Archive for February 2010

Ballot Return Demographics for Jan. 2010 Oregon Election: Gender

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Men and women who voted returned their ballots at almost the exact same rate.

This graph represents the share of those who eventually voted who had returned their ballots by the date indicated. All ballots were returned by Jan. 26.

Sources of data: Oregon Secretary of State; Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington. The analysis is entirely by Lindholm Company, LLC.

An Early Look at Washington Redistricting (2008 Census Estimates)

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This map provides a preliminary look, based on 2008 data, of how state legislative seats will be shifted due to the 2011 redistricting. The more red the county the greater (hotter) the percentage increase or the more blue the smaller (cooler) the percentage increase in estimated population between the 2000 Census and the July 1, 2008 population estimate. Please keep in mind, first, that the map presents are only relative changes and, second, that geographic size does not always correlate to population size.

The counties expected to gain the most representation in the state legislature are (in legislative districts):
Clark  31%
Franklin 13%
Thurston 11%
Whatcom   8%
Snohomish  8%

The counties expected to lose the most representation in the state legislature are (in legislative districts):
King  -41%
Kitsap  -13%
Yakima  -10%
It is possible that Washington will gain one congressional district.
If so, the counties with the greatest gain would be:
King  21%
Pierce  13%
Clark  12%
Snohomish 12%

If so, the counties with the greatest loss would be in the smaller counties.

Please remember that redistricting can be a quirky process and that these estimates are population weights only, not measurements of actual political power after the redistricting process. Future posts are planned that will provide updated information and analysis as the 2011 reapportionment approaches.

Source of data: U. S. Census
Estimates of congressional seat gains and losses: Polidata, 12/23/09 press release.

BART to San Jose Plan Approval Trend: Key Demographics

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The approval increased significantly between the June and October 2009 surveys. Democrats and younger non-major-party (Other) voters, aged 46 and younger, were consistently the strongest supporters of BART to San Jose.

The largest increase in support between June and October occurred among Republicans aged 54 and older.

METHODOLOGY
The data were analyzed using CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) methodology.

The data from the two surveys were pooled

The data come from two surveys, each of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Santa Clara County Primary voters were conducted first on June 16-18, 2009 and then, second, on October 26-28, 2009.

Question:
Do you approve or disapprove of building BART to San Jose? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

The trend top lines are posted here:
http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1517

1994 Oregon Republican Gubernatorial Primary

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The 1994 Republican Gubernatorial Primary has been perhaps the most clearly ideological Republican Gubernatorial Primary in Oregon between 1958 and the present. Smith was the conservative and Berkman was the moderate. Smith won the primary by a relatively narrow margin.

Despite the sharp ideological contrast, geography was still key. Smith’s victory had an important geographical element.

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The counties that Smith won are in red.
The counties that Berkman won are in yellow.

Smith won much of his former Congressional district and most of the more rural western Oregon counties. Berkman won Multnomah and Washington counties and split eastern Oregon. The two candidates ran relatively even statewide, with, perhaps, a slight edge to Berkman, but Smith built up in margin in his former congressional district. Without his base in the 5th Congressional District, it is unclear if Smith would have won.

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The redder the tint, the better Smith did. The more yellow the tint, the better Berkman did. Keep in mind that a relatively narrow margin in a large county, like Multnomah, means a much larger victory margin than a big win in a central or eastern Oregon county.

Oregon 2006 Republican Primary Statewide Results
Smith  49.52%
Berkman  40.55%
Other   9.94%

Source of election returns: Oregon Secretary of State

An Early Look at Illinois Redistricting (2008 Census Estimates)

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 This map provides a preliminary look, based on 2008 data, of how state legislative seats will be shifted due to the 2011 redistricting. The more red the county the greater (hotter) the percentage increase or the more blue the smaller (cooler) the percentage increase in estimated population between the 2000 Census and the July 1, 2008 population estimate. Please keep in mind, first, that the map presents are only relative changes and, second, that geographic size does not always correlate to population size.

