Lindholm Company Blog

There was a clear gap in performance between the three incumbent county commissioners in the recent primary. The net swing adjusts the winning percentage by the partisan registration in the district.

Since Leiken lacked a strong opponent his margin is expected. This is not the largest observed locally. Pat Farr had a 45 point net swing against Rob Handy in 2012.

It is worth pointing out that the 20-point swing in the Stewart context would have won in a countywide contest where he would have needed only a 16-point swing.

Bozievich’s  net swing dropped from 16 percent in November 2010 to 3 percent this past May. This is a huge drop. It appears to echo the poor Bozievich polling reported earlier in this blog.

These swings can be compared with those in other areas: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=9525.

SOURCE OF DATA: Lane County Elections

METHODOLOGY: The net swing equals the difference between the winner and the second place candidate percentages minus the difference between the Republican and Democratic partisan percentages. This is a standard way to compute differences since both Leiken and Stewart had a single dominant opponent. For example, Bozievich tied Lesley and Democrats had a three percentage registration edge over Republicans.

Leiken did well in all regions. West Springfield was worst. Generally, his percentage improved going east. Leiken received 62 percent of the vote district wide.

SOURCE OF DATA: Lane County Elections

REGIONS
West Springfield: Springfield Wards 1 and 2
Central Springfield: Springfield Wards 3 and 4
East Springfield: Springfield Wards 5 and 6
Valley: Any non-Springfield precincts in the district.

The Eugene region is the new part of the district and it shows. Stewart did not do nearly as well in that portion of the district. Had it not been added he would have cruised to victory. Stewart received 50 percent of the vote district wide.

SOURCE OF DATA: Lane County Elections

REGIONS
South Lane: Rural areas of the district surrounding Cottage Grove and west.
East Lane: Rural areas including Coburg, Blue River, and Oakridge areas.
Eugene: All City of Eugene precincts

Bozievich did won in the Central region of the district. Lesley won on the Coast and in Santa Clara. Bozievich received 50 percent of the vote district wide.

SOURCE OF DATA: Lane County Elections

REGIONS
Coast: Every precinct from Mapleton west.
Central: The central portion of the district.
Santa Clara: All City of Eugene and Santa Clara region precincts.

There is clearly no consensus that Eugene needs a new city hall.

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the City of Eugene building a new City Hall?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2014 General election voters conducted May 27-28, 2014. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent. Totals may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.

The West 11th EmX continues to hover around half approve and half disapprove.

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the Lane Transit District building EmX bus rapid transit on West 11th Avenue?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2014 General election voters conducted May 27-28, 2014. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent. Totals may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.

There is solid, though not overwhelming, approval of the city’s plans regarding Civic Stadium.

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the Eugene School District 4J selling Civic Stadium to the City of Eugene?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2014 General election voters conducted May 27-28, 2014. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent. Totals may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.

The proposed county subsidy of Glenwood is opposed, though not by an overwhelming amount.

QUESTION: Do you support or oppose Lane County providing a public subsidy in order to develop a conference center in the Glenwood area?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2014 General election voters conducted May 27-28, 2014. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent. Totals may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.

There is overwhelming support for the proposed land exchange.

QUESTION: Do you support or oppose the City of Eugene and Lane County exchanging land in order to allow for a year-round farmers’ market in downtown Eugene?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2014 General election voters conducted May 27-28, 2014. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent. Totals may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.

The library levy receives overwhelming support.

QUESTION: Do you support or oppose a City of Eugene library levy restoring the downtown and branch library services that have been cut in recent years?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2014 General election voters conducted May 27-28, 2014. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent. Totals may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.