Archive for January 2010

Turnout by Precinct in Eugene Metro as of Jan. 20 (Oregon Jan. 2010 Special Election)

This post looks at turnout as of end of day on Wednesday January 20 in the Eugene region as a percentage of registered voters. For the statewide data at the county level, please see: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=2265.

The  turnout by precinct for Lane County:

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For a larger version of the above map in pdf format: lane-m66m67-turnout

In general, the rural areas tend to have a higher turnout. This follows the statewide pattern.

The turnout by precinct for the Eugene-Springfield Metro Area:

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The turnout as of January 20 is definitely lower in many of the more liberal areas of Eugene.

For a larger version of the above map in pdf format: lane-m66m67-turnout-zoom

Source of precinct geography: Lane Council of Governments. Source of voter participation data: Oregon Secretary of State.

Turnout by Precinct in Portland Metro as of Jan. 20 (Oregon Jan. 2010 Special Election)

This post looks at turnout as of end of day on Wednesday January 20 in the Portland region as a percentage of registered voters. For the statewide data at the county level, please see: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=2265.

The  turnout by precinct for the entire Tri-County area:

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Turnout is definitely higher in the rural areas and generally declines as one moves inwards towards Portland. This is evident in the next map.

For a larger version of the above map in pdf format: tri-county-m66m67-turnout

The turnout by precinct in the vicinity of the City of Portland:

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For a larger version of the above map in pdf format: tri-county-m66m67-turnout-zoom

Source of precinct geography: Metro. Source of voter participation data: Oregon Secretary of State

Turnout by County as of Jan. 20 (Oregon Jan. 2010 Special Election)

This post begins a series of three posts that cover voter turnout as a percentage of voter registration for the upcoming January 26 Special Election.

 This particular post looks at turnout as of end of day on Wednesday January 20 by Oregon county as a percentage of registered voters.

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In general, the rural counties have a significantly higher turnout than the urban counties. To date, the more Republican parts of the state generally have the higher turnout.

This map can be seen in a larger, pdf, format: statewide-m66m67-turnout

January 20 was chosen as a point of analysis because it is near the date when 50% of the voters who will return ballots have returned ballots. There is variation among elections. Obviously, we don’t yet know how many will turn in their ballots.

The political implications of earlier turnout are not clearcut. Several explanations have been offered for earlier turnout, each with its own implications. The most common are:
1. Earlier voters tend to be more persistent voters (older, more social capital, etc.).
2. Earlier voters tend to have greater enthusiasm.
3. More effective Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) efforts tend to create earlier voters.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

BART to San Jose Plan Familiarity Trend: Key Demographics

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The familiarity level remained constant between the June and October 2009 surveys. The least familiar group are those aged 77 and older.

METHODOLOGY
The data were analyzed using CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) methodology.

The data from the two surveys were pooled

The data come from two surveys, each of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Santa Clara County Primary voters were conducted first on June 16-18, 2009 and then, second, on October 26-28, 2009.

Question:
How familiar are you with building BART to San Jose? Is that very familiar, somewhat familiar, somewhat unfamiliar or very unfamiliar?

The trend top lines are posted here:
http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1508

2002 Oregon Republican Gubernatorial Primary

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Mannix won the primary by a comparatively slim margin. Roberts’ wide support from the Oregon Republican establishment did not get him through. The state’s Republican establishment failed to get their chosen candidates nominated in both 2002 and 2006.  In fact, public polling had Saxton running second and Roberts third going into the final stretch.

Mannix was the more conservative candidate, yet he barely took first.

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Counties that Saxton won are in yellow.
Counties that Mannix won are in red.
Counties that Roberts won are in orange.

Geography is at least as important as ideology in deciding the Republican nominee. Geography is more important than among Democrats

Oregon 2002 Republican Primary Statewide Results
Mannix  35.24%
Roberts  29.47%
Saxton  28.11%
Other   7.18%

Source of election returns: Oregon Secretary of State

Measure 66 and Measure 67 Base Vote Trend: Key Demographics

 

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This post is an analysis of data originally presented in an earlier post: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=2054. Please see that post for additional context.

The campaigns appear largely to be reinforcing voter attitudes rather than changing minds.

There is no key demographic that appears to be driving the increase in support.

The strongest supporters are Democrats and low-income independents. Highly educated Democrats, Obama Democrats, are the strongest supporters. The strongest opponents are Republican men. Republican women and high-income independents come next. This division among independents along income lines makes sense because measures 66 and 67, in combination, increase Oregon’s tax progressivity.

