Archive for the ‘2016’ Category.

Clark and Vinis Expenditures Timeline

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Vinis’ expenditures started earlier than Clark’s, but he caught up and passed her in April.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

Clark and Vinis Contributions Timeline

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Vinis’ contributions started earlier than Clark’s, but he caught up and passed her in April.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

Mayoral Undervote Pct. by Precinct

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The undervote, as expected, was highest in the university precinct. However, it was relatively higher in north and west Eugene as well.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

For a more detailed map: eugene-mayor-undervote-may-2016.

Clark Vote Pct. by Precinct

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Clark did much better in north and west Eugene.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

For a more detailed map: clark-vote-pct-may-2016.

Vinis Vote Pct. by Precinct

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Vinis’ strongest area was in south-central Eugene.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

For a more detailed map: vinis-vote-pct-may-2016

Clark v. Vinis Vote Pct. Difference by Precinct

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This map has the familiar pattern of previous mayoral contests. North and west Eugene largely voted for Clark and south Eugene largely voted for Vinis.

The difference is one of degree and of inroads. North and west Eugene were not as supportive and Vinis won several north and west precincts. Compare the 2008 mayoral race: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=3482.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

For a more detailed map: vinis-v-clark-difference-may-2016

2016 Oregon General Election Series

Starting tomorrow and continuing regularly on Thursdays will be a series presenting polling and electoral analyses of Oregon’s 2016 General Election.

Lindholm Research Polling in the 2016 General

This blog is going to begin a series of posts based polling data collected during the 2016 Oregon General Election.  We will present the most prominent and interesting polling numbers first. Less prominent contests will come later – many in 2017.

We believe these analyses to be accurate. Though the headlines this year emphasize the inaccuracy of polling, our polls, just as in 2014, the firm’s polling correctly called every 2016 Oregon statewide partisan and measure contest. Although not a foolproof measure of accuracy, it is best assurance we can offer.

 

Matching Up Oregon Presidential and Gubernatorial Candidates-Update

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There is quite a bit of bunching among the candidates which implies not much ticket splitting. The Brown and Clinton voters are indistinguishable. There is some distance between Pierce and Trump, but not much.

The correspondence analysis based on the last tracking poll is at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=13315.

QUESTIONS:
If the election  for President and Vice President were held today, would you vote for Donald J Trump and Mike Pence, Republican, or Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, Democrat, or Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka , Pacific Green, Progressive, or Gary Johnson and William Weld, Libertarian?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for James Foster, Libertarian, or Kate Brown, Democrat, Working Families, or Cliff Thomason, Independent, or Aaron Donald Auer, Constitution, or Bud Pierce, Republican?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters were conducted October 17-21, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

Matching Up Oregon Gubernatorial Candidates and Measure 97 Positions-Update

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This post updates an earlier post: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=13319.

This is similar to the last – the separation between Measure 97 and the Democratic and Republican nominees is increasing, if not by a great amount, and the minor party candidates are in the middle as opposed to being at the poles.

QUESTIONS:
If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for James Foster, Libertarian, or Kate Brown, Democrat, Working Families, or Cliff Thomason, Independent, or Aaron Donald Auer, Constitution, or Bud Pierce, Republican?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 97 Increases corporate minimum tax when sales exceed $25 million; funds education, healthcare, senior services, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?

METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters were conducted October 17-21, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.