Archive for June 2010

Oregon May 2010 Primary: Ballot Return Date for Republicans by Age

image0041

In general terms, the demographics of relative ballot return rates were like most elections. Older voters tended to return their ballots earlier.

Notice the relatively sharper uptick at the end for voters 59 and younger.

See the Democrats ballot return by age: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=3315

The figure shows the percentage of all ballots returned by date. Weekend numbers are irregular because counties have different policies for accepting ballots received on Saturday.

Data sources: Oregon Secretary of State and Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

Oregon May 2010 Primary: Ballot Return Date for Democrats by Age

image0021

In general terms, the demographics of relative ballot return rates were like most elections. Older voters tended to return their ballots earlier.

Notice the relatively sharper uptick at the end for voters 59 and younger.

The figure shows the percentage of all ballots returned by date. Weekend numbers are irregular because counties have different policies for accepting ballots received on Saturday.

Data sources: Oregon Secretary of State and Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

Latino and Vietnamese Voter Pct. by San Jose City Council District Compared

csj-l-v-out0

This chart compares the Latino and Vietnamese voter percentages by San Jose City Council District.

First, there is significant concentration. District 5, for Latinos, and District 7, for Vietnamese, both possess considerably higher percentages in their respective ethnicities than the other districts. Second, on the other hand, there is a generally positive correlation. Districts 5 and 7 have relatively high percentages of both Latinos and Vietnamese. Districts 1, 6, 9, and 10 are low in both.

For a map of the districts: http://www.sanjoseca.gov/planning/data/council_dist

For reference, the city council members by district:
District 1: Constant
District 2: Kalra
District 3: Liccardo
District 4: Chu
District 5: Campos
District 6: Oliverio
District 7: Nguyen
District 8: Herrera
District 9: Chirco
District 10: Pyle

Source of data: Labels of Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

Oregon Republican Statewide Success and Partisan Turnout 1964-2008

image00213

Note the earlier comparison with House District success: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=36

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

Oregon May 2010 Primary: Statewide Turnout Rates by Party and Vote Propensity

image004

The Republican turnout advantage over Democrats in every vote propensity. That advantage is highest among 2/4 and 3/4 voters.

An interesting characteristic is that Democrats and Other Parties and Non-affiliated voters had roughly the same turnout rates, with Democrats holding a consistent 1 to 4 percent advantage, for all vote propensities except 4/4 where Democrats held a 9 percent advantage.

These patterns probably reflect the anomalously high Democratic turnout in the 2008 Primary.

There are a number of earlier posts on this blog examining the 2008 Oregon Democratic Primary. For example, see: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1047

For turnout by age see: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=3302

The vote propensity is the turnout for the last four primaries and generals (2006 Primary and General and 2008 Primary and General).

Data sources: Oregon Secretary of State and Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

Oregon May 2010 Primary: Statewide Turnout Rates by Party and Age

image002

The Republican turnout advantage over Democrats in every age category. That advantage is a fairly consistent 2 to 4 percent for each.

Democratic and Republican turnouts were significantly higher than Other Parties and Non-affiliated voters for every age category.

Data sources: Oregon Secretary of State and Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

BART to San Jose Approval: Key Demographics

sccp-a-b-chaid-5-100

BART to San Jose maintains a high overall approval rating. There is considerable variation depending on the demographics. The key variables that segment approval of the BART to San Jose project are based on party, gender, and age.

Non-Senior Democrats, those aged under 65, approve the most at 85 percent. Female Independents, Decline to State and minor parties, approve at the next highest rate, 78 percent. Senior Democrats, 65 and older, are the third most approving at 73 percent.

The least approving are young, under 45, male Republicans at only 44 percent. This is the only segment with an approval rating below 50 percent.

The other segments are all in the middle, approving at 67 percent or 68 percent.

QUESTION
Do you approve or disapprove of building BART to San Jose? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

SAMPLING
The surveys each consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of Santa Clara County likely June 2010 Primary voters conducted June 16-18, 2009, October 26-28, 2009, February 15-16, 2010, and May 10-12, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median was 5 percent for each of the surveys. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.

CHAID
The Tree diagram was constructed using CHAID (Chi-Squared Automatic Interaction Detection). It is a method used to explore crosstabulated data.

Oregon Statewide Partisan Contests 1982-2008

This graphic summarizes the winning percentages of Republican candidates when running in the three different categories of statewide contests: Republican Incumbent, Democratic Incumbent, and Open Seat.

Both Republican and Democratic statewide incumbents win in excess of 90% of the time. This is expected. However, the Democrats also win open seats in excess of 90% of the time. This failure to win open seat contests is the basis for the Republican statewide failure the past quarter century.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

Preface to the Quarter Century Study Series

Starting later today I will begin a series of posts, entitled “Quarter Century,” examining the results of statewide contests in Oregon since 1982.

Many observers date the decline of Republican statewide fortunes to 1992 when the Democrats swept all three constitutional offices (Secretary of State, State Treasurer, and Attorney General).  This seems to be the prevailing viewpoint.

However, the Republican failures of the 1990s and 2000s had roots going back into the 1980s. This series of research points will examine the factors that held true in the late 1980s and still hold true for Oregon Republicans today.

Hope you enjoy.