Lindholm Company Blog

This graphic compares the vote percentages for mayor in 2012 and 2016. It assigns the percentages into three categories. The assumptions are 1. that the minor candidates in 2016 were winning votes from the left and 2. that the two Piercy challengers in 2012 were from the right.

This leaves us with the interesting result that Clark received the same percentage as Piercy’s two challengers in 2012 – thus replicating a minimum in support for a pro-business agenda.

Source of data: Lane County Elections

Though the streets measure won by a solid margin, it only won seven of eight wards. It actually lost Ward 6 (Bethel-Danebo/Northwest Eugene) by landslide proportions.

Paralleling the charter revision, the highest support came from the three southern wards (1, 2, and 3). Next came the two northern wards (4 and 5). The western wards had the least support (6, 7, and 8).

This pattern parallels other money measures.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

First, it’s clear that those who know who Eugene Mayor Lucy Vinis is generally like her. She’s had no bad press.

Second, as previous posts have indicated that’s faint praise because so few know her.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Lucy Vinis IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

The highest support came from the three southern wards (1, 2, and 3). Next came the two northern wards (4 and 5). The western wards had the least support (6, 7, and 8).

This pattern parallels other measures of the trust in Eugene’s government.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

This graph shows the Name ID levels of four prominent Eugene leaders. Notice that Pat Farr and Peter Sorenson compose the upper pair and closely track each other. The lower pair, Mike Clark and Lucy Vinis, also closely track in other. Essentially, Vinis is familiar to Eugeneans as would be a well-known city councilor.

What we should see is the green line rocketing upward in April and being off the chart, literally, in September.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each.
RANDOMIZE ORDER
1. Mike Clark
2. Peter Sorenson
3. Lucy Vinis
4. Pat Farr

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of September 13-15, 2016, December 2-3, 2016, April 10-11, 2017, and September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

N.B. Betty Taylor was omitted for simplicity of analysis. She did not run for mayor last year. Including her, either as an addition or instead of Mike Clark, would only further accentuate how unsuccessful Vinis’ efforts at community outreach have been.

Eugene Mayor Lucy Vinis’ name identification level has remained remarkably constant over the past year. Eugeneans’ familiarity with past mayors (Torrey and Piercy) has risen dramatically during the first year of office. Based on these examples she should be somewhere around the mid 90s not the mid 50s.

Vinis’ “city-council-level-familiarity” as seen in the last post is not just some one off. Her Name ID really hasn’t taken off.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each.

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Eugene’s city councilors line up in their usual order, generally correlated with years of experience and amount of new coverage.

What is most unusual is that Mayor Lucy Vinis is still in the middle of the pack rather than far ahead of the council.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each.
RANDOMIZE ORDER
1. Emily Semple
2. Betty Taylor
3. Alan Zelenka
4. Jennifer Yeh
5. Mike Clark
6. Greg Evans
7. Claire Syrett
8. Chris Pryor
9. Lucy Vinis
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

This blog will be posting polling results from September on Eugene politics this weekend starting later this morning.