Archive for the ‘Eugene and Lane County’ Category.

Vinis Vote Pct. by Precinct

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Vinis’ strongest area was in south-central Eugene.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

For a more detailed map: vinis-vote-pct-may-2016

Clark v. Vinis Vote Pct. Difference by Precinct

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This map has the familiar pattern of previous mayoral contests. North and west Eugene largely voted for Clark and south Eugene largely voted for Vinis.

The difference is one of degree and of inroads. North and west Eugene were not as supportive and Vinis won several north and west precincts. Compare the 2008 mayoral race: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=3482.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

For a more detailed map: vinis-v-clark-difference-may-2016

Series Analyzing 2016 Eugene Mayoral Race

Starting Thursday and continuing on that day will be a weekly series of posts will examine the 2016 Eugene Mayoral race.

LTD Board Rating Steady

Though the LTD Board’s rating moves around quite a bit, it kept level since the last survey.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job the Lane Transit District Board of Directors is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 2-3, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, and April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Lane County Board Rating in Eugene Ticks Up

The Lane County board’s approval rating has jumped up since last year after being remarkably steady throughout 2016.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job the Lane County Board of Commissioners is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 2-3, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, and April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

EWEB Board Rating Moves Into Positive Territory

Continuing its steady rise from the December 2015 low point, the EWEB board’s rating is now net positive.

It is important to point out that this was our first poll after the major 2016 ice storm. The increase in the EWEB Board’s [sic.] rating, and the timing of the previous drops, make a pretty good case that the EWEB Board’s rating is primarily driven by rate changes not service or other factors. This makes sense because pocket book issues and tangible, as in clear and incontrovertible, issues tend to make a greater impact.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job the Eugene Water and Electric Board of Directors is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 2-3, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, and April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Eugene City Council Rating Steady

There has been little change in the Eugene City Council’s job performance rating since late 2015.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job The Eugene City Council is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 2-3, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, and April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Lane Jail Levy Key Demographics

As one would expect with a money measure, the most important demographic distinction is by party: Democrats are more supportive than Republicans and Others. Of greater interest is the increasing Democratic support over time. That more frequently voting non-Democrats are more likely to have decided to  vote no is common since they are usually relatively better informed. Remember that “Don’t Knows” in Lane County-area money measures almost always vote no.

BALLOT QUESTION WORDING:
DECEMBER 2016
Now, as you may know, Lane County is considering renewing the current jail levy.
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure: Renewal of jail, youth services, and related treatment, five-year-levy. Shall County retain jail beds and adult/youth offender treatments levying maximum of $0.55 [55 cents] per $1,000 assessed valuation for five years commencing 2018/19. This measure renews current local option taxes?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

APRIL & MAY 2017
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure:
Renewal of jail and critical youth services five-year-levy. Shall County retain jail beds, critical youth treatments levying $0.55 [55 cents] per $1,000 assessed valuation, for five years commencing 2018/19. This measure renews current local option taxes?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY:

INTERVIEWS: 200 live telephone interviews of likely 2017 Lane County Special Election voters were conducted on each of December 12-14, 2016, April 24 and 25, 2017, and May 8 and 9, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each of the surveys is plus or minus 7%.

STATISTICS: CHAID (Chi-Squared Automatic Interaction Detection) was used to create the tree.

Eugene Homeless Code Enforcement Opinion Trend

Opposition to relaxing homeless code enforcement continues. The seasonality in the trend also persists: opposition increases in warmer weather.

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the City of Eugene relaxing code enforcement on homeless camping? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of December 2-3, 2016, February 22-23, 2016, September 13-15, 2016, November 29-December 1, 2016, and April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Lane Jail Levy-Opinion Strength Trend

Notable is the increasing strength of Yes opinion over time. The “Strongly Yes” increased dramatically between December and April and stayed high.

BALLOT QUESTION WORDING:
DECEMBER 2016
Now, as you may know, Lane County is considering renewing the current jail levy.
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure: Renewal of jail, youth services, and related treatment, five-year-levy. Shall County retain jail beds and adult/youth offender treatments levying maximum of $0.55 [55 cents] per $1,000 assessed valuation for five years commencing 2018/19. This measure renews current local option taxes?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

APRIL & MAY 2017
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure:
Renewal of jail and critical youth services five-year-levy. Shall County retain jail beds, critical youth treatments levying $0.55 [55 cents] per $1,000 assessed valuation, for five years commencing 2018/19. This measure renews current local option taxes?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely 2017 Lane County Special Election voters were conducted on each of December 12-14, 2016, April 24 and 25, 2017, and May 8 and 9, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each of the surveys is plus or minus 7%.