Lindholm Company Blog

As in the State Treasurer contest, there was a clear convergence in late September. This was followed by Rosenblum pulling away from Buchal. This is another example of a low-information contest since most of Rosenblum’s expenditures were in the May Primary.

It should be noted that Buchal was a write-in nominee in the Republican Primary and spent little money.

METHODOLOGY
The data come from five surveys composed of 200 live telephone interviews each conducted  September 17-18, October 1-2, October 15-16, October 22-23, and October 29-30, 2012. The margin of error on each survey is plus or minus 7 percent. Quotas were established to guarantee a representative sample of likelyOregon General Election voters.

The trend for the State Treasurer race differs from the Presidential and Secretary of State. Here there was a convergence in late September. After that, Wheeler pulled away. Here is an example of a low information contest. Wheeler, to date, had the lowest election expenditures of any of the three Democrats running statewide.

It should be noted that Cox was a write-in nominee in the Republican Primary and spent little money.

METHODOLOGY
The data come from five surveys composed of 200 live telephone interviews each conducted  September 17-18, October 1-2, October 15-16, October 22-23, and October 29-30, 2012. The margin of error on each survey is plus or minus 7 percent. Quotas were established to guarantee a representative sample of likelyOregon General Election voters.

The Secretary of State trend tracks with the Presidential trend. The two candidates converged during the first half of October. After that, the undecideds sorted themselves and Brown won by a solid margin.

METHODOLOGY
The data come from five surveys composed of 200 live telephone interviews each conducted  September 17-18, October 1-2, October 15-16, October 22-23, and October 29-30, 2012. The margin of error on each survey is plus or minus 7 percent. Quotas were established to guarantee a representative sample of likelyOregon General Election voters.

This trend analysis shows both the consistent Obama advantage throughout the campaign and the national Romney bump at the beginning of October due to the debate carried through to Oregon.

METHODOLOGY
The data come from five surveys composed of 200 live telephone interviews each conducted  September 17-18, October 1-2, October 15-16, October 22-23, and October 29-30, 2012. The margin of error on each survey is plus or minus 7 percent. Quotas were established to guarantee a representative sample of likelyOregon General Election voters.

In 2012, the only partisan statewide contests Oregonians had to vote on were the down ballot constitutional offices: Attorney General, Secretary of State, and State Treasurer.  This post will compare the 2012 fundraising levels with comparable contests in recent years.

The two 2008 races did better than Buehler did this year. This was despite the fact that the 2008 election was the best Democratic wave among the three years.

The expenditure totals are as of November 16, 2012.

These results fit the pattern. The two 2008 races were for open seats. Dancer placed ahead of Alley because he is from Eugene.

This corresponding vote percentages are at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=8548

In 2012, the only partisan statewide contests Oregonians had to vote on were the down ballot constitutional offices: Attorney General, Secretary of State, and State Treasurer.  This post will compare the 2012 results with comparable contests in recent years.

The red line is for the Republican percentage. The blue line is the Democratic percentage. This is the two-party vote. Third parties votes are not counted in order to make the results more easily comparable.

What’s most interesting is that the best result for Republicans was Rick Dancer running for Secretary of State in 2008. This was despite the fact that the 2008 election was the best Democratic wave among the three years.

This result fits with the traditional Eugene Republican advantage: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=8505

Another related point is that Dancer did relatively poorly in the Portland Metro Area: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=719. He more than made up for it in Lane County: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=299

There is an interesting piece of trivia amidst all the Republican futility in statewide races.

The only Republican nominees to win statewide races the first time out, no previous statewide races and not an incumbent, in the last 35 years were Dave Frohnmayer in 1980 and Jack Roberts in 1994. Both were from Eugene and Rubicon members.

The time a last Republican from the Tri-County area (Clackamas, Multnomah, and Washington counties) won a statewide partisan race the first time out was in 1968 (Bob Packwood and Lee Johnson)!

There is actually a pretty good strategic reason why the “Berkeley of Oregon” has been so comparatively successful since the 1960s minting statewide Republican nominees. However, that’s for another post.

This post updates the earlier “Quarter Century Study.” For example, please see: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=122.

Source: Oregon Secretary of State.

Full disclosure: Rick Lindholm ran the Jack Roberts campaign in 1994.

Since Ronald Reagan’s inauguration in 1981, Oregon Republican nominees have had the following record in contests for statewide partisan offices:

1. Republican incumbent: 10 wins out of 11 contests = 91%

2. Open seat (No incumbent): 1 win out of 16 contests = 6% (lost one out of one in 2012)

3. Democratic incumbent: 1 win out of 19 contests = 5% (lost two out of two in 2012)

There is one Republican who stands out for better or worse in each category. Jack Roberts is the only Republican to defeat a Democratic incumbent (1994). Gordon Smith is the only Republican to win an open seat(1996) and to lose as an incumbent (2008).

This post updates the earlier “Quarter Century Study.” For more information please see: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=122 and the follow up posts in subsequent weeks.

Source: Oregon Secretary of State.

Full disclosure: Rick Lindholm ran the Jack Roberts campaign in 1994.

Congratulations to our own Pat Farr on his election to the Lane County Board of Commissioners!

Pat has worked on projects for The Lindholm Company, LLC, since 2007.  We’re very happy for him.

This post presents a perceptual map comparing the Secretary of State vote and the Labor Commissioner vote.

There is now an advertisement attacking both of them jointly. This perceptual map implies that there is some difference between the two candidates.

These differences come both from that there is a much higher undecided vote in the Labor Commissioner race and because Starr is drawing a relatively less partisan typical voter than Buehler is.

Avakian’s point is on a nearly direct line from the “bulls-eye” origin as Brown is. However, his point is further out. This implies that Avakian is drawing on Brown voters only getting fewer of them.

QUESTIONS
1. If the election  for Secretary of State were held today, would you vote forBruce Alexander Knight, Libertarian Party, Kate Brown, Democrat and Working Families parties, Knute Buehler, Republican and Independent parties, Seth Woolley, Pacific Green Party, or Robert Wolfe, Progressive Party?

2. If the election  for Labor Commissioner were held today, would you vote for Bruce Starr or Brad Avakian?
IF STARR/AVAKIAN: Is that Strongly or Somewhat?

METHODOLOGY
This tracking survey series is comprised of five statewide Oregon surveys of 200 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon General Election voters conducted each of September 17-18, October 1-2, October 15-16, October 22-23, and October 29-30, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

The graphic is constructed based on a Correspondence Analysis.