The survey consists of 400 telephone interviews of likely 2010 Republican Primary voters conducted March 1 through 3, 2009. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. A model of the sample population was used to insure a representative sample.

Lindholm Research is not currently (as of posting) employed by any candidate for the 4th Congressional District. This survey was conducted as part of a long term research project and was completely funded by Lindholm Research.

Reports from other elements of this and other research projects will be made from time to time on the blog.

For other information from this survey, please see these:
Overall ballot: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=84
Name ID: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=156

Geography has a strong influence on ballot support.  As is typical, the patterns for the individual candidates mix to determine the relative support by region. Rick Dancer, is strongest in the Eugene television market. Sid Leiken is strongest in Lane County and Douglas County. Jack Roberts, who has run statewide many times, has the same strength throughout the district.

Question: If the Republican Primary election for Congress were held today, would you vote for: Rick Dancer, Sid Leiken, or Jack Roberts [ROTATE NAMES]?

The survey consists of 400 telephone interviews of likely 2010 Republican Primary voters conducted March 1 through 3, 2009. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. A model of the sample population was used to insure a representative sample.

Lindholm Research is not currently (as of posting) employed by any candidate for the 4th Congressional District. This survey was conducted as part of a long term research project and was completely funded by Lindholm Research.

Reports from other elements of this and other research projects will be made from time to time on the blog.

For other information from this survey, please see these:
Overall ballot: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=84
Name ID: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=156

Voters 44 and younger are much more likely to approve of the move than voters 45 and older. As with the division due to gender, this probably is because because of greater interest.

Question: Do you approve or disapprove of the 49ers football team moving from the City of San Francisco to the City of Santa Clara?

This post is based on the latest survey with questions about the 49ers moving to Santa Clara.

The survey was conducted August 18-20, 2008 and consists of 400 telephone interviews of likely November 2008 Santa Clara County General Election voters. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. A model of the sample population was used to insure a representative sample.

The overall results are at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=51

Rick Dancer’s advantage is greatest among the voters aged 44 and younger. It’s interesting that Sid Leiken did better among those aged 18-34 and Jack Roberts did better among those aged 35-44.

Dancer still leads by a wide margin among those 45 and older, but the lead is much narrower. Sid Leiken and Jack Roberts are tied among those aged 45 and older.

Question: If the Republican Primary election for Congress were held today, would you vote for: Rick Dancer, Sid Leiken, or Jack Roberts [ROTATE NAMES]?

The survey consists of 400 telephone interviews of likely 2010 Republican Primary voters conducted March 1 through 3, 2009. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. A model of the sample population was used to insure a representative sample.

Lindholm Research is not currently (as of posting) employed by any candidate for the 4th Congressional District. This survey was conducted as part of a long term research project and was completely funded by Lindholm Research.

Reports from other elements of this and other research projects will be made from time to time on the blog.

For other information from this survey, please see these:
Overall ballot: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=84
Name ID: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=156

Dancer leads by a wide margin among both genders. However, Dancer’s lead among women is wider by a statistically significant margin.

Question: If the Republican Primary election for Congress were held today, would you vote for: Rick Dancer, Sid Leiken, or Jack Roberts [ROTATE NAMES]?

The survey consists of 400 telephone interviews of likely 2010 Republican Primary voters conducted March 1 through 3, 2009. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. A model of the sample population was used to insure a representative sample.

The margin of error at the subsample medians for genders is 7%.

Lindholm Research is not currently (as of posting) employed by any candidate for the 4th Congressional District. This survey was conducted as part of a long term research project and was completely funded by Lindholm Research.

Reports from other elements of this and other research projects will be made from time to time on the blog.

For other information from this survey, please see these:
Overall ballot: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=84
Name ID: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=156

As of August, 2008, men were significantly more likely to approve of the 49ers moving to Santa Clara than were women. Though not a revelation, this is likely because men are more likely to attend. As other demographics from this series of surveys are posted, the “likelihood to attend” impact will become more clear.

Question: Do you approve or disapprove of the 49ers football team moving from the City of San Francisco to the City of Santa Clara?

This post is based on the latest survey with questions about the 49ers moving to Santa Clara.

The survey was conducted August 18-20, 2008 and consists of 400 telephone interviews of likely November 2008 Santa Clara County General Election voters. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. A model of the sample population was used to insure a representative sample.

For the gender subsamples, the margin of error at the sample median is 7%. Therefore, the 8% gap in approval is statistically significant.

The overall results are at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=51

This post expands on an earlier post that contained the ballot contest results.

The name ID ratings give an idea of general strength in the district. This question shows how far ahead Rick Dancer currently is among the leading Republicans. A greater percentage of likely Republican Primary voters have a favorable rating of him than recognize the names of anyone else listed. Former statewide officeholder Jack Roberts and Springfield Mayor Sid Leiken are in a statistical tie trailing significantly.

It is reasonable to expect Dancer’s Name ID ratings to decline somewhat during 2009, though probably not enough to offset the current gap. The Leiken and Roberts Name ID ratings, on the other hand, should stay constant. This forecast assumes no significant changes in media profile, etc.

The exact question asked on the survey was: “Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me if you have heard of each. [If heard of then ask] Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ___.” The order of names was randomly varied for each respondent. No occupation or other description was included.

The survey consists of 400 telephone interviews of likely 2010 Republican Primary voters conducted March 1 through 3, 2009. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. A model of the sample population was used to insure a representative sample.

The survey was conducted as part of a long term research project and was completely funded by Lindholm Research. No candidate for the 4th District is a client of Lindholm Research as of this writing.

Please refer to: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=84 for associated ballot contest results.