Lindholm Company Blog

The support for the fee measure is sharply divided by party. It appears to have won narrowly among Democrats and non major party voters and lost by a huge landslide among Republicans.

This is based on the samples drawn during the election. Therefore, the percentages should be higher than for the final vote.

QUESTION:
City of Eugene Measure 20-211: Monthly fee for City fire, police, homelessness and other services. Shall City maintain fire, police, homelessness and quality of life services with monthly fee capped at $10 [TEN DOLLARS] for residences? IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY:
200 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely May 2013 City of Eugene Special Election voters on each of April 2-3, April 29-30, and May 13-14, 2013. The margin of error at the sample median was 7 percent.

The tree diagram was constructing using CHAID.

There was a clear and uniform drop in support. The “Yes” vote dropped by either six or seven points between each observation. The first survey confirms the earlier city polling. However, the support dropped by 20 points! The campaigns really did matter in the case of this election.

As usual, the “Don’t Knows” voted “No.”

The Election Day percentage is the Lane County Elections Final Unofficial report released on Friday, May 24.

QUESTION:
City of Eugene Measure 20-211: Monthly fee for City fire, police, homelessness and other services. Shall City maintain fire, police, homelessness and quality of life services with monthly fee capped at $10 [TEN DOLLARS] for residences? IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY:
200 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely May 2013 City of Eugene Special Election voters on each of April 2-3, April 29-30, and May 13-14, 2013. The margin of error at the sample median was 7 percent.

Support broke down by party. As one would expect. Democrats are most supportive of a tax increase. New voters and long-time voters were the very most supportive.

The 41 percent support among Eugene Republicans shows how broadly the measure was supported.

QUESTION:
Eugene School District 4J Measure 20-210: Authorizes General Obligation Bonds for Eugene School District 4J. Shall Eugene School District issue general obligation bonds not to exceed 170 million dollars for school construction, facility improvements, technology and capital assets? IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY:
Between 155 and 165 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely May 2013 City of Eugene Special Election voters who live in School District 4J on each of April 2-3, April 29-30, and May 13-14, 2013. The margin of error at the sample median was 8 percent.

The tree diagram was constructing using CHAID.

Vote propensity refers to number of previous primary and general elections the person voted in during 2010 and 2012. Usually, the “1” means a person only voted in the 2012 Presidential General.

The “Yes” vote among Eugeneans was nearly constant during the election. This is common. Our polling in recent years almost always has 4J’s measures winning by wide margins from start to finish.

The Election Day percentage is as of the Lane County Elections Final Unofficial report on Friday, May 24. The percentage is districtwide not just the City of Eugene. However, Eugene has such a large share of voters that in recent years there is not much of a difference.

As usual, “Don’t Knows” on money measures almost always vote “No” in the end.

QUESTION:
Eugene School District 4J Measure 20-210: Authorizes General Obligation Bonds for Eugene School District 4J. Shall Eugene School District issue general obligation bonds not to exceed 170 million dollars for school construction, facility improvements, technology and capital assets? IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY:
Between 155 and 165 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely May 2013 City of Eugene Special Election voters who live in School District 4J on each of April 2-3, April 29-30, and May 13-14, 2013. The margin of error at the sample median was 8 percent.

The posts this week will be devoted to analyzing the polling on the May Special Election results from the 4J Bond Measure and the Service Fee.