Lindholm Company Blog

This graphic ranks the twelve largest California cities by the identified Japanese voters as a percentage of all registered voters.

Sacramento followed by San Jose have the largest concentrations of Japanese voters among major California cities. San Jose’s Japanese voter population is part of a larger Asian-American voting block that places San Jose among the top cities in all of the larger Asian-American voter groups.

Size is determined by population in the July 2008 Census Bureau estimates.

Ethnic identification based on name and neighborhood characteristics. Note that, while the data allow comparisons, the estimated percentages will tend to underestimate the actual percentage.

Source of data: U. S. Census Bureau; Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

This graphic compares Republican performance in Washington statewide contests from 2003-2008 with Oregon performance from 1982-2008.

Incumbents of both parties dominated.  However, despite the Democratic dominance of Washington in Presidential contests in recent years, the Republicans still won a third of open seat contests.

The 2003-08 period in Washington directly parallels the period in Oregon since the last statewide victory and the presumed Democratic dominance.

Sources of data: Oregon Secretary of State; Washington Secretary of State.

This graphic ranks the twelve largest California cities by the identified Chinese voters as a percentage of all registered voters.

The top three cities are all in the Bay Area: Oakland, San Francisco, and San Jose. San Jose’s Chinese voter population is part of a larger Asian-American voting block that places San Jose among the top cities in all of the larger Asian-American voter groups.

Size is determined by population in the July 2008 Census Bureau estimates.

Ethnic identification based on name and neighborhood characteristics. Note that, while the data allow comparisons, the estimated percentages will tend to underestimate the actual percentage.

Source of data: U. S. Census Bureau; Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

This graphic compares Republican performance in California statewide contests from 2003-2008 with Oregon performance from 1982-2008.

Incumbents of both parties did the best. However, despite the Democratic dominance of California in recent years, the Republicans still won a third of open seat contests.

The 2003-08 period in California directly parallels the period in Oregon since the last statewide victory and the presumed Democratic dominance.

Sources of data: Oregon Secretary of State; California Secretary of State.

This graphic ranks the twelve largest California cities by the identified Latino voters as a percentage of all registered voters.

All of the top dozen cities have significant Latino populations. Santa Ana, however, has a clear majority and is far in the lead. The two northern Bay Area cities, Oakland and San Francisco, lag.

Size is determined by population in the July 2008 Census Bureau estimates.

Ethnic identification based on name and neighborhood characteristics. Note that, while the data allow comparisons, the estimated percentages will tend to underestimate the actual percentage.

Source of data: U. S. Census Bureau; Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

This graphic compares Republican performance in statewide contests from 1972-80 with 1982-2008.

Incumbents of both parties dominated from 1972 through 1980 and from 1982 through 2008. The key difference is that Republicans were able to win half the open seats between 1972 and 1980, but less than 10% from 1982 on.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

In general terms, the demographics of relative ballot return rates were like most elections. More frequent, higher propensity, voters tended to return their ballots earlier.

Unlike for age, the ballot return rates by vote propensity for other voters is generally similar to the two major parties. For comparison see Democrat return rates at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=3327 and Republican return rates at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=3330.

This implies that, in a social science statistical sense, vote propensity to some extent “controls” for age as a predictor in voter behavior. More research results on this point will be coming later.

The vote propensity is the turnout for the last four primaries and generals (2006 Primary and General and 2008 Primary and General).

The figure shows the percentage of all ballots returned by date. Weekend numbers are irregular because counties have different policies for accepting ballots received on Saturday.

Data sources: Oregon Secretary of State and Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

In general terms, the demographics of relative ballot return rates were like most elections. More frequent, higher propensity, voters tended to return their ballots earlier.

The Republican turnout advantage over Democrats is visible in every vote propensity. That advantage is highest among 2/4 and 3/4 voters. See: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=3327

The vote propensity is the turnout for the last four primaries and generals (2006 Primary and General and 2008 Primary and General).

The figure shows the percentage of all ballots returned by date. Weekend numbers are irregular because counties have different policies for accepting ballots received on Saturday.

Data sources: Oregon Secretary of State and Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

In general terms, the demographics of relative ballot return rates were like most elections. More frequent, higher propensity, voters tended to return their ballots earlier.

The vote propensity is the turnout for the last four primaries and generals (2006 Primary and General and 2008 Primary and General).

The figure shows the percentage of all ballots returned by date. Weekend numbers are irregular because counties have different policies for accepting ballots received on Saturday.

Data sources: Oregon Secretary of State and Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

In general terms, the demographics of relative ballot return rates were like most elections. Older voters tended to return their ballots earlier.

Democratic and Republican turnouts were significantly higher than Other Parties and Non-affiliated voters for every age category.
See Democrats at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=3315
See Republicans at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=3318

Notice the relatively sharper uptick at the end for voters 59 and younger.

The figure shows the percentage of all ballots returned by date. Weekend numbers are irregular because counties have different policies for accepting ballots received on Saturday.

Data sources: Oregon Secretary of State and Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.