Lindholm Company Blog

Just to keep the record straight, Pat Farr, should he win his unopposed race for city council in November, would top the list with 57% Name ID. Please see this post: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=3405; for the complete list.

There is a wide dispersion of Name ID ratings among current Eugene City Councilors: from 53% to 16%. In general, the Name ID rating is correlated with the length of service.

Betty Taylor and Andrea Ortiz are known by about half of respondents. None of the other councilors are known by more than a third of respondents.

Usually Name ID is a measure of a politician’s influence and generally grows over the course of a person’s service.

The “placebo” name is a person who actually exists, but is unlikely to be known in Eugene outside a small circle. The name is included to measure the Name ID floor and to measure the upward bias of those with low Name ID.

City Councilor Name IDs in Eugene are relatively high compared to other cities. This is probably due to having local network TV stations, local radio news, and overall high newspaper readership.

Generally, ratings during the 2000s are lower than those during the 1990s. Councilors with three or four years’ service in the 1990s almost always reached the 40 percent level.

QUESTION
I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each.
LIST OF PERSONS

The placebo name is a real person who is not a public figure in Eugene.

METHODOLOGY
The survey consists of 200 live telephone interviews of likely Eugene 2010 General Election voters conducted June 14-15, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent.

This research was conducted has part of an ongoing long-term research project and no client paid for any part of this work.

As a disclaimer, Pat Farr, who will appear on the November ballot unopposed for City Council Ward 6, works for Lindholm Company.

This graphic ranks the twelve largest California cities by the identified Filipino voters as a percentage of all registered voters.

San Jose and the three port cities of San Diego, San Francisco, and Long Beach have the highest voter populations of Filipinos. San Jose’s Filipino voter population is part of a larger Asian-American voting block that places San Jose among the top cities in all of the larger Asian-American voter groups.

Size is determined by population in the July 2008 Census Bureau estimates.

Ethnic identification based on name and neighborhood characteristics. Note that, while the data allow comparisons, the estimated percentages will tend to underestimate the actual percentage.

Source of data: U. S. Census Bureau; Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

This graph shows the Republican funding as a percentage of the Democrat’s funding for all open seat contests from 1982 through 2008 and from the 1994 victory of Jack Roberts for Labor Commissioner.

Of the Republicans who spent more than their Democratic opponents, the three conservatives lost, two of the moderates faced significant third-party conservative opponents and lost, and the one moderate who faced the Democrat on even terms, won. No conservative Republican nominee has won election.

A recent study published in the Oregon Historical Quarterly (see below for citation) concluded that the last time a conservative won statewide office in Oregon was 1948! Regardless of the details, it has been a very long time.

Methodology: In order to maximize comparability across contests, a single standard was chosen. The standard used in the Almanac of American Politics in that it measures expenditures rather than contributions, combines primary and general funding and omits in-kind expenditures. In addition, because expenditures vary widely across contests, the relative expenditures were standardized by taken the Republican expenditures as a percentage of the Democratic expenditure.

Sources: Oregon Secretary of State and Almanac of American Politics. Jeff LaLande, Oregon’s Last Conservative U.S. Senator: Some Light upon the Little-Known Career of Guy Cordon, Volume 110, No. 2 (Summer 2009).

Dedicating Lane County funds for public safety use is strongly supported by Eugeneans: 64% to 23%.

The key demographic split is by gender: women support by 74% to 19%, but men only support 52% to 28%.

It is important to keep in mind that only Eugeneans were included in the survey. Based on the results of other surveys, non-Eugene voters would be expected to support this measure by an even greater margin.

QUESTION
Do you support or oppose dedicating a fixed percentage of the Lane County budget for public safety? IF SUPPORT OR OPPOSE: Is that strongly or somewhat?

METHODOLOGY
The survey consists of 200 live telephone interviews of likely Eugene 2010 General Election voters conducted June 14-15, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent.

This research was conducted has part of an ongoing long-term research project and no client paid for any part of this work.

