Lindholm Company Blog

Both Clinton and Trump had net negative ratings. Clinton’s remained above Trump’s throughout.

QUESTIONS: Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______ IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
RANDOMIZE
1. Donald J Trump
2. Hillary Clinton

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

Despite Oregon being a blue state, Hilary Clinton’s negatives were never below her positives.

QUESTIONS: Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Hillary Clinton? IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

Trump’s favorability rating remained constant and very negative among Oregonians during the last five weeks of the campaign.

QUESTIONS: Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald J. Trump? IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

As one would expect, party was the primary determinant of voting. Other key demographics were education, age, and gender.

QUESTION: If the election  for President and Vice President were held today, would you vote for Donald J Trump and Mike Pence, Republican, or Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, Democrat, or Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka , Pacific Green, Progressive, or Gary Johnson and William Weld, Libertarian?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

These three surveys were then pooled to create The key demographics were determined using CHAID methodology.

Political party was the single best determinant of support for Measure 97. Interestingly, the drop in Republican support paralleled the drop statewide that signaled the measure’s defeat.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 97 Increases corporate minimum tax when sales exceed $25 million; funds education, healthcare, senior services, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

These three surveys were then pooled to create The key demographics were determined using CHAID methodology.

Support for Measure 97 dropped rapidly once the campaign began and remained around 40% for the duration.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 97 Increases corporate minimum tax when sales exceed $25 million; funds education, healthcare, senior services, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

SOURCES: Election data from Oregon Secretary of State.

Clinton’s advantage remained relatively steady over time.

QUESTION: If the election  for President and Vice President were held today, would you vote for Donald J Trump and Mike Pence, Republican, or Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, Democrat, or Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka , Pacific Green, Progressive, or Gary Johnson and William Weld, Libertarian?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

SOURCES: Election data from Oregon Secretary of State.

This blog is going to begin a series of posts based polling data collected during the 2016 Oregon General Election.  We will present the most prominent and interesting polling numbers first. Less prominent contests will come later – many in 2017.

We believe these analyses to be accurate. Though the headlines this year emphasize the inaccuracy of polling, our polls, just as in 2014, the firm’s polling correctly called every 2016 Oregon statewide partisan and measure contest. Although not a foolproof measure of accuracy, it is best assurance we can offer.

Oregonians outside the more urban Tri-County area voted to support expanding prohibition. As noted in the last post, the national pattern where urban areas were more supportive and rural areas were less supportive of prohibition also held in Oregon.

Source: Oregon Secretary of State.

Oregonians had passed a Prohibition Constitutional Amendment in 1914.  The 18th Amendment to the United States Constitution only took effect in 1920. In 1916, Oregonians were asked whether they wanted to pull back from prohibition (Measure 8) or to expand the impact of prohibition (measure 9).

The rejected pulling back by a landslide. The only place it was close was in Multnomah county. Across the nation prohibition did better in rural areas and worse in urban areas. That was true in Oregon as well.

Source: Oregon Secretary of State.