Archive for the ‘Eugene and Lane County’ Category.

Familiarity Levels of Eugene Elected Officials

Eugene’s city councilors line up in their usual order, generally correlated with years of experience and amount of new coverage.

What is most unusual is that Mayor Lucy Vinis is still in the middle of the pack rather than far ahead of the council.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each.
RANDOMIZE ORDER
1. Emily Semple
2. Betty Taylor
3. Alan Zelenka
4. Jennifer Yeh
5. Mike Clark
6. Greg Evans
7. Claire Syrett
8. Chris Pryor
9. Lucy Vinis
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Thanksgiving Weekend of Eugene Politics

This blog will be posting polling results from September on Eugene politics this weekend starting later this morning.

Eugene Measure 20-275 Tracking: Forecast Results

The predicted support for measure 20-275 steadily increased. The final vote was in line with the landslides accorded previous streets measures.
QUESTION: Would you vote yes or no on Measure 20-275: Shall City of Eugene fix streets and fund bicycle and pedestrian projects using $51.2 million in general obligation bonds? If the bonds are approved, they will be payable from taxes on property or property ownership that are not subject to the limits of the Oregon Constitution.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: Tracking surveys consisting of 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene Special Election voters were conducted each of October 18-19 and October 30-31, 2017. The margin of error for each survey was plus or minus 7%.
SOURCE OF DATA: Lane County Elections: November 7, 2017 election results.

Eugene Measure 20-275 Tracking

Support for the streets measure (20-275) steadily increased over time. The city voters’ pamphlet arrived just after the first survey. In addition, the measure was widely endorsed. Positive information about the measure steadily increased. In addition, there was no opposition campaign.
The measure began as a toss up at 51%. Previous streets measures have passed by wide margins and started well ahead. That the city’s information was critical implies there was an initial lack of trust of the city. The low initial standing of measure 20-274, which was just a housekeeping measure, provides some confirmation of the low standing of city government.
QUESTION: Would you vote yes or no on Measure 20-275: Shall City of Eugene fix streets and fund bicycle and pedestrian projects using $51.2 million in general obligation bonds? If the bonds are approved, they will be payable from taxes on property or property ownership that are not subject to the limits of the Oregon Constitution.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: Tracking surveys consisting of 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene Special Election voters were conducted each of October 18-19 and October 30-31, 2017. The margin of error for each survey was plus or minus 7%.
SOURCE OF DATA: Lane County Elections: November 7, 2017 election results.

Eugene Measure 20-274 Tracking: Forecast Results

Predicted support for the measure quickly rose to its final level. The arrival of the city voters’ pamphlet and widespread endorsements certainly helped.
QUESTION: Would you vote yes or no on Measure 20-274: Shall the City of Eugene Charter be amended to eliminate an election in the fourth year of a vacated Mayor’s or Councilor’s term?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: Tracking surveys consisting of 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene Special Election voters were conducted each of October 18-19 and October 30-31, 2017. The margin of error for each survey was plus or minus 7%.
SOURCE OF DATA: Lane County Elections: November 7, 2017 election results.

Eugene Measure 20-274 Tracking

Measure 20-274, a city election housekeeping measure passed by a wide margin. Historically, the final percentage is well in line with other housekeeping measure. The initial support level, however, was very low. Voters became informed of the measure over time and this led to its landslide win.
QUESTION: Would you vote yes or no on Measure 20-274: Shall the City of Eugene Charter be amended to eliminate an election in the fourth year of a vacated Mayor’s or Councilor’s term?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: Tracking surveys consisting of 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene Special Election voters were conducted each of October 18-19 and October 30-31, 2017. The margin of error for each survey was plus or minus 7%.
SOURCE OF DATA: Lane County Elections: November 7, 2017 election results.

Eugene November Special Posts

During the next few weeks we’ll be posting analyses of this past November 7 Eugene Special Election.

Piercy and Vinis Performance Compared by Eugene Ward

Kitty Piercy in 2012 uniformly outperformed Lucy Vinis in 2016. However, the difference was significantly less in the west Eugene wards (6, 7, and 8).

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Clark for Mayor Campaign Financial Timeline

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Clark’s fundraising and spending were nearly all concentrated near the May election date.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

Vinis for Mayor Campaign Financial Timeline

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Vinis’ fundraising and spending were spread out comparatively evenly from July of 2015 through the May Primary.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.