At this point, voters support refurbishing Civic Stadium by 53% to 30%.

The key demographic split is along party lines. Democrats and Independents are much more supportive (58% to 25%) than Republicans (40% to 42%).

Note that the 23-point advantage is a bit deceptive and any interpretation should be cautious in the context of a ballot measure. No dollar figures were included in the survey (suggestions were all over the board so no single number made sense to include). Almost any dollar figure would cause support to drop.

QUESTION
Do you support or oppose refurbishing Civic Stadium? IF SUPPORT OR OPPOSE: Is that strongly or somewhat?

METHODOLOGY
The survey consists of 200 live telephone interviews of likely Eugene 2010 General Election voters conducted June 14-15, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent.

This research was conducted has part of an ongoing long-term research project and no client paid for any part of this work.

The question is whether the uproar of earlier this year has subsided … it hasn’t.

Renaming Beltline is strongly opposed by Eugeneans with 14% supporting and 77% opposing. There is little to distinguish any demographic group. The opposition is high and uniform.

QUESTION
Do you support or oppose renaming Beltline Road for Randy Papé? IF SUPPORT OR OPPOSE: Is that strongly or somewhat?

METHODOLOGY
The survey consists of 200 live telephone interviews of likely Eugene 2010 General Election voters conducted June 14-15, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent.

This research was conducted has part of an ongoing long-term research project and no client paid for any part of this work.

Support and opposition is nearly evenly split regarding expanding the urban growth boundary with 42% supporting to 41% opposing.

This kind of even division should be no surprise. Mayor Kitty Piercy has never received more than 52% when she had a challenger on the ballot.

The key demographic split is along party lines. Republicans are much more supportive  (66% to 20%) than Democrats and Independents (34% to 48%).

Note that since this is not going to be a money measure, undecided voters are likely to break based on the relative shares of the decided vote.

QUESTION
Do you support or oppose expanding the urban growth boundary? IF SUPPORT OR OPPOSE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
expanding the urban growth boundary?

METHODOLOGY
The survey consists of 200 live telephone interviews of likely Eugene 2010 General Election voters conducted June 14-15, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent.

This research was conducted has part of an ongoing long-term research project and no client paid for any part of this work.

At this point, voters support urban renewal funding by 55% to 31%.

The key demographic split is along party lines. Democrats are much more supportive  (62% to 24%) than Republicans and Independents (47% to 39%).

However, the 24-point advantage is a bit deceptive and any interpretation should be cautious in the context of a ballot measure.

The first caution is that these numbers should be seen as a maximum, not an expected vote. “Don’t knows” will tend to, but not always, oppose any measure once it gets fleshed out.

The second caution is  these numbers are about the same as in the summer before the November 2007 urban renewal measure was fleshed out. Once the measure was defined, the numbers dropped and, once the campaign started, the numbers kept dropping. Please see: http://www.lindholmresearch.com/files/110807EugTrack.pdf  and http://www.lindholmresearch.com/files/Eugene%20Measures%20Nov%202007%20Results.pdf for more details about the November 2007 measure.

QUESTION
Do you support or oppose using urban renewal funding for downtown Eugene? IF SUPPORT OR OPPOSE: Is that strongly or somewhat?

METHODOLOGY
The survey consists of 200 live telephone interviews of likely Eugene 2010 General Election voters conducted June 14-15, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent.

This research was conducted has part of an ongoing long-term research project and no client paid for any part of this work.

This graphic ranks the twelve largest California cities by the identified Indian/Hindu voters as a percentage of all registered voters.

San Jose has a considerable lead over all the other major California cities in its Indian/Hindu voting population. San Jose’s Indian/Hindu voter population is part of a larger Asian-American voting block that places San Jose among the top cities in all of the larger Asian-American voter groups.

Size is determined by population in the July 2008 Census Bureau estimates.

Ethnic identification based on name and neighborhood characteristics. Note that, while the data allow comparisons, the estimated percentages will tend to underestimate the actual percentage.

Source of data: U. S. Census Bureau; Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.