Lindholm Company Blog

This post takes another angle at the tracking surveys from the November 2007 election. It looks at the the interaction of the demographic variables and the dates of the tracking surveys.

The responses from the three tracking surveys were pooled and then segmenting using a standard CHAID analysis. This leads to a tree diagram.

Usually CHAID is used to analyze the demographics of a single survey, a single snapshot in time. Earlier posts on this blog have done that. This analysis pools all three tracking surveys and uses survey date as another demographic variable. This allows one to see how  key demographic groups responded to the campaign over time.

This analysis shows that Republicans, Other Registrants (NAVs and 3rd parties), and Democrats with less than a college degree all shifted significantly against Measure 50 between the September 10-12 survey (“9”) and the October 15-16 (“101”) survey. These groups remained opposing the measure throughout the rest of the campaign.

Only Democrats with a college degree or graduate school did not move strongly against the tax.

The three tracking surveys are designated 9 (Sept, 10-12 survey), 101 (Oct. 15-16 survey), and 102 (Oct. 29-30 survey).

QUESTION WORDING: “Now, I would like to ask you about the ballot measures on the November election. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 50: Amends constitution: dedicates funds to provide health care for children, fund tobacco prevention, through increased tobacco tax?”
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?Response categories:
1. Strongly Yes
2. Somewhat Yes
3. Lean Yes
4. Don’t Know
5. Lean No
6. Somewhat No
7. Strongly No

METHODOLOGY: All three surveys consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Special Election voters. The margin of error is five percent at the overall sample median. Likelihood was determined using a combination of modeling and screening potential respondents. Dates are as indicated in the graphs.

This graph shows the voter propensity by age for all California voters. As such, this serves as a baseline for the relationship between vote propensity and age. Upcoming posts will examine this relationship among various major California ethnic groups.

There are several evident spikes. Two are most prominent and interesting.  The spike at age 63, most evident among 4/4 voters, clearly signifies the beginning of the Baby Boom. The spike among the youngest voters is the “Obama” spike. Younger voters registered for the first time  just to participate in the 2008 General Election.

The vote propensity is the number of elections voted in, zero through four, out of the past four primaries and generals (June and November of 2006 and June and November of 2008).

The graph has five lines, one each representing the percentage of total registered voters by each year of age for each of the five vote propensity levels.

The vote propensity was based on four elections: the 2006 June Primary and November General and the 2008 June Primary and November General.

Source: Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

Approval for BART to San Jose has increased signficantly. In general, as plans move closer to completion and there are no problems, approval increases. Also, it is possible that the depth and length of the economic downturn has increased general favorability for mass transit.

Question:
Do you approve or disapprove of building BART to San Jose? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

Methodology:
The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Santa Clara County June 2010 Primary voters conducted October 26-28, 2009. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.
The earlier survey was conducted June 16-18, 2009 using the same methodology.

Oregon’s political class are focused, for the moment, on the upcoming January 26, 2010 Special Election.

They say that past is prologue.  That’s led some observers to look at the November 2007 Special Election for lessons about the January 2010 Special Election.

If that’s so, then the tracking for November 2007’s Tobacco Tax, Measure 50,  should be informative.

Lindholm Research conducted three tracking polls during the two months prior to the Nov. ’07 Special Election. Both Measure 49 and Measure 50 were included. The Measure 50 results are below.

The graph shows the first three data points which are the three tracking surveys. The final election result is the final, 6-Nov., data point. The “Total Yes,” “Total No,” and “Don’t know,” are presented.

The next graph assigns the “Don’t knows” proportionately based on the share of decided voters who indicated they would vote yes or no.

What this shows is that, almost as soon as the “No” media campaign began, the “Yes” support collapsed. The support levels then remained stable the final month of campaign.

QUESTION WORDING: “Now, I would like to ask you about the ballot measures on the November election. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 50: Amends constitution: dedicates funds to provide health care for children, fund tobacco prevention, through increased tobacco tax?”
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?Response categories:
1. Strongly Yes
2. Somewhat Yes
3. Lean Yes
4. Don’t Know
5. Lean No
6. Somewhat No
7. Strongly No.

METHODOLOGY: All three surveys consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Special Election voters. The margin of error is five percent at the overall sample median. Likelihood was determined using a combination of modeling and screening potential respondents. Dates are as indicated in the graphs.

Approval for the 49er’s to move to Santa Clara has increased signficantly over time. The improvement is probably due to the elimination of doubts.

Question:
Do you approve or disapprove of moving the 49er’s football team to Santa Clara? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

Methodology:
The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Santa Clara County June 2010 Primary voters conducted October 26-28, 2009. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.
The earlier survey was conducted June 16-18, 2009 using the same methodology.

Approval of moving the A’s to San Jose has remained roughly constant.

Question:
Do you approve or disapprove of moving the A’s baseball team to San Jose? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

Methodology:
The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Santa Clara County June 2010 Primary voters conducted October 26-28, 2009. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.
The earlier survey was conducted June 16-18, 2009 using the same methodology.

It appears that the impact of Republican populism has reached Oregon. Huckabee and Palin, the more populist candidates, are almost directly contrasted with Gingrich and Romney. Gingrich and Palin, being nearer the center, are taking up positions that Romney and Huckabee, respectively, need to occupy in order to gain support.

This kind of division will need to be a source of future research both for candidates in the 2010 Oregon Primary, and in other primaries, and for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination contest.

Details about the survey and the question asked:

Looking to 2012, if the Republican Primary election for President, if the election were held today, would you vote for:
Mitt Romney  24%
Mike Huckabee  22%
Sarah Palin  19%
Newt Gingrich  14%
Don’t know  22%

What do feel is the top national issue?
Economy  44%
Deficit  24%
Social issues 13%
Afghanistan  4%
Health care  3%
Education  3%
Other   5%
Don’t know  3%

Survey comprised of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed September 14-16, 2009. Likelihood based on a turnout model. Margin of error at the sample median is +/- 5%.

Lindholm Company is not currently associated with any of the candidates in the contest.

Familiarity with the BART to San Jose project has remained high and constant.

Question:
How familiar are you with building BART to San Jose? Is that very familiar, somewhat familiar, somewhat unfamiliar or very unfamiliar?

Methodology:
The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Santa Clara County June 2010 Primary voters conducted October 26-28, 2009. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.
The earlier survey was conducted June 16-18, 2009 using the same methodology.

Familiarity with the 49er’s plan to move to Santa Clara has remained roughly constant.

Question:
How familiar are you with moving the 49er’s football team to Santa Clara? Is that very familiar, somewhat familiar, somewhat unfamiliar or very unfamiliar?

Methodology:
The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Santa Clara County June 2010 Primary voters conducted October 26-28, 2009. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.
The earlier survey was conducted June 16-18, 2009 using the same methodology.

There is a significant spread between the three candidates that is probably driven by their geographical constituencies. Atkinson and Lim supporters also are concerned about taxes. Alley supporters also are concerned about the economy and economy.

Details about the survey and the question asked:
If the Republican Primary election for Governor were held today, would you vote for:
Jason Atkinson  15%
Allen Alley  13%
John Lim  4%
Don’t know  68%

What do feel is the top State of Oregon issue?
Economy  43%
Taxes   24%
Education  12%
Health care  9%
Crime   2%
Other   3%
Don’t know  7%

Survey comprised of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed September 14-16, 2009. Likelihood based on a turnout model. Margin of error at the sample median is +/- 5%.

Lindholm Company is not currently associated with any of the candidates in the contest.