Lindholm Company Blog

Street repairs continue to be something Eugeneans are willing to pay for.

The potential bond that the city council is looking at receives strong support. These numbers echo the strong support polled in December for a $40 million bond: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=6992.

QUESTION
Now, I would like to ask you about some issues facing Eugene. Do you support or oppose a $43 million street repair bond?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 Eugene General Election voters were conducted a May 23 and 24, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7 percent.

This post presents some analysis of the polling results presented earlier. The unadjusted results are at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=7734.

Polls, especially of local races, invariably include many undecided voters. Pollsters can  improve estimates of the actual ballot standing.Pollsters can assign the undecided vote based on rules of thumb. This graphic uses a standard method to assign the undecided to each of the three candidates for Eugene Mayor.

It seems that Prociw made significant gains after the ballots were mailed. He became Piercy’s most important challenger. Not only did he collect the lion’s share of undecided voters, see the earlier post, but the predicted vote shifted towards him as well. Piercy opponents, over time, learned that he was their choice.

QUESTION
If the election for Mayor of Eugene were held today, would you vote for Kitty Piercy, Kevin Prociw, or Jon Walrod (ROTATE NAMES)? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Eugene Primary voters were conducted February 22 through 24, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

The election results are the final unofficial numbers from Lane County Elections.

The adjustment assumed that not more than one-third of the undecided voters would vote for the incumbent and that the remaining votes would be divided among the challengers in proportion to their support. In this case, Mayor Piercy was allocated one-third of the undecided, Prociw four-ninths (2/3*8/12) and Walrod two ninths (2/3*4/12).

This post presents some analysis of the polling results for the Springfield mayoral race presented earlier.  This graphic shows tracking poll predictions and the final vote. The original results are at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=7741.

Using this simulation technique, there was virtually no change in support levels during the two months of the campaign before the election. This implies that Springfield voters are pretty settled on their preferences for mayor and probably on the direction of the city.

QUESTION
If the election for Mayor of Springfield were held today, would you vote for Christine Lundberg or Denise Bean (ROTATE NAMES)? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Springfield Primary voters were conducted March 13 and 14, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

The election results are the final unofficial numbers from Lane County Elections.

The adjustment assumed that one-third of the undecided voters would vote for the incumbent and that the remaining two-thirds would go to the challenger. In this case, one-third of the undecided were assigned to Lundberg and two-thirds to Bean.

This graphic shows the tracking poll results and the final vote. The tracking poll was conducted just before ballots arrived in Eugene homes.

The three Eugene Mayoral candidates were in the same order in the polling as they wound up in the final vote. Piercy moved very little during the final three weeks of the campaign. Prociw gained the most between the April poll and the May primary election.

This can be placed into additional context. Running six opponents instead of two, Jim Torrey received 69 percent of the vote when running for re-election in 2000. Torrey spent $17,484. Piercy had spent nearly $70,000 as of Election Day.

QUESTION
If the election for Mayor of Eugene were held today, would you vote for Kitty Piercy, Kevin Prociw, or Jon Walrod (ROTATE NAMES)? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Eugene Primary voters were conducted February 22 through 24, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

The election results are the final unofficial numbers from Lane County Elections.

The Torrey fundraising data come from the Eugene City Recorder and the Piercy fundraising data come from ORESTAR.

This graphic shows the tracking poll results and the final vote. Christine Lundberg kept her wide lead over the course of the campaign.

QUESTION
If the election for Mayor of Springfield were held today, would you vote for Christine Lundberg or Denise Bean (ROTATE NAMES)? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Springfield Primary voters were conducted March 13 and 14, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

The election results are the final unofficial numbers from Lane County Elections.

Above are the final unofficial election result for the major local contests.

Several things pop out:

First, none of the contests were really close. All of the winners were in the neighborhood of 60 percent. A standard definition of a landslide is a double-digit victory margin. Only Sorenson v. Stahl was within 20 points.

Second, the results include a couple of coincidences. Both incumbent mayors won with the same percentage. And the two county commission winners were within a point of one another. Almost like the Jim and Peter races in 1996.

Better than 90 percent of respondents see funding the Jail as important.

QUESTION
As you may be aware, Lane County is at risk of losing services. How important to you is Lane County Jail, very important, somewhat important, somewhat unimportant, or very unimportant?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of a random sample of Lane County likely 2012 General Election voters were conducted February 29 through March 2, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent. The percentages might not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.

Lane County Sheriff’s Patrols are seen as very important to keep by voters.

QUESTION
As you may be aware, Lane County is at risk of losing services. How important to you is Lane County Rural Sheriff’s Patrols, very important, somewhat important, somewhat unimportant, or very unimportant?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of a random sample of Lane County likely 2012 General Election voters were conducted February 29 through March 2, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent. The percentages might not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.

The importance of funding the District Attorney’s office is very important.

QUESTION
As you may be aware, Lane County is at risk of losing services. How important to you is Lane County District Attorney Office, very important, somewhat important, somewhat unimportant, or very unimportant?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of a random sample of Lane County likely 2012 General Election voters were conducted February 29 through March 2, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent. The percentages might not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.

Parole and Probation has better than 80 percent of respondents rating it important.

QUESTION
As you may be aware, Lane County is at risk of losing services. How important to you is Lane County Parole and Probation, very important, somewhat important, somewhat unimportant, or very unimportant?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of a random sample of Lane County likely 2012 General Election voters were conducted February 29 through March 2, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent. The percentages might not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.