Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category.

Series on Eugene Polling Starting

Starting tomorrow and continuing on Tuesdays will be a series analyzing a recent poll on Eugene voters.

Secretary of State Comments

Dennis Richardson is the first Republican to win a statewide race since 2002 and the first to be elected to a statewide position since 1996. He won for a variety of reasons. An important factor, as shown by the polling presented earlier is that he had a name familiarity advantage from his run for Governor in 2014.

Since 1980, only two Republicans have been elected, as opposed to appointed, to statewide office: Jack Roberts and Gordon Smith. Smith, elected to the U. S. Senate in November 1996, had just lost a U.S. Senate bid to Ron Wyden in March, 1996. Smith’s name familiarity advantage certainly helped him. Roberts, on the other hand, won in his first try for elective office.

Richardson followed the Smith model to elective office and not the Roberts model. In recent years, this seems the most efficient route to statewide office for Republicans.

Historical Retrospective Time … Again

As this blog has done during previous election weeks this blog is going to look back at an historical election. This time the blog will look at 1916 from 100 years ago. Once the dust settles, posts on the 2016 election results will resume.

 

Eugene City Councilor Name Familiarity, Sept. 2016

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This graphic shows the name familiarity of the eight city councilors. The order is pretty much what one would expect. Betty Taylor remains the best known. Mike Clark, fresh off his mayoral bid, is next. Chris Pryor comes third.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each.
NAMES READ IN RANDOM ORDER
1. George Brown
2. Betty Taylor
3. Alan Zelenka
4. George Poling
5. Mike Clark
6. Greg Evans
7. Claire Syrett
8. Chris Pryor

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2016 General election voters were conducted September 13-15, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%.

Recent Eugene Area Net Partisan Swing Margins

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This chart goes over the swing margins in some recent contests. The idea is that not every district is created equal. In particular, it’s pretty easy for a Democrat to build up a big margin in Eugene. Similarly, it’s relatively easier for a Republican to win in rural Lane County than in Eugene.

Farr’s margins, despite facing an incumbent in 2012 and an opponent with a long resume in 2016, were the largest of the group.

The standard swing in the state legislature or in other areas of the state is under 10%.

Source: Lane County Elections.

Methodology: Based on vote percentages at election and the corresponding voter registration figures. Equals the net margin ahead of principal progressive opponent plus the Democratic minus Republican registration margin. Green indicates a win and red indicates a loss.

Spending of Eugene’s Parks Money

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Although the Register Guard and a number of activists have argued this question, the nearly one-third undecided indicates this issue hasn’t reached out among the wider Eugene electorate.

N.B. This question was asked before the Register Guard editorial.

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of how the City of Eugene is spending the parks bond money?
IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene General Election voters were conducted February 22-23, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

LTD Board Job Approval Trend

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The LTD Board’s rating took a sharp upturn earlier this year after being steady for a long time. The “Don’t Knows” increased at the same time.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job the Lane Transit District Board of Directors is doing: excellent, good, fair,poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted February 16-18, 2015, June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 1-2, 2015, and February 22-23, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%.

The total might not equal 100% due to rounding.

1000th Post

We’ve hit another milestone.

901

This is the 901st post on this blog. We hit 900 yesterday. We’re on our way to 1,000.

Next week we’re going to take a short break from an analysis of the May Primary.