Lindholm Company Blog

Although the undecided rates remained about constant beween the two surveys, the familiarity of major candidates increased.

QUESTIONS: I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______
1. Barack Obama
2. George W. Bush
3. Donald J Trump
4. Mike Pence
5. Hillary Clinton
6. Tim Kaine
7. Jill Stein
8. Ajamu Baraka
9. Gary Johnson
10. William Weld
11. Steven C Reynolds
12. Ron Wyden
13. Mark Callahan
14. Eric Navickas
15. Shanti S Lewallen
16. James Foster
17. Kate Brown
18. Cliff Thomason
19. Aaron Donald Auer
20. Bud Pierce
21. Dennis Richardson
22. Paul Damian Wells
23. Brad Avakian
24. Alan Zundel
25. Chris Henry
26. Tobias Read
27. Jeff Gudman
28. Chris Telfer
29. Ellen Rosenblum
30. Daniel Zene Crowe

A placebo name was included in the questionnaire, but is not listed here.

METHODOLOGY: Two surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6 and October 17-21, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

As with the candidate contests, there has been little movement in the undecided percentages for the measures.

QUESTIONS: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on ________________, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
DO NOT ROTATE QUESTIONS
1. Measure 94 Amends Constitution: Eliminates mandatory retirement age for state judges
2. Measure 95 Amends Constitution: Allows investments in equities by public universities to reduce financial risk and increase investments to benefit students.
3. Measure 96 Amends Constitution: Dedicates 1.5% of state lottery net proceeds to funding support services for Oregon veterans
4. Measure 97 Increases corporate minimum tax when sales exceed $25 million; funds education, healthcare, senior services
5. Measure 98 Requires state funding for dropout-prevention, career and college readiness programs in Oregon high schools
6. Measure 99 Creates “Outdoor School Education Fund,” continuously funded through Lottery, to provide outdoor school programs statewide
7. Measure 100 Prohibits purchase or sale of parts or products from certain wildlife species; exceptions; civil penalties

METHODOLOGY: Two surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6 and October 17-21, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%.

The relative sizes of undecided voters follows than standard pattern noted last week. There has been negligible reduction in undecided in the candidate contests between the two surveys. In other words, voters haven’t been doing much and were waiting for their ballots.

QUESTIONS:
1. If the election  for President and Vice President were held today, would you vote for Donald J Trump and Mike Pence, Republican, or Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, Democrat, or Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka , Pacific Green, Progressive, or Gary Johnson and William Weld, Libertarian?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

2. If the election for United States Senator were held today, would you vote for  Steven C Reynolds, Independent, or Ron Wyden, Democrat, or Mark Callahan, Republican, or  Eric Navickas, Pacific Green, Progressive, or Shanti S Lewallen Working Families?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

3. If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for James Foster, Libertarian, or Kate Brown, Democrat, Working Families, or Cliff Thomason, Independent, or Aaron Donald Auer, Constitution, or Bud Pierce, Republican?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

4. If the election for Secretary of State were held today, would you vote for  Dennis Richardson, Republican, or Paul Damian Wells, Independent, or Brad Avakian, Democrat, Working Families, Progressive, or Alan Zundel, Pacific Green?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

5. If the election for State Treasurer were held today, would you vote for Chris Henry, Progressive, Pacific Green, or Tobias Read, Democrat, or Jeff Gudman, Republican, or Chris Telfer, Independent?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

6. If the election  for Attorney General were held today, would you vote for Ellen Rosenblum, Democrat, Independent, Working Families, or Daniel Zene Crowe, Republican?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Two surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6 and October 17-21, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

This graphic lists the name familiarity by candidate. The general order follows as one would expect.

QUESTIONS: I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______
1. Barack Obama
2. George W. Bush
3. Donald J Trump
4. Mike Pence
5. Hillary Clinton
6. Tim Kaine
7. Jill Stein
8. Ajamu Baraka
9. Gary Johnson
10. William Weld
11. Steven C Reynolds
12. Ron Wyden
13. Mark Callahan
14. Eric Navickas
15. Shanti S Lewallen
16. James Foster
17. Kate Brown
18. Cliff Thomason
19. Aaron Donald Auer
20. Bud Pierce
21. Dennis Richardson
22. Paul Damian Wells
23. Brad Avakian
24. Alan Zundel
25. Chris Henry
26. Tobias Read
27. Jeff Gudman
28. Chris Telfer
29. Ellen Rosenblum
30. Daniel Zene Crowe

A placebo name was included in the questionnaire, but is not listed here.

METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters were conducted October 3-6, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

In general, the undecided is lower the more prominent the measure or the more of a “no-brainer” the decision is. Clearly, Measure 97 should be no surprise given the amount of coverage and the level of campaign spending to date.

QUESTIONS: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on ________________, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
DO NOT ROTATE QUESTIONS
1. Measure 94 Amends Constitution: Eliminates mandatory retirement age for state judges
2. Measure 95 Amends Constitution: Allows investments in equities by public universities to reduce financial risk and increase investments to benefit students.
3. Measure 96 Amends Constitution: Dedicates 1.5% of state lottery net proceeds to funding support services for Oregon veterans
4. Measure 97 Increases corporate minimum tax when sales exceed $25 million; funds education, healthcare, senior services
5. Measure 98 Requires state funding for dropout-prevention, career and college readiness programs in Oregon high schools
6. Measure 99 Creates “Outdoor School Education Fund,” continuously funded through Lottery, to provide outdoor school programs statewide
7. Measure 100 Prohibits purchase or sale of parts or products from certain wildlife species; exceptions; civil penalties

METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters were conducted October 3-6, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

This graphic displays the undecided vote by contest.  The general rule is that the undecided is smaller the more prominent the contest, the less complicated the contest (as in two-way versus three-way), and if there is an incumbent running. The last point accounts for the small undecided in the Attorney General contest.

