Archive for March 2010

2002 Oregon Democratic Gubernatorial Primary: Stein Relative Vote

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Stein was a Multnomah County Commissioner. Previously, Stein had been a state legislator from Portland. Stein was not supported by the Democratic establishment.

The critical importance for Democrats of winning the Portland media market is evident in this map. The Portland media market covers all of Oregon except from Lane County (Eugene) south in western Oregon, the northeast corner of the state, and the southern tier of counties in central and eastern Oregon.

The adage of “dominate the dominant media market” held true for Democrats.

Surprisingly, Stein did best in the 4th Congressional District of southwestern Oregon, far from her Portland base. However, this does make sense if we note that, as a Portland politician, she never built up much of a base there because the media market simply drowned her message. And, during the campaign, the other candidates simply crowded out her message in the other parts of the state.

Oregon 2002 Democratic Primary Statewide Results
Kulongoski 48.21%
Hill  26.05%
Stein  21.60%
Other   4.14%

Map range consists of shades of green with more intense green indicating more intense support.

For a general discussion of this contest, the statewide percentages for each of the three major candidates. and a map of which counties were won by which candidate please see this post: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1789

Source of election returns: Oregon Secretary of State

A’s Move Approval: Santa Clara County Trend

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The countywide approval rate of the A’s move to San Jose has remained roughly constant over time. Unlike in the City of San Jose, there was no statistically significant upward move countywide between October 2009 and February 2010.

Question:
Do you approve or disapprove of moving the A’s baseball team to San Jose? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY
The surveys each consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of Santa Clara County likely June 2010 Primary voters conducted June 16-18, 2009, October 26-28, 2009, and February 15-17, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median is 5 percent. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.