Archive for the ‘Eugene and Lane County’ Category.

Eugeneans Evenly Divided on Urban Growth Boundary Expansion

Eugeneans’ opinions are evenly balanced on the question of expanding the city’s urban growth boundary.

QUESTION: Do you support or oppose expanding Eugene’s urban growth boundary? IF SUPPORT/OPPOSE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%.

2017 Jail Levy Increase on 2013 by Lane Region

All areas improved over 2017. Eugene, which was already the most supportive, increased by the most.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Vinis Mayoral Job Approval Rating Is Net Negative

Vinis’ job approval rating is underwater. A net negative rating like this implies she has not benefited from any honeymoon.

It’s is important to distinguish between the types of data. Mayor Vinis is relatively unknown, but those who know her like her. In the office of the mayor, on the other hand, she is underperforming.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job Eugene Mayor Lucy Vinis is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%.

May Special Ballot Return Rate by Lane Co. Comm. District

West Lane started returning ballots earlier than the other districts and just kept increasing its turnout margin.

Source of data: Lane County Elections

May Special Ballot Return Rate by Lane County Region

Rural Lane County returned ballots the fastest and returned the highest percentage.

Source of data: Lane County Elections

Vinis Favorability High – Among Those Who Know Her

Though Lucy Vinis is only known by a little more than half of Eugeneans, she is personally well liked by those who know of her. Her favorability ratio of about four-to-one (40/11) is very good.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each: Lucy Vinis? IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Lucy Vinis? IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of September 13-15, 2016, December 2-3, 2016, and April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

2017 Lane Jail Levy Yes Pct. by Commissioner District

All areas supported the jail levy was extraordinarily wide margins. As one would expect, the most supportive areas were the Eugene districts. Next came Springfield and the rural districts were the least supportive.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

2017 Jail Levy Yes Pct. by Lane Region

All areas of the county supported the jail levy by very wide margins. Eugene was the most supportive, then Springfield and, finally, the rural areas. Although the support was overwhelming nearly everywhere, there was a significant gap between the City of Eugene and the rest of the county.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Major Eugene-Area Leader Name Familiarity Post 2016 Primary Election

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This analysis is particularly interesting because it shows the impact of campaigns. Clark, Farr, and Sorenson ran in the May primary. Their name familiarity increased because of this. However, once the campaigns were done, their name familiarity dropped. They were no longer in the public eye. Piercy was mayor throughout the period and not on the ballot. This explains her consistency. Vinis remained constant because she was preparing to become Mayor in January 2017.

Emily Semple’s name familiarity appears also to have been affected by her campaign lasting until November (see http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=13965).

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______ IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
RANDOMIZE ORDER
1. Kitty Piercy
2. Lucy Vinis
3. Mike Clark
4. Peter Sorenson
5. Pat Farr

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted September 13-15, 2016.The margin of error at the sample median for this surveys is 7%. 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for this survey is 6%.

Eugene Mayoral Name Familiarity Comparable to Council’s

One way of seeing how low Mayor Vinis’ name familiarity is, is to compare her with the city councilors. Two, Betty Taylor and Mike Clark, are higher. Emily Semple is reasonably close. A mayor’s name familiarity should be much higher. Historically, it is generally in the 90s in Eugene.

QUESTION: City of Eugene Office of the Independent Auditor. The auditor would be elected to four-year terms, would operate separately from the city council and manager and would conduct financial, performance and other audits of all city operations and activities.
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%.
Lucy Vinis
Emily Semple
Betty Taylor
Alan Zelenka
George Poling
Mike Clark
Greg Evans
Claire Syrett
Chris Pryor

N.B. George Poling’s resignation from the council was effective the first day of survey interviewing.