QUESTIONS:
1. If the election  for President and Vice President were held today, would you vote for Donald J Trump and Mike Pence, Republican, or Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, Democrat, or Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka , Pacific Green, Progressive, or Gary Johnson and William Weld, Libertarian?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

2. If the election for United States Senator were held today, would you vote for  Steven C Reynolds, Independent, or Ron Wyden, Democrat, or Mark Callahan, Republican, or  Eric Navickas, Pacific Green, Progressive, or Shanti S Lewallen Working Families?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

3. If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for James Foster, Libertarian, or Kate Brown, Democrat, Working Families, or Cliff Thomason, Independent, or Aaron Donald Auer, Constitution, or Bud Pierce, Republican?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

4. If the election for Secretary of State were held today, would you vote for  Dennis Richardson, Republican, or Paul Damian Wells, Independent, or Brad Avakian, Democrat, Working Families, Progressive, or Alan Zundel, Pacific Green?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

5. If the election for State Treasurer were held today, would you vote for Chris Henry, Progressive, Pacific Green, or Tobias Read, Democrat, or Jeff Gudman, Republican, or Chris Telfer, Independent?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

6. If the election  for Attorney General were held today, would you vote for Ellen Rosenblum, Democrat, Independent, Working Families, or Daniel Zene Crowe, Republican?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters were conducted October 3-6, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

There is an even closer partisan link with Measure 97 positions among the major party gubernatorial nominees than among the major party presidential nominees.

QUESTIONS:
If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for James Foster, Libertarian, or Kate Brown, Democrat, Working Families, or Cliff Thomason, Independent, or Aaron Donald Auer, Constitution, or Bud Pierce, Republican?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 97 Increases corporate minimum tax when sales exceed $25 million; funds education, healthcare, senior services, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?

SAMPLING METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters were conducted October 3-6, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%.

STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY: Correspondence Analysis can be seen as a visual version of a crosstabulation. It represents in distance the similarity between responses from two questions. Responses along the same angle tend to be similar. The closer to the center of the graphic the closer to the median of the electorate.

Support and opposition for Measure 97 has clear and predictable partisan division.

QUESTIONS:
If the election  for President and Vice President were held today, would you vote for Donald J Trump and Mike Pence, Republican, or Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, Democrat, or Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka , Pacific Green, Progressive, or Gary Johnson and William Weld, Libertarian?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 97 Increases corporate minimum tax when sales exceed $25 million; funds education, healthcare, senior services, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?

SAMPLING METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters were conducted October 3-6, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY: Correspondence Analysis can be seen as a visual version of a crosstabulation. It represents in distance the similarity between responses from two questions. Responses along the same angle tend to be similar. The closer to the center of the graphic the closer to the median of the electorate.

The graphic shows the importance of partisan labels. Clinton and Brown are practically the same to voters. Similarly, Trump and Pierce are practically the same. However, Johnson has successfully expanded his support beyond the standard Libertarian base – not how far away from the center Foster, the Libertarian gubernatorial nominee, is.

QUESTIONS:
If the election  for President and Vice President were held today, would you vote for Donald J Trump and Mike Pence, Republican, or Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, Democrat, or Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka , Pacific Green, Progressive, or Gary Johnson and William Weld, Libertarian?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for James Foster, Libertarian, or Kate Brown, Democrat, Working Families, or Cliff Thomason, Independent, or Aaron Donald Auer, Constitution, or Bud Pierce, Republican?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

SAMPLING METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters were conducted October 3-6, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY: Correspondence Analysis can be seen as a visual version of a crosstabulation. It represents in distance the similarity between responses from two questions. Responses along the same angle tend to be similar. The closer to the center of the graphic the closer to the median of the electorate.

This graphic shows the voters’ perceptions of the seven ballot measures. In general, the more conservative measures are on top and the more liberal measures are on the bottom.

QUESTIONS: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on ________________, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
DO NOT ROTATE QUESTIONS
1. Measure 94 Amends Constitution: Eliminates mandatory retirement age for state judges
2. Measure 95 Amends Constitution: Allows investments in equities by public universities to reduce financial risk and increase investments to benefit students.
3. Measure 96 Amends Constitution: Dedicates 1.5% of state lottery net proceeds to funding support services for Oregon veterans
4. Measure 97 Increases corporate minimum tax when sales exceed $25 million; funds education, healthcare, senior services
5. Measure 98 Requires state funding for dropout-prevention, career and college readiness programs in Oregon high schools
6. Measure 99 Creates “Outdoor School Education Fund,” continuously funded through Lottery, to provide outdoor school programs statewide
7. Measure 100 Prohibits purchase or sale of parts or products from certain wildlife species; exceptions; civil penalties

SAMPLING METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters were conducted October 3-6, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY – PERCEPTUAL MAP: The perceptual map was constructed using factor analysis. Technically, it a Principal Components Analysis was used with unrotated factors. A seven-point scale for each of the questions was used. Factors were deemed significant if their eigenvalue was greater than one.

This methodology was used because it involved the least number of assumptions and, in that sense, was the “purest” way to obtain the results. There are more sophisticated methods that would arguably be more illuminating. The objective here was lack of bias and transparency.