Archive for the ‘2016’ Category.

Matching Up Oregon Presidential and Gubernatorial Candidates-Update

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There is quite a bit of bunching among the candidates which implies not much ticket splitting. The Brown and Clinton voters are indistinguishable. There is some distance between Pierce and Trump, but not much.

The correspondence analysis based on the last tracking poll is at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=13315.

QUESTIONS:
If the election  for President and Vice President were held today, would you vote for Donald J Trump and Mike Pence, Republican, or Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, Democrat, or Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka , Pacific Green, Progressive, or Gary Johnson and William Weld, Libertarian?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for James Foster, Libertarian, or Kate Brown, Democrat, Working Families, or Cliff Thomason, Independent, or Aaron Donald Auer, Constitution, or Bud Pierce, Republican?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters were conducted October 17-21, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

Matching Up Oregon Gubernatorial Candidates and Measure 97 Positions-Update

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This post updates an earlier post: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=13319.

This is similar to the last – the separation between Measure 97 and the Democratic and Republican nominees is increasing, if not by a great amount, and the minor party candidates are in the middle as opposed to being at the poles.

QUESTIONS:
If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for James Foster, Libertarian, or Kate Brown, Democrat, Working Families, or Cliff Thomason, Independent, or Aaron Donald Auer, Constitution, or Bud Pierce, Republican?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 97 Increases corporate minimum tax when sales exceed $25 million; funds education, healthcare, senior services, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?

METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters were conducted October 17-21, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

Matching Up Oregon Presidential Candidates and Measure 97 Positions-Update

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This updates the earlier post http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=13317. The interesting development is the increased separation between Measure 97 and the presidential nominees. Also interesting is that the Libertarian Johnson and the Pacific Green Stein continue to be midway between yes and no on the measures rather than at polar opposites.

QUESTIONS:
If the election  for President and Vice President were held today, would you vote for Donald J Trump and Mike Pence, Republican, or Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, Democrat, or Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka , Pacific Green, Progressive, or Gary Johnson and William Weld, Libertarian?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 97 Increases corporate minimum tax when sales exceed $25 million; funds education, healthcare, senior services, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?

METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters were conducted October 17-21, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

Oregon Republican Senate Primary Trend

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Strikingly, a week out from the election no candidate had amassed much support. Neither of the leading candidates, Carpenter or Stewart, had made any significant headway. This differs from Huffman’s 2010 campaign where he steadily pulled away from the field. This provides one possible reason for the Callahan victory: the Carpenter and Stewart campaigns were just not getting any sort of message out to the voters.

QUESTION: If the Republican United States Senate Primary were held today, would you vote for: Sam Carpenter, Mark Callahan, Faye Stewart, or Dan Laschober? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: These results are based on three surveys composed of live telephone interviews of likely Oregon Democratic Primary voters. A survey of 200 was conducted April 5-6, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for this survey is 7%. Two surveys of 400 were conducted April 25-26 and May 9-10, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for these surveys is 5%.

Oregon Republican Presidential Primary Trend

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During the Republican primary, Trump was steadily gaining and Cruz was steadily losing ground. Kasich stayed about level. This fit with the national patterns at the time.

QUESTION: If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today, would you vote for: Ted Cruz, John R. Kasich, or Donald J. Trump? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: These results are based on three surveys composed of live telephone interviews of likely Oregon Democratic Primary voters. A survey of 200 was conducted April 5-6, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for this survey is 7%. Two surveys of 400 were conducted April 25-26 and May 9-10, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for these surveys is 5%.

Oregon Democratic Secretary of State Primary Trend

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Avakian established an early lead. Val Hoyle caught up rapidly toward the end. Avakian won it at the end.

QUESTION: If the Democratic Oregon Secretary of State Primary were held today, would you vote for: Richard Devlin, Brad Avakian, or Val Hoyle? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: These results are based on three surveys composed of live telephone interviews of likely Oregon Democratic Primary voters. A survey of 200 was conducted April 5-6, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for this survey is 7%. Two surveys of 400 were conducted April 25-26 and May 9-10, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for these surveys is 5%.

Vinis Name Familiarity Key Demographics

 

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As with Mike Clark, political party was the top determinant of favorability towards Vinis. As one would also expect, given that Vinis was practically unknown at the beginning of the campaign (see: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=13040), her name familiarity steadily increased among all groups with her net favorability rocketing among Democrats.

QUESTION: I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______ IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
Lucy Vinis

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely 2016 Primary voters were conducted on each of February 8-9, April 4-5, April 18-19, and May 2-3, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.These were then pooled into a single large sample of 800.

Clark Name Familiarity Key Demographics

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The primary driver of support for Mike Clark was a person’s political party. After that, Democrats split up between those from South Eugene and those from the rest of Eugene. Among South Eugene Democrats, Age was the key factor with persons 60 and under being strongly negative. Among the latter, they got to know Clark better, but didn’t much like what they learned. This group was a key part of the business coalition in past years and the loss of this group explains some of the Clark campaign’s troubles.

The Clark trend is at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=13038

QUESTION: I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______ IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
Mike Clark

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely 2016 Primary voters were conducted on each of February 8-9, April 4-5, April 18-19, and May 2-3, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.These were then pooled into a single large sample of 800.

Vinis Name Familiarity Trend

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In contrast to Mike Clark’s name familiarity trend (http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=13038), Lucy Vinis’ steadily improved. Her favorables and net favorables increased in every poll. By a couple weeks out her favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was a very healthy three-and-a-half-to-one.

QUESTION: I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______ IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
Lucy Vinis

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely 2016 Primary voters were conducted on each of February 8-9, April 4-5, April 18-19, and May 2-3, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.

Clark Name Familiarity Trend

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Mike Clark’s net favorability (favorables minus unfavorables) never broke into double digits. A typical campaign goal is two-to-one. At one point Clark was nearly one-to-one.

QUESTION: I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______ IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
Mike Clark

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely 2016 Primary voters were conducted on each of February 8-9, April 4-5, April 18-19, and May 2-3, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.