Lindholm Company Blog

The Lane Jail Levy was far ahead throughout the campaign. Support was never below 60%.

BALLOT QUESTION WORDING:
DECEMBER 2016
Now, as you may know, Lane County is considering renewing the current jail levy.
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure: Renewal of jail, youth services, and related treatment, five-year-levy. Shall County retain jail beds and adult/youth offender treatments levying maximum of $0.55 [55 cents] per $1,000 assessed valuation for five years commencing 2018/19. This measure renews current local option taxes?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

APRIL & MAY 2017
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure:
Renewal of jail and critical youth services five-year-levy. Shall County retain jail beds, critical youth treatments levying $0.55 [55 cents] per $1,000 assessed valuation, for five years commencing 2018/19. This measure renews current local option taxes?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely 2017 Lane County Special Election voters were conducted on each of December 12-14, 2016, April 24 and 25, 2017, and May 8 and 9, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each of the surveys is plus or minus 7%.

ELECTION RETURNS: Lane County Elections.

Eugene’s economic growth is seen as getting better.

QUESTION: Do you believe that recent economic growth in Eugene has been too fast, too slow, or just about right?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of November 29 through December 1, 2016 and April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

A previous post indicated that there was higher turnout in western Lane County than in the rest of the county. This diagram shows that most of that extra turnout came from the Siuslaw Port District.

This turnout bump was probably due to the very active campaigns concerning Bill Fleenor’s campaign for Siuslaw Port Commissioner.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

The primary determinant was party. Other important variables were age, education, gender, and income.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 100 Prohibits purchase or sale of parts or products from certain wildlife species; exceptions; civil penalties, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

These three surveys were then pooled to create The key demographics were determined using CHAID methodology.

Adding an elected Independent Auditor in Eugene is supported by a wide margin. However, it does not hit the crucial 70% level. Ideas that sound good tend to get a large amount of initial support. Campaigns tend to reduce that support. Usually a measure like this would need something above 60% to be really ahead and would like north of 70% to be comfortable.

It’s important to keep in mind that this is based on the old wording and for a general election. Should have updated polling later in the year.

QUESTION: City of Eugene Office of the Independent Auditor. The auditor would be elected to four-year terms, would operate separately from the city council and manager and would conduct financial, performance and other audits of all city operations and activities.
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%.

NOTE: The text of the question was based on official documents and coverage by the Register Guard newspaper at the time of the survey. Subsequently the city proposed a caption and question which would lead to a different survey question wording.

The greatest increases were among two of the south Eugene wards (1 and 2) and the northwest Eugene ward 6.

Source of data: Lane County Elections

Measure 100 remained safely ahead throughout the election.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 100 Prohibits purchase or sale of parts or products from certain wildlife species; exceptions; civil penalties, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

SOURCES: Election data from Oregon Secretary of State.

People see population growth accelerating in Eugene.

QUESTION: Do you believe that recent population growth in Eugene has been too fast, too slow, or just about right?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of November 29 through December 1, 2016 and April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Ward 2, in the south hills, had the highest and Ward 3, around the University of Oregon, had the lowest turnout.

Source of data: Lane County Elections

The primary determinant was party. Income was the other important variable.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 99 Creates “Outdoor School Education Fund,” continuously funded through Lottery, to provide outdoor school programs statewide, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

These three surveys were then pooled to create The key demographics were determined using CHAID methodology.