Archive for October 2016

Vinis Lags Peers in Name Familiarity

image002

This graphic places Lucy Vinis’ name familiarity deficit in perspective. Only the five most prominent Eugene officials are included – her peer group. She is far behind Mayor Piercy and both county commissioners. She is even well behind Mike Clark whom she bested in May. No other major candidate for mayor in at least 20 years has had a name familiarity this low at this time of the year.

There are several possible reasons for this. To begin with, Vinis has been nearly invisible since her victory in May. Another is probably that Vinis is new to elective office. She has no long-term constituency. It could also show that Vinis’ mayoral quest was more campaign-driven, she talked to the voters she needed to talk to, than community-driven, engaging in a broad community discussion.

Though mayor’s tend to become well known once they assume office, no one starts with 95% name identification, a 40-point deficit seems extreme. This lack of name familiarity, whatever the cause, could turn out to be a serious problem.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each.
NAMES READ IN RANDOM ORDER
1. Mike Clark
2. Kitty Piercy
3. Pat Farr
4. Peter Sorenson
5. Lucy Vinis

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2016 General election voters were conducted September 13-15, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%.

N.B. The “20 years” refers to the firm’s polling. It seems reasonable one could go much further back. It is hard to imagine that less than two-thirds of Eugeneans were familiar with either Ruth Bascom or Mary Burrows in 1992, Jeff Miller or Emily Schue in 1988, Brian Obie in 1984, etc.

Eugene Public Official Name Familiarity, Sept. 2016

image002

This graphic expands the list of persons included. Mayor Piercy and both county commissioners top the list as one would expect.

Unexpectedly, Lucy Vinis, who just won the mayoral primary and will appear unopposed on the November ballot, is in the middle of the list.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each.
NAMES READ IN RANDOM ORDER
1. George Brown
2. Betty Taylor
3. Alan Zelenka
4. George Poling
5. Mike Clark
6. Greg Evans
7. Claire Syrett
8. Chris Pryor
9. Kitty Piercy
10. Pat Farr
11. Peter Sorenson
12. Lucy Vinis

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2016 General election voters were conducted September 13-15, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%.

Eugene City Councilor Name Familiarity, Sept. 2016

image004

This graphic shows the name familiarity of the eight city councilors. The order is pretty much what one would expect. Betty Taylor remains the best known. Mike Clark, fresh off his mayoral bid, is next. Chris Pryor comes third.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each.
NAMES READ IN RANDOM ORDER
1. George Brown
2. Betty Taylor
3. Alan Zelenka
4. George Poling
5. Mike Clark
6. Greg Evans
7. Claire Syrett
8. Chris Pryor

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2016 General election voters were conducted September 13-15, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%.