Archive for December 2016

Key Demographics: Clinton and Trump Unfavorables in Oregon


One of the most frequently found polling results on the national presidential campaign were the high negative ratings of the two major party candidates. This post examines the unfavorable ratings for the two candidates.

The most important split was by party. Age, education, and home ownership status, whether the person owned or rented their home, were also important.

QUESTIONS: Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______ IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
1. Donald J Trump
2. Hillary Clinton

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

These three surveys were then pooled to create The key demographics were determined using CHAID methodology.
Four codes were used:
1. Both: Unfavorable about both Clinton and Trump.
2. Clinton: Unfavorable about Clinton.
3. Trump: Unfavorable about Trump.
4. Neither: Unfavorable about neither Clinton nor Trump.