Lindholm Company Blog

Mayor Piercy gets a decidedly fair rating.

QUESTION: Now I would like to list a set of issues facing Eugene and ask you to rate how well Mayor Piercy did on each issue: excellent, good, fair, poor?
Reducing crime?

METHODOLOGY: 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 6%.

Dennis Richardson is the first Republican to win a statewide race since 2002 and the first to be elected to a statewide position since 1996. He won for a variety of reasons. An important factor, as shown by the polling presented earlier is that he had a name familiarity advantage from his run for Governor in 2014.

Since 1980, only two Republicans have been elected, as opposed to appointed, to statewide office: Jack Roberts and Gordon Smith. Smith, elected to the U. S. Senate in November 1996, had just lost a U.S. Senate bid to Ron Wyden in March, 1996. Smith’s name familiarity advantage certainly helped him. Roberts, on the other hand, won in his first try for elective office.

Richardson followed the Smith model to elective office and not the Roberts model. In recent years, this seems the most efficient route to statewide office for Republicans.

Party was the primary determinant of support. Age, income and gender were also important. Interestingly, older Democrats were less supportive of Avakian.

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

These three surveys were then pooled to create The key demographics were determined using CHAID methodology.

This issue is critical for any government. The poor rating at nearly a third is not a good result.

This is particularly important in passing ballot measures. See: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=9415

QUESTION: Now I would like to list a set of issues facing Eugene and ask you to rate how well Mayor Piercy did on each issue: excellent, good, fair, poor?
Building trust in Eugene’s government?

METHODOLOGY: 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 6%.

Richardson maintained a statistically significant name familiarity advantage throughout the campaign. This was probably a residual from his 2014 gubernatorial bid. This is also probably a big reason for his victory.

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

This was THE issue during Mayor Piercy’s 2008 re-election campaign. The recurring road repair measures have become a Piercy trademark.

QUESTION: Now I would like to list a set of issues facing Eugene and ask you to rate how well Mayor Piercy did on each issue: excellent, good, fair, poor?
Fixing potholes and street improvements?

METHODOLOGY: 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 6%.

Richardson maintained a narrow lead throughout the campaign.

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

SOURCES: Election data from Oregon Secretary of State.

Downtown has been a major issue throughout Mayor Piercy’s tenure. One of her first measures was an downtown urban renewal in 2007. However, it lost in a landslide. Though there has been considerable economic development, it is likely that the law enforcement problems have also been noticed. See: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=13866

QUESTION: Now I would like to list a set of issues facing Eugene and ask you to rate how well Mayor Piercy did on each issue: excellent, good, fair, poor?
Revitalizing downtown Eugene?

METHODOLOGY: 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 6%.

Party was the primary determinant of voting. Interestingly, Kate Brown did better among Democrats as their education increased.

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

These three surveys were then pooled to create The key demographics were determined using CHAID methodology.