Archive for the ‘2014’ Category.

Cumulative Turnout Percentage by Date by 2014 Primary Turnout

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Voters in the primary voted earlier and established a wide turnout advantage over those who did not vote in the primary.

The turnout difference is dramatic. Fully 96% of those who voted in the primary returned for the general versus only 58% of those who skipped the primary.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Percentage of Total Turnout by Date by 2014 Primary Turnout

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Voters in the primary voted earlier than those who had not voted in the primary.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Cumulative Turnout Percentage by Date by Vote Propensity

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Higher propensity voters in Oregon turn around that old Chicago political machine admonition about turnout: they vote earlier and they more often vote.

DEFINITION: Vote frequency measured as number of times voted in the preceding two primaries (2012 and 2014) and two generals (2010 and 2012).

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Percentage of Total Turnout by Date by Vote Propensity

 

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Higher propensity voters generally return their ballots earlier.

DEFINITION: Vote frequency measured as number of times voted in the preceding two primaries (2012 and 2014) and two generals (2010 and 2012).

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Cumulative Turnout Percentage by Date by Congressional District

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Though turnout from the five congressional districts do track one another, the 2nd Congressional District, comprised of eastern and southern Oregon and the most rural, jumps out to a short-term lead during the middle week of voting.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Percentage of Total Turnout by Date by Congressional District

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Turnout from Oregon’s five congressional districts generally track one another.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Cumulative Turnout Percentage by Date by Party

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The turnout for non-major-party voters continuously trails that for major party voters.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Percentage of Total Turnout by Date by Party

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Republican and Democratic daily turnouts closely track one another. The non-major-party voters surge at the end.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Cumulative Turnout Percentage by Date by Age

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Older voters tend to both be more likely to return their ballots and to return their ballots earlier.

Note the falloff of voters 75+ at the end.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Percentage of Total Turnout by Date by Age

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Older voters tend to return their ballots earlier.

Note the falloff of voters 75+ on election day. In polling place states, the turnout rate for voters 75+ is lower than those 65-74.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.