Lindholm Company Blog

Support for the West 11th EmX extension has increased significantly, to 46 percent, since May. The opposition stayed about constant at 45 percent. Support and opposition are now in a statistical tie.

This change appears to follow the trend that emerged in May. First, the opposition dropped and these people moved into the uncertain category. Then, people moved from undecided to support.

QUESTION:
Do you support or oppose the Lane Transit District extending the Bus Rapid Transit EmX along West 11th Avenue?

METHODOLOGY:
All surveys consist of 200 telephone interviews of likely Eugene General Election voters. The margin of error at the overall sample median is plus or minus 7 percent.

The surveys were conducted November 29-30, 2010, January 24-25, 2011, May 25-26, 2011, September 26-27, 2011, December 5-6, 2011, and May 23-24,2012, and September 9-10, 2012.

Support for the Eugene Street Bond Measure dropped significantly between the May and November surveys.

The support in May stood at 59 percent. The support in September stood at 49 percent. Under normal circumstances, most “undecided/don’t know” voters will vote no. Using that assumption, the street bond has a 50/50 chance to win. A significant drop since polling in 2008 and from earlier this year.

The May poll implied that the bond was in good shape and had lost little support since it was on the 2008 ballot. The new polling implies that supporters need to do some work to guarantee passage of the bond.

There are two plausible reasons for this drop. First, it’s possible that actual support for street repairs has dropped over time. However, nearly all the other questions in the September survey show an increase, not a decrease, in optimism around Eugene since May. Second, it’s possible the different wording of the question and, implicitly, the different components of the bond measure, are much less favored. This latter possibility seems to make more sense.

The undecided percentage continues to be well above ten percent and verging on twenty percent. This is very high for a repeat local money measure in Eugene at this stage.

Data came from questions with two different question wordings. The exact wording of the measure was not known when the May survey questionnaire was prepared.

QUESTION: MAY 2012
Now, I would like to ask you about some issues facing Eugene. Do you support or oppose a $43 million street repair bond?

QUESTION: SEPTEMBER 2012
Now, I would like to ask you about some measures that will be on Eugene’s November ballot. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on  Measure 20-197 : Shall Eugene fix streets and fund bicycle and pedestrian projects using $43 million in general obligation bonds?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 Eugene General Election voters were conducted May 23 and 24, 2012 and September 9 and 10, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7 percent.

Strong support for the proposed plastic bag ban has has not dropped since it was first polled last year.

QUESTION
Do you support or oppose the proposed City of Eugene Plastic Bag Ban?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 Eugene General Election voters were conducted a September 9 and 10, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7 percent.

Portland just decided to fluoridate their water. We were curious were Eugeneans stood on the issue. At this point, fluoridation starts with strong support. However, this issue is definitely volatile. The last time Eugene approved fluoridation it quickly voted to halt fluoridation.

QUESTION
Do you support or oppose EWEB fluoridating Eugene’s water?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 Eugene General Election voters were conducted a September 9 and 10, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7 percent.

DISCLAIMER: No one in our office as of the date of this post knows of anyone in Eugene proposing or who will propose fluoridating the water. This question was asked solely because the issue has come up in Portland.

The advisory measure trails by a significant margin. However, this is probably not decisive. The undecided percentage is huge. This indicates that respondents have little information about the measure. At this point the result is up for grabs.

One reason for pessimism among the supporters: it is very unusual for an advisory measure of this type to start out behind, let alone behind by a nearly two-to-one ratio.

QUESTION
Now, I would like to ask you about some measures that will be on Eugene’s November ballot. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 20-198: Advisory Question on Corporate/Union Constitutional Rights and Campaign Spending?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 Eugene General Election voters were conducted a September 9 and 10, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7 percent.

This shows the responses to the 12 budget priorities questions together in one graphic.

The diagonal line is the “regression fit.” Essentially, this shows the disapproval in service is highly correlated with how underfunded the respondents think the service is.

QUESTIONS
1. How would you rate the job Lane County is doing to _________ ¬¬: excellent, good, fair, poor?                                                RANDOMIZE ORDER OF A THROUGH F

2. Does Lane County spend too much, enough, or too little to _____________?
RANDOMIZE ORDER OF A THROUGH F

ITEMS:
a.Keep inmates in jail.
b.Patrol rural areas
c.Prosecute accused criminals
d.Provide human services.
e.Provide public health
f.Provide staff for county commissioners.

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of random samples of Lane County likely 2012 General Election voters were conducted on February 29 through March 2, 2012 and again on July 9 through 10, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7 percent.

We’re starting to develop a trend on the county commissioners. The same pattern is holding. The Metro commissioners continue to have higher Name identification levels that that rural commissioners.

QUESTION
Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each? … Jay Bozievich … Rob Handy … Sid Leiken … Peter Sorenson… Faye Stewart [ORDER RANDOM]

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of random samples of Lane County likely 2012 General Election voters were conducted July 9 through 10, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median for the survey is 7 percent.

There has been a slight, but not statistically significant, improvement in the Board of Commissioner’s job performance rating between February, before the Primary election, and July, after the Primary election.

QUESTION
How would you rate the job the Lane County Board of Commissioners is doing?: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of random samples of Lane County likely 2012 General Election voters were conducted on February 29 through March 2, 2012 and again on July 9 through 10, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7 percent.

The job performance rating for the county government has improved by a statistically significant amount between the February survey, taken before the May Primary election, and the July survey, taken after the May Primary election.

QUESTION
How would you rate the job Lane County Government is doing?: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of random samples of Lane County likely 2012 General Election voters were conducted on February 29 through March 2, 2012 and again on July 9 through 10, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7 percent.