Lindholm Company Blog

This graph shows the Republican recovery in Oregon starting with the 1938 election.

Prior to 1972, state legislative districts tended to follow county lines and could have a single member or have multiple members. One House District was split between Clackamas and Multnomah Counties during this period. The number of senate districts allocated to Multnomah County was six throughout this period.

Source: Oregon Secretary of State.

Non-persistent voters were least numerous in the eastern portion of the district. There is a slight correlation with regions that supported the recall.

The key point here is that, though the pro-recall side appears to have done better at Get-Out-The-Vote efforts, the anti-recall side did a good job as as well. It appears that most voter groups in District 7 are amenable to turnout efforts, within reason.

This map is based on estimates using the sources indicated below.

Sources of data: Santa Clara County Registrar of Voters; Labels and Lists of Bellevue Washington.

Persistence is defined as having voted in three or four of the previous four primary and general elections. It is usually considered a broad definition of primary voters and, under normal circumstances, would tend to overestimate the turnout in a 2010 Primary.

Income and then gender are the two most important demographic segmentation variables when it comes to what Oregon Republican Primary Election voters think is the top issue.

Among all Republicans, the economy is the top issue with taxes coming in second. This generally holds true for most of the demographic groups segmented. For those with incomes above $30,000, the economy and then taxes are the top issues. For lower income Republicans, the ranking changes.Men see taxes as the top issue above the economy, but women see economy as the top issue and education slipping in ahead of taxes as the second-place issue.

Details about the survey and the question asked:
What do feel is the top State of Oregon issue?
Economy  43%
Taxes   24%
Education  12%
Health care  9%
Crime   2%
Other   3%
Don’t know  7%

Survey comprised of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed September 14-16, 2009. Likelihood based on a turnout model. Margin of error at the sample median is +/- 5%.

Lindholm Company is not currently associated with any of the candidates in the contest.

This graph shows how Republicans won the district. The Democratic vote dropped significantly between 1932 and 1934 and the Republican vote stayed level. Hence, the Republican won. The Democratic vote total shot up again in 1936 and the Democratic nominee won.

This graph also shows the Republican recovery in Oregon starting with the 1938 election that persisted through the 1940s. The victories came from an increasing vote total.

The 1938 Republican winner was Homer Angell who remained in office until defeated by Tom McCall in the 1954 Republican Primary. McCall, in turn, lost to Democrat Edith Green in the 1954 General Election.

During the period 1930 through 1940, Oregon’s 3rd Congressional District boundary followed the Multnomah County boundary.

Source: Oregon Secretary of State.

This is the first in a series of posts looking back at the Nguyen Recall Election earlier this year.

The percentage of participating non-persistent voters was much higher than one would have expected. The most likely explanation is that one or more strong voter turnout efforts were run.

Regarding a District 7 June Primary, this implies that campaigns should build in a strong turnout operation.

These figures are based on estimates using the sources indicated below.

Sources of data: Santa Clara County Registrar of Voters; Labels and Lists of Bellevue Washington.

Persistence is defined as having voted in three or four of the previous four primary and general elections. It is usually considered a broad definition of primary voters and, under normal circumstances, would tend to overestimate the turnout in a 2010 Primary.

Unlike the Oregon candidates for Governor, where geography was the top variable dividing respondents, income is the top variable for determining support for candidates for President.

The most interesting contrast is between upper-income Republicans who support Romney and Gingrich relatively more and lower-income Republicans who support Huckabee and Palin relatively more. This result mirrors the split seen in other, national polling.

Details about the survey and the question asked:
Looking to 2012, if the Republican Primary election for President, if the election were held today, would you vote for:
Mitt Romney  24%
Mike Huckabee  22%
Sarah Palin  19%
Newt Gingrich  14%
Don’t know  22%

Survey comprised of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed September 14-16, 2009. Likelihood based on a turnout model. Margin of error at the sample median is +/- 5%.

Lindholm Company is not currently associated with any of the candidates in the contest.

This graph shows an interesting feature of Oregon politics during the 1930s. The Republican nominee narrowly won the district in 1934, 1938, and 1940.

This graph also shows the Republican recovery in Oregon starting with the 1938 election that persisted through the 1940s.

During the period 1930 through 1940, Oregon’s 3rd Congressional District boundary followed the Multnomah County boundary.

Source: Oregon Secretary of State.

The General Election vote had its foundations in the votes from the Primary Election. Reed built up his margin generally in the same areas in the General as he did in the Primary. Reed appears to have generally done better among the Cortese, Mulcahy, and Pandori voters than Chavez did.

Precincts are sorted by quintiles based on the difference between Reed’s percentage and Chavez’ percentage of the vote. The colors are arranged on a five-point color scale with blue being the most pro Reed and red being the most pro Chavez:
Blue: Reed +32% to +100%
Green: Reed +22% % to +32%
Yellow: Reed +13%  to +22%
Orange: A tie to Reed +13%
Red: Chavez +100% to tied

Sources of data: University of California at Berkeley, Institute of Government Affairs, Statewide Database; Santa Clara County Registrar of Voters.

The top variable determining the level of support is the respondent’s Congressional District.

The support is very geographically driven. Atkinson does relatively better in his home district (District 2: Eastern and Southern Oregon). Alley and Lim do relatively better in District 3 (Portland Area) and District 5 (Southeast Portland Suburbs and Mid-Willamette Valley).

Details about the survey and the question asked:
If the Republican Primary election for Governor were held today, would you vote for:
Jason Atkinson  15%
Allen Alley  13%
John Lim  4%
Don’t know  68%

Survey comprised of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed September 14-16, 2009. Likelihood based on a turnout model. Margin of error at the sample median is +/- 5%.

Lindholm Company is not currently associated with any of the candidates in the contest.

Source: Oregon Secretary of State