Lindholm Company Blog

This post looks at the predicted yes percentage. It was always close to the final margin. This means the campaigns, both privately run and county-run, provided little significant information to voters.

QUESTION: Lane County plans to place this measure on the May ballot:
To ensure road safety by modestly increasing vehicle registration fee.  Shall streets, roads, and bridges be kept safe and well maintained through a $35/year increase in the vehicle registration fee? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 200 likely Lane County May Special Election voters were conducted each of March 9-10, 2015, April 1-2, April 27-28, and May 10-11, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

ELECTION RESULTS: Lane County Elections, Final Unofficial.

The measure’s support hovered around the mid 30s since the Voter’s Pamphlet was sent. The opposition was never much below 60%. The measure never had a chance.

QUESTION: Lane County plans to place this measure on the May ballot:
To ensure road safety by modestly increasing vehicle registration fee.  Shall streets, roads, and bridges be kept safe and well maintained through a $35/year increase in the vehicle registration fee? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 200 likely Lane County May Special Election voters were conducted each of March 9-10, 2015, April 1-2, April 27-28, and May 10-11, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

ELECTION RESULTS: Lane County Elections, Final Unofficial.

After getting every statewide partisan candidate and statewide measure contest right in last November’s General Election, the company’s extended that streak.

The company got Lane County’s Vehicle Registration Fee result right last night. The company’s polling was consistently below 40 percent and the final result, as of this writing, looks to be around 34 percent – within the margin of error of every single one of our polls.

This blog will post more results about the election after Lane County Elections produces the Final Unofficial results later this week.

The Lane County vehicle registration fee is losing among everyone except South Eugene Democrats.

This is more evidence that south Eugene’s politics differ sharply from the rest of the county.

QUESTION: Lane County plans to place this measure on the May ballot:
To ensure road safety by modestly increasing vehicle registration fee.  Shall streets, roads, and bridges be kept safe and well maintained through a $35/year increase in the vehicle registration fee? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 200 likely Lane County May Special Election voters were conducted each of March 9-10, 2015, April 1-2, April 27-28, and May 10-11, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

CHAID: The above four surveys were combined into a single dataset. The tree was constructed using CHAID with the dependent variables being: survey date, gender, age, political party, and county commission district.

The measure continues to gain. This is probably due to the political campaign in favor and the county’s information campaign. There has been no organized opposition. The measure seems on track to be around 40 percent.

These numbers are from one week ago.

QUESTION: Lane County plans to place this measure on the May ballot:
To ensure road safety by modestly increasing vehicle registration fee.  Shall streets, roads, and bridges be kept safe and well maintained through a $35/year increase in the vehicle registration fee? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 200 likely Lane County May Special Election voters were conducted each of March 9-10, 2015, April 1-2, April 27-28, and May 10-11, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

The “yes” percentage jumped up since the beginning of the month and the “no” has continued its steady decline.

It’s not time for supporters to get too excited yet. Everything is consistent with the typical mid 30s support for new measures. However, things are going in the right direction.

Several observations: First, both the county’s and the political campaign have now kicked off. They almost certainly had some effect. Next, we’re getting further from the Kitzhaber resignation. That probably also had an effect. Finally, the “no” side is still at 60%. It still needs to drop a long way before the measure has any chance to pass.

QUESTION: Lane County plans to place this measure on the May ballot:
To ensure road safety by modestly increasing vehicle registration fee.  Shall streets, roads, and bridges be kept safe and well maintained through a $35/year increase in the vehicle registration fee? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 200 likely Lane County May Special Election voters were conducted each of March 9-10, 2015, April 1-2, and April 27-28, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.