Archive for January 2010

Measure 66 Trend: Key Demographics

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The campaigns appear largely to be reinforcing voter attitudes rather than changing minds.

There is no key demographic that appears to be driving the increase in support. The strongest supporters are Democrats and low-income independents. The strongest opponents are Republican men. Republican women and high-income independents come next.

This division among independents along income lines makes sense because Measure 66 would be an increase in personal income tax rates for higher income Oregonians.

The associated top line results for measures 66 and 67 are posted at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=2054.

METHODOLOGY
Measure 66 Ballot Question Wording:
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 66: Raises tax on household income at and above $250,000 (and $125,000 for individual filers). Reduces income taxes on unemployment benefits in 2009. Provides funds currently budgeted for education, health care, public safety, other services.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

Both surveys consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely January Oregon Special election voters. The first survey was conducted November 30 through December 2, 2009. The second survey was conducted January 4 through 6, 2010. The margin of error for both surveys at the sample median is 5 percent (with 95 percent confidence).

CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) was used to construct the graphic. The data from both surveys were pooled to form the sample for the analysis.

This survey was conducted as part of a long-term project studying Oregon politics and not for any political committee. As of the time this survey was conducted, Lindholm Research is not working for either the Yes or No sides.

Measure 66 and Measure 67 Top Line Trend: Update

 Survey: Measures 66 and 67 Gain But Election Outcome Up for Grabs
 
In polling conducted Monday through Wednesday of this week measures 66 and 67 have gained from early December. Measure 66 leads 45% Yes to 34% No, up from 40% Yes to 36% No, and Measure 67 leads 51% Yes to 34% No, up from 46% Yes to 33% No.

The gains for the yes side are probably due, in part, to the proponents’ money advantage.

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 Measure 66
Yes: 45% (1/4-6) up from 40% (11/30-12/2)
Don’t know: 21% (1/4-6) from 25% (11/30-12/2)
No: 34% (1/4-6) from 36% (11/30-12/2)

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Measure 67
Yes: 51% (1/4-6) up from 46% (11/30-12/2)
Don’t know: 15% (1/4-6) down from 21% (11/30-12/2)
No: 34% (1/4-6) from 33% (11/30-12/2)
 
The electorate is only starting the focus on the election. The undecided percentages are still relatively high at 21% for Measure 66 and 15% for Measure 67.

Turnout is a factor. The model used above assumes a relatively high turnout, on the order of the November 2007 Special Election. Measures 66 and 67 have gained among the most motivated voters, but still would do less well in a low-turnout election. Looking at only the most highly motivated voters, opposition to both 66 and 67 increases, but both measures remain ahead. Measure 66 would lead by 47% Yes to 38% No and Measure 67 would lead by 50% Yes to 40% No.

METHODOLOGY
Measure 66 Ballot Question Wording:
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 66: Raises tax on household income at and above $250,000 (and $125,000 for individual filers). Reduces income taxes on unemployment benefits in 2009. Provides funds currently budgeted for education, health care, public safety, other services.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

Measure 67 Ballot Question Wording:
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 67: Raises $10 Corporate Minimum Tax, Business Minimum Tax, Corporate Profits Tax. Provides funds currently budgeted for education, health care, public safety, other services.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

Both surveys consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely January Oregon Special election voters. The first survey was conducted November 30 through December 2, 2009. The second survey was conducted January 4 through 6, 2010. The margin of error for both surveys at the sample median is 5 percent (with 95 percent confidence).

This survey was conducted as part of a long-term project studying Oregon politics and not for any political committee. As of the time this survey was conducted, Lindholm Research is not working for either the Yes or No sides.

A’s San Jose Move Familiarity Trend: Key Demographics

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The familiarity declined between the June and October 2009 surveys.  This decline was general and there was no single segment that drove this decline.

Males from Districts 1, 2, and 5 were the least familiar with the plan.

METHODOLOGY
The data were analyzed using CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) methodology.

The data from the two surveys were pooled

The data come from two surveys, each of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Santa Clara County Primary voters were conducted first on June 16-18, 2009 and then, second, on October 26-28, 2009.

Question:
How familiar are you with moving the A’s baseball team to San Jose? Is that very familiar, somewhat familiar, somewhat unfamiliar or very unfamiliar?

The trend top lines are posted here:
http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1501

An Early Look at Oregon Redistricting (2008 Census Estimates)

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This map provides a preliminary look, based on 2008 data, of how state legislative seats will be shifted due to the 2011 redistricting. The more red the county the greater (hotter) the percentage increase or the more blue the smaller (cooler) the percentage increase in estimated population between the 2000 Census and the July 1, 2008 population estimate. Please keep in mind, first, that the map presents are only relative changes and, second, that geographic size does not always correlate to population size.

The counties expected to gain the most representation in the state legislature are (in house seats):
Washington 57% of a state house seat.
Deschutes 49% of a state house seat.
Polk  13% of a state house seat.
Clackamas  9% of a state house seat.

The counties expected to lose the most representation in the state legislature are (in house seats):
Multnomah -27% of a state house seat.
Lane  -18% of a state house seat.
Douglas  -11% of a state house seat.
Coos  -10% of a state house seat.

The senate’s gains and losses would be proportionate, only smaller.

It is possible that Oregon will gain one congressional district.
If so, the counties with the greatest gain would be the larger counties:
Washington 19% of a congressional seat.
Multnomah 17% of a congressional seat.
Clackamas 11% of a congressional seat.
Deschutes  8% of a congressional seat.
Marion   8% of a congressional seat.
Lane   8% of a congressional seat.
Jackson   5% of a congressional seat.

The increase in representation would counterbalance the relative population losses in comparison to other counties.

These counties would lose representation, though the loss would be less than 0.5% of a congressional seat.
Gilliam
Grant
Harney
Sherman
Wheeler

Please remember that redistricting can be a quirky process and that these estimates are population weights only, not measurements of actual political power after the redistricting process. Future posts are planned that will provide updated information and analysis as the 2011 reapportionment approaches.

Source of data: U. S. Census
Estimates of congressional seat gains and losses: Polidata, 12/23/09 press release.