The counties expected to gain the most representation in the state legislature are (in house seats):
Will  158%
Kane   87%
Macoupin  48%
Kendall   46%
La Salle  43%

The counties expected to lose the most representation in the state legislature are (in house seats):
Cook  -289%
Marion   -11%
DuPage    -9%
Rock Island   -8%
Peoria    -7%
Vermilion   -6%
Knox    -6%

The senate’s gains and losses would be proportionate, only smaller.

Illinois is expected to lose one congressional district.
Despite the loss statewide, there would be some counties that would actually gain congressional representation.
The counties with the greatest gain would be:
Will  18%
Kane   9%
Kendall   6%
Macoupin  5%

The counties with the greatest loss would be:
Cook -84%
DuPage  -9%
Essentially, Chicago would lose a congressional district and the rest of the state would keep its congressional representation.

Please remember that redistricting can be a quirky process and that these estimates are population weights only, not measurements of actual political power after the redistricting process. Future posts are planned that will provide updated information and analysis as the 2011 reapportionment approaches.

Source of data: U. S. Census
Estimates of congressional seat gains and losses: Polidata, 12/23/09 press release.

January 2010 Special Voter Turnout by Precinct: Eugene Metro

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Whereas the overall color pattern might appear fitting for Lane County, the colors in the map are actually keyed to the statewide average turnout. Blue is the lowest turnout percentage. Green is a turnout below the statewide average. Yellow is a turnout above the statewide average. Red is the highest turnout.

In general, turnout was higher in rural areas than in the urban areas, including small cities. Demographic factors probably explain this. Voters in rural areas are generally older.

For a more detailed view please see the pdf at: lane-turnout

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The turnout was lower in Springfield and in the more liberal areas of Eugene. This makes sense based alone on the demographics of voters in those areas, without considering the ideology.

For a more detailed view please see the pdf at: eugene-springfield-turnout

Source of precinct geography: Lane Council of Governments (LCOG). Source of voter participation data: Oregon Secretary of State

January Special Voter Turnout by Precinct: Tri-County Region

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The colors in the maps are keyed to the statewide average turnout of 62%. Blue is the lowest turnout percentage. Green is a turnout below the statewide average. Yellow is a turnout above the statewide average. Red is the highest turnout.

Turnout was south of Portland and in rural Washington County. Turnout was lowest in Multnomah County and in central Washington County.

For a more detailed view please see the pdf at: tri-county-turnout

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The turnout was higher in west Portland than in east Portland and the west slope area.

For a more detailed view please see the pdf at: portland-turnout

Source of precinct geography: Metro. Source of voter participation data: Oregon Secretary of State

49er’s Move to Santa Clara Approval Trend: Key Demographics

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The approval rate increased significantaly between June and October 2009. The increase was general and no single segment drove the increase. In additiona, approval rates do not vary greatly across demographic groups.

METHODOLOGY
The data were analyzed using CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) methodology.

The data from the two surveys were pooled

The data come from two surveys, each of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Santa Clara County Primary voters were conducted first on June 16-18, 2009 and then, second, on October 26-28, 2009.

Question:
Do you approve or disapprove of moving the 49er’s football team to Santa Clara? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

The trend top lines are posted here:
http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1514

2006 Oregon Republican Gubernatorial Primary

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Saxton won the primary by a wide margin. This was in the face of the wide support Mannix enjoyed from the Republican establishment. Much of the 2002 Roberts coalition lined up behind Mannix. The state’s Republican establishment failed to get their chosen candidates nominated in both 2002 and 2006.

Atkinson and Mannix were the more conservative candidates, yet they lost. Even with Mannix’ meltdown late in the campaign, these voters did not switch to Atkinson.

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Counties that Saxton won are in yellow.
Counties that Mannix won are in red.
Counties that Atkinson won are in orange.

Geography is at least as important as ideology in deciding the Republican nominee. Geography is more important than among Democrats

Oregon 2006 Republican Primary Statewide Results
Saxton  41.69%
Mannix  29.80%
Atkinson 22.31%
Other   6.21%

Source of election returns: Oregon Secretary of State