Lindholm Company Blog

Older voters tend to both be more likely to return their ballots and to return their ballots earlier.

Note the falloff of voters 75+ at the end.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Older voters tend to return their ballots earlier.

Note the falloff of voters 75+ on election day. In polling place states, the turnout rate for voters 75+ is lower than those 65-74.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

The lines track each other almost perfectly. There are few gender differences in ballot return date.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

The turnout percentage by day is almost exactly the same.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Here’s how some potential candidates for Eugene’s 2004 Mayoral race stood in May 2003.

The sample doesn’t exactly match the one in the previous post. It is from May and a General election sample. That said, it’s clear that Miller and Piercy both had developed large citywide constituencies.

QUESTION: Now, looking at next year’s mayoral race. Some say Mayor Jim Torrey won’t run for re-election. Some people have already been mentioned as interested in running for mayor. If the election were held today, would you vote for David Kelly, Jeff Miller, Nancy Nathanson, or Kitty Piercy for Mayor ROTATE?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely general election voters were conducted the nights of May 7 and 8, 2003. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%.

Mayor Kitty Piercy has announced she is not running for re-election in 2016 and the Register-Guard profiled six potential Eugene mayoral candidates. This post reports polling that shows where they stand. All six were included in the question.

Okay, this looks reasonably normal. However, notice the small percentages. The next graphic adds in the “don’t know” percentage.

At around 70 percent, the “don’t know” percentage swamps everything else.

BOTTOM LINE: The 2016 Eugene Mayoral contest starts out completely wide open.

QUESTION: As you may know, Kitty Piercy has announced she will not run for re-election as Mayor of Eugene. Several candidates have expressed a public interest in running for mayor. If the 2016 Eugene mayoral election were held today, would you vote for: Chris Pryor, Mike Clark, Alan Zelenka, James Manning, Bob Cassidy, or Laura Illig [ROTATE NAMES]? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2016 Primary voters were conducted January 13-14, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent. Rounding may lead to totals different from 100 percent.

Eugeneans are about evenly split whether the city’s current economic growth rate is “just about right” or “too slow.”

QUESTION: Do you believe that recent economic growth in Eugene has been too fast, too slow, or just about right?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters conducted December 2-3, 2014. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent.Totals may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.

Eugene’s population growth rate is overwhelmingly considered “just about right.”

QUESTION: Do you believe that recent population growth in Eugene has been too fast, too slow, or just about right?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters conducted December 2-3, 2014. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent.Totals may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.

As the Eugene City Council gets back to work for a new year, it might be useful to see where they stand. It’s really not much of a surprise. Betty Taylor continues to have the top name familiarity among city councilors.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______ IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
RANDOMIZE ORDER
A. George Brown
B. Mike Clark
C. Greg Evans
D. George Poling
D. Chris Pryor
F. Claire Syrett
G. Betty Taylor
H. Alan Zelenka

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters conducted December 2-3, 2014. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent.

Mayor Piercy’s rating dropped significantly after the paid sick leave issue gained prominence and has not really recovered since then.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job Eugene Mayor Kitty Piercy is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY A random sample of 200 live telephone interviews of likely Eugene 2014 General election voters were conducted on each of Feb. 11-14, May 27-28, July 8-10, July 23-24, July 30-31, Sep. 15-16, and Dec. 2-3, 2014. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is plus or minus 7 percent.

As in all the posts: approval is the sum of the excellent and good percentages and disapproval is the sum of the fair and poor percentages. This follows standard methodology.