Lindholm Company Blog

A survey of likely Republican voters who were interviewed April 26-28, 2010 finds Chris Dudley leading at 30%, Allen Alley second at 13%, Bill Sizemore next at 8%, and then John Lim at 6%. The other candidates combined have 2%. 41% are undecided.

An earlier survey, with interviews March 1-3,2010, that included only the top four candidates in this survey found Chris Dudley leading at 21%, Allen Alley second at 9%, Bill Sizemore next at 8%, and then John Lim at 3%. 59% were undecided.

Combining these results, Chris Dudley’s support has increased 9% during the past two months or so, Allen Alley’s has increased 4%, , and then John Lim’s at 3%. Bill Sizemore’s support is unchanged.

The results from the March 1-3, 2010 survey are posted at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=2837

QUESTION
If the Republican Primary election for Governor were held today, would you vote for: Bill Sizemore, John Lim, Darren Karr, Clark Colvin, William Ames Curtright, Chris Dudley, Bob Forthan, Allen Alley, or Rex O Watkins?

METHODOLOGY
The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed April 26-28, 2010.The margin of error at the sample median was 5 percent. Likelihood based on a turnout model that includes vote history, gender, age, and region. The candidates are listed in ballot order.

An earlier survey on the Republican Gubernatorial Primary was conducted March 1-3, 2010 with identical methodology. This survey only included Alley, Dudley, Lim, and Sizemore. The names were rotated in this survey because the random alphabet ballot order was not known.

Lindholm Company is not currently working with any of the candidates in the contest.

The ratio of voters in the two parties is the basis for a number of partisanship measures in academic political science. This post looks at those.

This graphic shows the number of registered Democratic voters as a percentage of the number of registered Republican voters for each of Oregon’s 15 largest cities.

In each of Corvallis, Eugene, and Portland, registered Democrats have more than a two-to-one edge.

Only in Grants Pass, Keizer, and Medford, do Republicans outnumber Democrats.

Source of voter registration data: Labels and Lists.

Ethnic Japanese in California are not a recently arriving immigrant population.
The Japanese provide a very different pattern.The distribution of the voters is extremly level. Older voters are numerous and participate much more than younger voters.

The spike among the youngest voters is the “Obama” spike. Younger voters registering  just to participate in the 2008 General Election.

The vote propensity is the number of elections voted in, zero through four, out of the past four primaries and generals (June and November of 2006 and June and November of 2008).

The graph has five lines, one each representing the percentage of total registered voters by each year of age for each of the five vote propensity levels.

Voter ethnicity was identified based on surname and personal name. This is considered the best available method, though it is likely to miss some members of the ethnic group and include some who are not members.

Source of raw data: Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

Mannix had been the Republican Gubernatorial nominee in 2002. Previously, Mannix had run unsuccessfully statewide as a Republican nominee and in Democratic primaries. The attacks against Mannix had a significant impact. Mannix did well statewide and especially in Marion County.

Geography is at least as important as ideology in deciding the Republican nominee. Geography is much more important for Republicans than for Democrats.

Oregon 2006 Republican Primary Statewide Results
Saxton  41.69%
Mannix  29.80%
Atkinson 22.31%
Other   6.21%

Map range consists of shades of green with more intense green indicating more intense support.

For a general discussion of this contest, the statewide percentages for each of the three major candidates. and a map of which counties were won by which candidate please see this post: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1787

Source of election returns: Oregon Secretary of State

In many ways, the electorate’s partisan registration can have a profound impact on who wins elections. This is just as true with the nonpartisan municipal elections. This post looks at some of those characteristics.

This graphic shows the difference between the percentage of registered Democratic voters and the percentage of registered Republican voters for each of Oregon’s 15 largest cities.

In each of Corvallis, Eugene, and Portland, registered Democrats have edges greater than 25 percentage points.

Only in Grants Pass, Keizer, and Medford, do Republicans outnumber Democrats.

Earlier posts have indicated the strong correlation between partisan difference and success in Oregon State House elections during the past decade.

Source of voter registration data: Labels and Lists.

Those with incomes of $50,000 or more and non-whites with lower incomes most approve.  Non-major-party white voters with incomes under $50,000 least approve.

Question:
Do you approve or disapprove of moving the A’s baseball team to San Jose? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY
The surveys each consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of Santa Clara County likely June 2010 Primary voters conducted June 16-18, 2009, October 26-28, 2009, and February 15-17, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median is 5 percent. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.

CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) was used to construct the graphic using demographic data about the survey respondents.

Saxton won the Primary. Saxton had run unsuccessfully in the 2002 Republican Gubernatorial Primary. Saxton had been on the Portland School Board. Saxton was a native of Albany.

Saxton did best near Portland, in Benton and Linn counties, and in many of the more rural areas.

Geography is at least as important as ideology in deciding the Republican nominee. Geography is much more important for Republicans than for Democrats

Oregon 2006 Republican Primary Statewide Results
Saxton  41.69%
Mannix  29.80%
Atkinson 22.31%
Other   6.21%

Map range consists of shades of green with more intense green indicating more intense support.

For a general discussion of this contest, the statewide percentages for each of the three major candidates. and a map of which counties were won by which candidate please see this post: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1787

Source of election returns: Oregon Secretary of State

Four of the five potential Republican Presidential candidates tested had both extremely high name identification and net favorables. Tim Pawlenty, Governor of Minnesota, is virtually unknown. This explains his low ballot support at this stage.  At this point, it’s fair to say Oregon Republican voters are happy with their choices.

The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed March 1-3, 2010.The margin of error at the sample median was 5 percent. Likelihood based on a turnout model that includes vote history, gender, age, and region.

This Correspondence Analysis of likely Oregon Republican Primary voter reveals a number of interesting relationships.

1. The economy, terrorism, and health care are the central issues. This implies (see below) that the economy should be the main point of contention among candidates.

2. Romney, being at the center, is the clear frontrunner. He has an advantage over every other candidate with the three central issues: economy, terrorism, and health care.

3.  Gingrich has “cornered” the deficit issue.

4. Huckabee has “cornered” the social issues.

5. Palin is not as distinguished. She is close to the center, like Romney, but also close to those voters who are undecided about a Presidential nominee.

4.

The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed March 1-3, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median was 5 percent. Likelihood based on a turnout model that includes vote history, gender, age, and region.

Correspondence Analysis is a method to graphically represent a crosstabulation.

The split on approve of the 49er’s move looks a bit like 49er’s fans and non-fans. Upper income homeowners approve most. Approval from all other demographics is significantly lower.

Question:
Do you approve or disapprove of moving the 49er’s football team to Santa Clara? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY
The surveys each consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of Santa Clara County likely June 2010 Primary voters conducted June 16-18, 2009, October 26-28, 2009, and February 15-17, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median is 5 percent. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.

CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) was used to construct the graphic using demographic data about the survey respondents.