Lindholm Company Blog

The precinct-level election returns data for the Eugene Library Levy are just out. The levy won big in the three South Eugene wards and lost in the other five wards in the city. That created the margin of victory.

This does not tell the whole story. First, the library levy failed overwhelmingly in Bethel despite the branch library. This was probably not so much a rejection of the library as a rejection of city hall. Bethel has consistently rejected city measures, and taxes, for a while.

Second, the levy was reasonably close in the other four northern and western wards. This bodes well for the library. Finally, the abnormally high yes margins, even for South Eugene, in wards 1 (Brown) and 3 (Zelenka) were critical to victory.

Source of data: Lane County Elections

Geographic Orientation:
South Eugene = Wards 1, 2, and 3.
North Eugene = Wards 4 and 5.
West Eugene = Wards 6, 7, and 8.
For a map of council districts: http://eugene-or.gov/index.aspx?NID=2636

This chart presents the Eugene citywide yes percentage for the five most recent money measures.

First, old fashioned property tax measures do best. The Lane Jail Levy and Eugene Library did best.

Second, turnout is not everything. Message matters. The wide spread between Lane County’s Jail Levy and Eugene’s City Fee despite being on the same ballot and having the same voters is clear evidence.

Finally, the county isn’t doing that badly in Eugene. Despite being creamed countywide, Lane County’s Vehicle Registration Fee did not do very badly in Eugene and did a lot better than either the City Fee or the City Income Tax.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Governor Kate Brown’s favorable and unfavorable have steadily climbed in tandem as she has become better known. The key shift came when she became Governor.

QUESTION: I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kate Brown?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 400 likely Oregon gubernatorial general election voters were conducted each of October 27-30 2014, February 9-11, 2015, July 13-15, 2015, and September 14-16, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region.

Kitzhaber’s unfavorable have steadily climbed as his favorable have declined.

QUESTION: I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Kitzhaber?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 400 likely Oregon gubernatorial general election voters were conducted each of October 27-30 2014, February 9-11, 2015, July 13-15, 2015, and September 14-16, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region.

Mayor Piercy’s job performance rating declined during the library campaign. Earlier posts have pointed out how important the mayor’s standing is for measures. These include: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=9415 and http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=12379. This implies that her ratings decline during the campaign hurt the support for the library measure. The library’s win supports the notion of a comeback during the final week.

It is not clear why this decline occurred, but it also happened in the 2013 fee campaign (http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=9267). However, that measure, unlike the library, lost in a landslide.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job Eugene Mayor Kitty Piercy is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene November 2015 Special Election voters were conducted October 14-15, 2015 and again on October 26-27, 2015 for a total of 400 interviews. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

This post is motivated by the early study of measures under Eugene mayors Kitty Piercy and Jim Torrey. The question is: how correlated was approval of Kitty Piercy with support for the library measure.

The answer is: a lot!

This graphic shows the correspondence between support for the library measure and approval of Mayor Kitty Piercy in the first tracking poll – just before the ballots were mailed.

There was a very high correspondence. The distance between the “Don’t Knows” in part is due to their small number and the difference between uncertainty about the mayor and indecision about the measure.

This graphic provides a detailed picture of all question options. Those rating the mayor excellent are also those most in favor of the measure. Similarly, those rating her good or unsure are also yes voters.

Interestingly, those rating her fair are close to the four neighboring responses: somewhat yes, don’t know, lean no, and somewhat no. This implies that these four responses are all, to some extent, similar. Past analyses have indicated that “Lean Yes” responses on measures are those most likely to swing no over time.

Following up on these observations the next is natural: those rating the mayor poor are correlated with those who are strongly no.

QUESTIONS: 1. Eugene will have this measure on the November 3 ballot: Five-Year Library Local Option Levy. Shall Eugene levy $2, 700,000/year for five years, beginning 2016-2017, to increase library hours and expand other library services? This measure may cause property taxes to increase more than three percent? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no? IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

2. How would you rate the job Eugene Mayor Kitty Piercy is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene November 2015 Special Election voters were conducted October 14-15, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.

The technique of correspondence analysis was applied to the data. It is a form of visual cross tabulation (sometime called internals). The distance between points essentially measures their correlation.

“Approval” includes “Excellent” and “Good” responses. “Disapproval” includes “Fair” and “Poor” responses. Past analyses indicate this is a good measure of relative support.

Support for and opposition to the library measure divided most strongly on partisan lines. The level of support from Democrats did not match the opposition from Republicans.

QUESTION: Eugene will have this measure on the November 3 ballot: Five-Year Library Local Option Levy. Shall Eugene levy $2, 700,000/year for five years, beginning 2016-2017, to increase library hours and expand other library services? This measure may cause property taxes to increase more than three percent? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no? IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene November 2015 Special Election voters were conducted October 14-15, 2015 and again on October 26-27, 2015 for a total of 400 interviews. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.

This post tracks the expected yes percentage. Due to the small “Don’t know” percentage, the two graphs are almost identical.

QUESTION: Eugene will have this measure on the November 3 ballot: Five-Year Library Local Option Levy. Shall Eugene levy $2, 700,000/year for five years, beginning 2016-2017, to increase library hours and expand other library services? This measure may cause property taxes to increase more than three percent? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no? IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene November 2015 Special Election voters were conducted October 14-15, 2015 and again on October 26-27, 2015 for a total of 400 interviews. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.

Two points stand out about the library polling and final result. First, neither the polling nor the final result was much different from 50%.  Sure there was an up and down, but, there was very little overall movement. The total range was only 5% – less than the poll’s margin of error. The final result was only 2% above the initial poll. Second, this lack of movement is not surprising since the initial poll showed only 6% undecided. That is very low. People generally already had a clear opinion.

All of this implies the campaign was much more about small movements than wide information. The small but strong rise at the end of a campaign, under these conditions, generally indicates a strong and successful final push, either through get-out-the-vote (GOTV) or advocacy (mail, phone, etc.) or a combination. Data in future posts will tend to corroborate this conclusion.

QUESTION: Eugene will have this measure on the November 3 ballot: Five-Year Library Local Option Levy. Shall Eugene levy $2, 700,000/year for five years, beginning 2016-2017, to increase library hours and expand other library services? This measure may cause property taxes to increase more than three percent? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no? IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene November 2015 Special Election voters were conducted October 14-15, 2015 and again on October 26-27, 2015 for a total of 400 interviews. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.

The library keeps up its winning streak. Interestingly, the level of support remains steady from 2006.

Sources: Eugene Election History – 1896 to present; Lane County Elections.

See previous post for measures included.