Archive for the ‘Eugene and Lane County’ Category.

Beginning Downtown Eugene Study Series Tomorrow

Starting tomorrow this blog will begin a weekly series on Tuesdays presenting polling results on Eugene’s Downtown. The data include results from June of 2015 through September of 2017.

Partisan Swing for Major Lane County Non-Partisan Contests: 2008-2016

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Pro-business candidates in Lane County have achieved significant partisan swings. However, they range widely – from a high of 48% to a low of 3%.

Source: Lane County Elections.

Method: The partisan swing equals the winning margin minus the difference between the Republican and the Democratic registration margins. A swing of zero means that the winning percentage exactly followed the partisan registration percentage. A positive swing means that the pro-business candidate won a greater percentage than the partisan registration would imply.

Series Analyzing Lane County Politics

Starting tomorrow and continuing on Thursdays will be a series of posts analyzing the history of Lane County politics and looking ahead to the three commissioner election

s later this year.

Eugene Mayor Vinis’ Job Performance Rating Rises Slightly

Mayor Vinis’ rating has improved since April, but it still is under 50%.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job Eugene Mayor Lucy Vinis is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of April 10-11, 2017, and September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Eugene City Council Job Performance Improves

The job performance rating of the Eugene City Council improved significantly this year, though is still far underwater and is only at the levels last seen in 2015.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job the Eugene City Council is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of February 16-18, 2015, June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 2-3, 2015, February 22-23, 2016, September 13-15, 2016, November 29-December 1, 2016, April 10-11, 2017, and September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

LTD Board Job Performance Stays Level

The job performance rating of the Lane Transit District Board has stayed level this year.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job the Lane Transit District Board of Directors is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of February 16-18, 2015, June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 2-3, 2015, February 22-23, 2016, September 13-15, 2016, November 29-December 1, 2016, April 10-11, 2017, and September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

EWEB Board Job Performance Still 50/50

The EWEB Board’s rating continues to hover around 50 approve and 50 disapprove, but this is a clear recovery from the low ratings of 2015.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job the Eugene Water and Electric Board of Directors is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of February 16-18, 2015, June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 2-3, 2015, February 22-23, 2016, September 13-15, 2016, November 29-December 1, 2016, April 10-11, 2017, and September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

2016 Primary Vote Switching in North Eugene

Often Eugene elections are seen as contests between Pro-Business and Progressive candidates. This implies the two sides can be analyzed as if they were two political parties.

Estimates were independently prepared based on polling and precinct data. Both approaches indicate that 30 percent of Lucy Vinis’ (Progressive) vote in the North Eugene County Commissioner District had just voted for Pat Farr (Pro-Business).

This direction of vote switching is even more dramatic when one considers that the North Eugene district is more pro-business than the city as a whole. Mike Clark should have been running to the left, not right, of Pat Farr.

The level of vote switching observed here provides at least a partial explanation of the Vinis landslide.

SOURCES OF DATA: Lane County Elections for precinct returns; Lindholm Research for Farr campaign tracking polls.

Lane Board of Commissioners Job Performance

The job performance rating of the Lane Board of Commissioners has steadily risen in Eugene during 2017 and is now at its highest point in years.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job the Lane County Board of Commissioners is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of February 16-18, 2015, June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 2-3, 2015, February 22-23, 2016, September 13-15, 2016, November 29-December 1, 2016, April 10-11, 2017, and September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Comparison of Clark 2016 Results and Piercy 2012 Opponents’ Results by Ward

Mike Clark received the same percentage citywide in May 2016 as Kitty Piercy’s two challengers did in May 2012. This disguises some significant variations.

First, Clark did much better in North Eugene (wards 4 and 5) and the South Hills (Ward 2). On the other hand, Clark did worse in West Eugene (wards 6, 7 and 8). That performance gap was worst in Ward 6 (Greg Evans’ ward and Pat Farr’s former ward).

Source of data: Lane County Elections