Archive for the ‘Eugene and Lane County’ Category.

May Special Turnout by Lane Co. Comm. District

The turnout in the West Lane district was significantly higher than in any other district. Springfield, as usual, has the lowest turnout due to its demographic profile.

Source of data: Lane County Elections

May Special Election Turnout by City

As noted earlier the turnout for this election was low. This blog will present a series of posts exploring this topic; along with looking at the election results by region once the precinct returns are out.

As is typical, Springfield had the lowest turnout. This is what one would expect based on the demographics. An interesting hint, however, comes from the slightly higher turnout among rural voters than Eugene voters.

Source of data: Lane County Elections

Vinis’s Name Familiarity Stays Level

Despite being mayor-elect for nearly a year, Mayor Lucy Vinis’ name familiarity has barely budged since the campaign ended.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each: Lucy Vinis?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of September 13-15, 2016, December 2-3, 2016, and April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Lane County Ballot Return Pattern

As is common in special elections, ballot come in steadily with a definite spike on the final two days.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Countywide Turnout Recent Lane County Special Elections

One interesting pattern is the dropping number of voters in May Special Elections. Both an expanding overall population and more expansive voter registration laws would seem imply the number of voters should be going up not down.

Historically, more voters, about double, turn out in local special elections when money measures are on the ballot.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Results of Recent Lane County Measures Compared

The Jail Levy renewal campaign won with an astounding 73%.  Recent county campaigns have been all over the map. The renewal campaign more than doubled the vehicle registration fee percentage. There is a clear difference in voters’ minds between the jail levy and the vehicle registration fee – not all Lane County money measures are created equal.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Series on 2017 Special Election Begins

This blog will start tomorrow to post analysis of the 2017 May Special Election. The primary focus will be on countywide results and the recent jail levy, but other topics will be covered.

Posts will continue regularly on Mondays. Occasionally, posts will be made on weekends.

Downtown Eugene Summary Opinion

As a way of digging deeper into Eugene’s downtown rating, this question focuses on the transient population. The greatest change in the past two years has been the increase among those most negative (Bradshaw respondents).

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read statements from three fictitious people to you about the transient population in downtown Eugene and ask which one comes closest to your view: ROTATE ORDER
[The transient population in downtown Eugene]
Bradshaw:  ___  makes me feel much less safe and less likely to go to businesses there.
Philips: ___  makes me feel somewhat less safe and less likely to go to businesses there.
Andrews: ___  does not make me feel less safe and has no effect on whether I would go to businesses there.
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 1-2, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, and April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Downtown Eugene Business Rating Trend Downward

The “good” percentage has been generally decreasing and the “poor” and “fair” percentages have been generally increasing. The trend is clear: the perception of Downtown Eugene’s business environment is gradually declining.

QUESTION: How would you rate the business environment in downtown Eugene: excellent, good, fair, poor?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 1-2, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, and April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Downtown Eugene Crime is a Big Problem

Crime has become a dominant problem. The increase in “poor” ratings parallels a decrease in “Don’t Know” ratings which implies that the drop is partly due to the word getting out.

QUESTION: How would you rate the business environment in downtown Eugene: excellent, good, fair, poor?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 1-2, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, and April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.