METHODOLOGY
Measure 66 Ballot Question Wording:
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 66: Raises tax on household income at and above $250,000 (and $125,000 for individual filers). Reduces income taxes on unemployment benefits in 2009. Provides funds currently budgeted for education, health care, public safety, other services.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

Both surveys consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely January Oregon Special election voters. The first survey was conducted November 30 through December 2, 2009. The second survey was conducted January 4 through 6, 2010. The margin of error for both surveys at the sample median is 5 percent (with 95 percent confidence).

CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) was used to construct the graphic. The data from both surveys were pooled to form the sample for the analysis.

This survey was conducted as part of a long-term project studying Oregon politics and not for any political committee. As of the time this survey was conducted, Lindholm Research is not working for either the Yes or No sides.

Measure 66 and Measure 67 Top Line Base Vote Trend

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This post is an analysis of data originally presented in an earlier post: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=2054. Please see that post for additional context.

The base voter groups are those voters who are either voting yes on both measures, in the yes base, or voting no on both measures, in the no base.

This result parallels the measure 66 and 67 results. The percentage of yes base voters is increasing and the percentage of no base voters is remaining constant.

METHODOLOGY
Measure 66 Ballot Question Wording:
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 66: Raises tax on household income at and above $250,000 (and $125,000 for individual filers). Reduces income taxes on unemployment benefits in 2009. Provides funds currently budgeted for education, health care, public safety, other services.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

Both surveys consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely January Oregon Special election voters. The first survey was conducted November 30 through December 2, 2009. The second survey was conducted January 4 through 6, 2010. The margin of error for both surveys at the sample median is 5 percent (with 95 percent confidence).

This survey was conducted as part of a long-term project studying Oregon politics and not for any political committee. As of the time this survey was conducted, Lindholm Research is not working for either the Yes or No sides.

49er’s Santa Clara Move Familiarity Trend: Key Demographics

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Familiarity remained constant between the June and October 2009 surveys. The most familiar group are those aged 18 to 59.

METHODOLOGY
The data were analyzed using CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) methodology.

The data from the two surveys were pooled

The data come from two surveys, each of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Santa Clara County Primary voters were conducted first on June 16-18, 2009 and then, second, on October 26-28, 2009.

Question:
How familiar are you with moving the 49er’s football team to Santa Clara? Is that very familiar, somewhat familiar, somewhat unfamiliar or very unfamiliar?

The trend top lines are posted here:
http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1505

2002 Oregon Democratic Gubernatorial Primary

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Kulongoski won the primary by a wide margin. Kulongoski was widely supported by the party establishment. The Oregon Democratic establishment has generally gotten their nominee in recent decades. Historically, Democratic Gubernatorial primaries are much less likely to be seriously contested than Republican.

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Counties (all) that Kulongoski won are in blue.

Oregon 2002 Democratic Primary Statewide Results
Kulongoski 48.21%
Hill  26.05%
Stein  21.60%
Other   4.14%

Source of election returns: Oregon Secretary of State

Measure 67 Trend: Key Demographics

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The campaigns appear largely to be reinforcing voter attitudes rather than changing minds.

The strongest supporters are Democrats. Non-major-party voters (independents) are in the middle. They lean slightly in support. The strongest opponents are Republican men. Republican women, as a group, are only voting no by a small margin.

There is no key demographic that appears to be driving the increase in support, though the close margin among Republican women should be a source of concern to the “no” side.

Democrats appear to be better mobilized as “yes” voters than Republicans are mobilized as “no” voters on Measure 67.

The associated top line results for measures 66 and 67 are posted at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=2054.

METHODOLOGY
Measure 67 Ballot Question Wording:
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 67: Raises $10 Corporate Minimum Tax, Business Minimum Tax, Corporate Profits Tax. Provides funds currently budgeted for education, health care, public safety, other services.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

Both surveys consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely January Oregon Special election voters. The first survey was conducted November 30 through December 2, 2009. The second survey was conducted January 4 through 6, 2010. The margin of error for both surveys at the sample median is 5 percent (with 95 percent confidence).

CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) was used to construct the graphic. The data from both surveys were pooled to form the sample for the analysis.

This survey was conducted as part of a long-term project studying Oregon politics and not for any political committee. As of the time this survey was conducted, Lindholm Research is not working for either the Yes or No sides.