Lindholm Company Blog

This post digs down into the name ID data. Hard name ID is where voters have an opinion and is often a better gauge of how an election campaign is going.

Here, as before, Mike Clark has the lead. Lucy Vinis, though, is closing rapidly. Clark gained 15 points and Vinis 11 points since last July. She has nearly caught up to Bob Cassidy who has not moved by a statistically significant amount. It is relevant to note that neither Vinis nor Cassidy have yet caught up to where Clark was last summer.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______ IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
RANDOMIZE ORDER
1. Kitty Piercy
2. Bob Cassidy
3. Mike Clark
4. Lucy Vinis
5. Stefan Strek (February 2016 only)

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2016 Primary voters were called each of July 20-21, 2015 and February 8-9, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%.

Hard name ID is the total percentage who have either a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the person.

This post examines how well known the mayoral candidates are and how likely primary voters’ familiarity with them has evolved over time.

It should be no surprise that Mike Clark leads in name ID.  He did last July and he does in this survey. A sitting city councilor for nearly a decade, he should have a lead. What is interesting is that EWEB Commissioner Bob Cassidy is still ahead of Lucy Vinis in 2nd place. Mayor Piercy’s name ID was included as a benchmark.

The gains since July are even more interesting. Clark, despite his original lead, has gained more than any other candidate. Vinis has gained the next most and Cassidy has gained slightly less than Vinis.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______ IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
RANDOMIZE ORDER
1. Kitty Piercy
2. Bob Cassidy
3. Mike Clark
4. Lucy Vinis
5. Stefan Strek (February 2016 only)

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2016 Primary voters were called each of July 20-21, 2015 and February 8-9, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%.

Soft name ID is the total percentage who have heard of the person.

Vinis has a dramatic fundraising and spending edge on Clark. However, the spending has so far had little effect on voters. While Vinis has gained 2 points since July, she has lost ground to Clark who has gained 9 points. And she didn’t gain any ground on Cassidy who has gained 2 points. (http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=12719)

There could be a number of reasons for this.  Vinis could be paying to build an organization – one she doesn’t have due to lack of prior elective experience. Alternatively, Clark, an experienced political consultant, could just be outmaneuvering the Vinis campaign. Another possibility, is that Clark received an unusually large boost from his announcement and the impact of the Vinis announcement could have faded. It could be all three. Time will tell.

METHODOLOGY: These are total reported cash contributions, expenditures, and on-hand from 2015 and 2016. Data were collected February 10, 2016 in order to best match the survey dates. Reported data often contain a lag that varies by campaign for strategic reasons. Some campaigns report immediately to appear strong while other delay reporting in order to appear weak. These impacts are generally relatively marginal.

Mike Clark’s jump between last July and this month far exceeds any gains by his potential rivals. Part of this could be due to his recent announcement. However, the July poll was conducted as Lucy Vinis was gearing up and Clark was in the news, so that cannot be the entire explanation.

QUESTION: As you may know, Kitty Piercy has announced she will not run for re-election as Mayor of Eugene. Several candidates have expressed a public interest in running for mayor. If the 2016 Eugene mayoral election were held today, would you vote for: {NAMES VARY BY DATE}? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2016 Primary voters were called each of January 13-14, 2015, July 20-21, 2015, and February 8-9, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%.

Strek has only been in one poll so his data point is a single dot. The others have been in multiple polls so the lines are visible. For the data on Strek, please see: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=12713.

Mike Clark holds a significant lead in a poll conducted last week.

The most likely explanation for the lead is that Clark has been faster at rallying his natural supporters than the other candidates.

It is important to remember that it is still early in the campaign and leads can evaporate. Jim Weaver led Jim Torrey 32 to 12 in mid March of 1996. Torrey wound up winning the primary by a solid margin on his way to election. Nevertheless, this is clearly good news for the Clark campaign.

The undecided, 64%, is a little larger than normal for this early in an election cycle, but well within normal variation.

QUESTION: As you may know, Kitty Piercy has announced she will not run for re-election as Mayor of Eugene. Several candidates have expressed a public interest in running for mayor. If the 2016 Eugene mayoral election were held today, would you vote for: Mike Clark, Bob Cassidy, Stefan Strek, or Lucy Vinis [ROTATE NAMES]? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2016 Primary voters were called February 8-9, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%.

STATEMENT OF INTEREST: The Lindholm Company, LLC, is providing neither consulting services nor pro bono advice for any  2016 Eugene mayoral campaign.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read statements from three fictitious people to you about the transient population in downtown Eugene and ask which one comes closest to your view: ROTATE READ 1 TO 3 OR READ 3 TO 1
Bradshaw:  ___  makes me feel much less safe and less likely to go to businesses there.
Philips: ___  makes me feel somewhat less safe and less likely to go to businesses there.
Andrews: ___  does not make me feel less safe and has no effect on whether I would go to businesses there.

METHODOLOGY: 200 telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely general election voters were conducted the nights of June 1-2, September 21-22, and December 1-2, 2015. The margin of error at the median is 7%. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Ratings of the downtown business climate have declined significantly.  Approval (excellent + good) has gone from 52% to 41%.

QUESTION: How would you rate the business environment in downtown Eugene: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely general election voters were conducted the nights of June 1-2, September 21-22, and December 1-2, 2015. The margin of error at the median is 7%. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

There has been a significant increase in those rating the downtown crime problem poor.

QUESTION: How would you rate the crime problem in downtown Eugene: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely general election voters were conducted the nights of June 1-2, September 21-22, and December 1-2, 2015. The margin of error at the median is 7%. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Ratings of downtown Eugene generally declined during 2015.

QUESTION: How would you rate Downtown Eugene: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely general election voters were conducted the nights of June 1-2, September 21-22, and December 1-2, 2015. The margin of error at the median is 7%. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

It seems people who don’t have to go downtown have been coming to downtown Eugene less frequently. “Weekly” trips have shifted to “monthly” and “rarely.”

QUESTION: How often do you go to downtown Eugene: daily, weekly, monthly, rarely, never?

METHODOLOGY: 200 telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely general election voters were conducted the nights of June 1-2, September 21-22, and December 1-2, 2015. The margin of error at the median is 7%. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.