Archive for the ‘Eugene and Lane County’ Category.

Hills West Lane Co. Comm. Name ID Tracking

Hills was not actively campaigning and it shows in the polling. No one noticed.

The ballot tracking results are at: lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=14823.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. Beverly Hills IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Beverly Hills IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely West Lane County Commission District 2018 Primary voters were conducted each of March 12-13, April 23-24, and May 7-10, 2018. The margin of error for each survey at the sample median is plus or minus 7%.

Kent West Lane Co. Comm. Name ID Tracking

Kent gained during the campaign, but not nearly enough. As seen in the Bozievich Name ID post (last one just before this), he just gained must faster.

The ballot tracking results are at: lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=14823.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. Nora Kent IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Nora Kent?IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely West Lane County Commission District 2018 Primary voters were conducted each of March 12-13, April 23-24, and May 7-10, 2018. The margin of error for each survey at the sample median is plus or minus 7%.

Bozievich West Lane Co. Comm. Name ID Tracking

Bozievich’s low net favorability at the beginning of the campaign tracks well with his initially low ballot standing. He steadily gained.

The ballot tracking results are at: lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=14823.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. Jay Bozievich IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jay Bozievich? IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely West Lane County Commission District 2018 Primary voters were conducted each of March 12-13, April 23-24, and May 7-10, 2018. The margin of error for each survey at the sample median is plus or minus 7%.

Springfield County Commissioner May 2018 Primary Tracking

The Springfield contest was very different than the West Lane contest. Sid Leiken started in a very safe position: in the mid 50s. Then, between the ballots going out and a week before the election his support collapsed. He dropped 10%, down to the mid 40s. Not only that, but the Leiken campaign kept collapsing during the final week. Normally, Leiken would be expected to get about a third of the remaining 21% undecided. He only won a tenth!
Leiken’s 2014 race was more normal (see: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=10690).
In the last post we saw that Bozievich won West Lane due to the campaign. In this post we see that Leiken lost Springfield due to the campaign.
QUESTION: If the election were held today for Lane County Commissioner, would you vote for: Joe Berney or Sid Leiken? [IF DON’T KNOW]: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely Springfield County Commission District 2018 Primary voters were conducted each of March 12-13, April 23-24, and May 7-9, 2018. The margin of error for each survey at the sample median is plus or minus 7%.

West Lane County Commissioner May 2018 Primary Tracking

The story here is Jay Bozievich’s steady climb from a very weak position to a solid victory. In 2014 he barely won – it went down to a recount. After that, everyone knew he was weak. And a county commissioner running for re-election starting with less than 30% support is pretty weak. The big shift appears to have happened early. The King campaign essentially disintegrated in the weeks just before the ballots went out. During the final three weeks of the campaign Bozievich just cruised to victory.
Bozievich won re-election because of the campaign and not because of what he’d been doing for voters the past four years.
For comparison, see the tracking on Bozievich’s 2014 race: lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=10672
QUESTION: If the election were held today for Lane County Commissioner, would you vote for: Jay Bozievich, Beverley Hills, or Nora Kent? [IF DON’T KNOW]: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely West Lane County Commission District 2018 Primary voters were conducted each of March 12-13, April 23-24, and May 7-10, 2018. The margin of error for each survey at the sample median is plus or minus 7%.

Elected Auditor Voting Advantage Over Appointed Auditor by Ward and Region

This chart shows how much better the elected auditor measure did by ward than the appointed auditor measure.

As one would expect based on the geographic distribution of voting for the appointed and elected auditors there is not much variation. However, the least variation was in north Eugene. The greatest variation was in Ward 1 – in the area of the city where many of the leaders behind the elected auditor measure reside.

Source of data: Lane County Election
Definitions:
South Eugene: Wards 1, 2, and 3;
North Eugene: Wards 4 and 5;
West Eugene: Wards 6, 7, and 8.
Map of City of Eugene wards:
https://www.eugene-or.gov/532/Find-Your-Ward

Appointed Auditor Voting by Ward and Region

Compared to the parks measures, there is virtually no variation by ward. The appointed auditor measure placed on the ballot by the city council lost overwhelmingly everywhere.

This figure was left at standard XL layout just to point out that the variation among regions of the city was between 24% and 25%! This is probably the least variation by region in Eugene in decades.

Source of data: Lane County Election
Definitions:
South Eugene: Wards 1, 2, and 3;
North Eugene: Wards 4 and 5;
West Eugene: Wards 6, 7, and 8.
Map of City of Eugene wards:
https://www.eugene-or.gov/532/Find-Your-Ward

Eugene Parks Bond Voting by Ward and Region

The regional pattern is the same as the Parks Levy, only the voting by was lower in each region. South Eugene is the most favorable region of the city and Ward 6 is the least favorable.

Source of data: Lane County Election
Definitions:
South Eugene: Wards 1, 2, and 3;
North Eugene: Wards 4 and 5;
West Eugene: Wards 6, 7, and 8.
Map of City of Eugene wards:
https://www.eugene-or.gov/532/Find-Your-Ward

Eugene Parks Levy Voting by Ward and Region

The pattern is the typical pattern for City of Eugene measures. South Eugene is the most favorable region of the city and Ward 6 is the least favorable.

Source of data: Lane County Election
Definitions:
South Eugene: Wards 1, 2, and 3;
North Eugene: Wards 4 and 5;
West Eugene: Wards 6, 7, and 8.
Map of City of Eugene wards:
https://www.eugene-or.gov/532/Find-Your-Ward

Eugene Park Bond Trend

The measure started under 50% and roughly in a dead heat with no votes. After the ballots were mailed, however, it started to pull away.

QUESTION: City of Eugene Measure 20-289 Bonds to Fund Parks and Recreation Facility Projects: Shall City of Eugene fund park and recreation projects using $39.35 million in general obligation bonds? If the bonds are approved, they will be payable from taxes on property or property ownership that are not subject to the limits of sections 11 and 11b, Article XI of the Oregon Constitution.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2018 Primary voters were conducted each of April 2-3, April 16-17 and April 30-May 2, 2018. The margin of error for each survey at the sample median is plus or minus 7%.