Lindholm Company Blog

Party was the primary determinant of voting. Wyden did well among all demographic groups. Age, income, and gender also helped determine support.

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

These three surveys were then pooled to create The key demographics were determined using CHAID methodology.

Eugenean’s ratings of downtown have fallen precipitously during the past two years. There has been a nearly constant drop in “good” ratings and rise in “poor” ratings.

Also note that this particular time series started two years ago and the trend has been reasonably consistent.

QUESTION: How would you rate the business environment in downtown Eugene: excellent, good, fair, poor?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 1-2, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, and April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Starting tomorrow and continuing on Tuesdays will be a series analyzing a recent poll on Eugene voters.

Ron Wyden maintained a wide name familiarity advantage throughout the campaign.

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

This post tests which issues were most important to respondents in rating Mayor Piercy and then measures their share of impact.

Building trust was the most important. This makes sense because of its role in passing measures and moving community consensus. Traffic and downtown are important as is working with other local governments.

QUESTIONS:
How would you rate the job Eugene Mayor Kitty Piercy is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

How would you rate the job Eugene Mayor Kitty Piercy is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

Now I would like to list a set of issues facing Eugene and ask you to rate how well Mayor Piercy did on each issue: excellent, good, fair, poor?
RANDOMIZE ORDER
1. Protecting wetlands and other environmentally sensitive areas in the city?
2. Promoting sustainability?
3. Working with other cities and Lane County?
4. Reducing crime?
5. Fixing potholes and street improvements?
6. Bringing new jobs to Eugene?
7. Reducing traffic congestion?
8. Revitalizing downtown Eugene?
9. Increasing affordable housing?
10. Building trust in Eugene’s government?
11. Solving the homeless problem?
12. Building city hall?

METHODOLOGY: 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 6%.

Various specifications of a multiple regression model were applied to the data. There are limitations using a five-point scale in this kind of work. However, the results are highly consistent regardless of specification.

Wyden Maintained a wide lead throughout the campaign.

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

SOURCES: Election data from Oregon Secretary of State.

This summarizes the issues where Mayor Piercy was tested. Only three of the twelve had positive net approvals and three have net approvals below minus 50%.

QUESTION: Now I would like to list a set of issues facing Eugene and ask you to rate how well Mayor Piercy did on each issue: excellent, good, fair, poor?
RANDOMIZE ORDER
1. Protecting wetlands and other environmentally sensitive areas in the city?
2. Promoting sustainability?
3. Working with other cities and Lane County?
4. Reducing crime?
5. Fixing potholes and street improvements?
6. Bringing new jobs to Eugene?
7. Reducing traffic congestion?
8. Revitalizing downtown Eugene?
9. Increasing affordable housing?
10. Building trust in Eugene’s government?
11. Solving the homeless problem?
12. Building city hall?

METHODOLOGY: 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 6%.

Net approval equals the percentage rating Mayor Piercy either excellent or good minus the percentage rating her either fair or poor. This is the standard methodology used in the polling in this blog. As a practical matter, it is a good predictor of voting behavior.

Party was the primary determinant of voting. Congressional District and gender were also important.

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

These three surveys were then pooled to create The key demographics were determined using CHAID methodology.

Nearly half of Eugeneans rate Mayor Piercy as poor on homelessness. This was a major issue during the last half of her administration; and particularly since the 2011-12 Occupy Eugene episode.

Lucy Vinis made homelessness a major issue during her successful May 2016 campaign.

QUESTION: Now I would like to list a set of issues facing Eugene and ask you to rate how well Mayor Piercy did on each issue: excellent, good, fair, poor?
Solving the homeless problem?

METHODOLOGY: 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 6%.