Archive for the ‘2016’ Category.

Eugene Mayoral Race Key Demographics

 

 

 

 

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The primary determinants of support in the Eugene Mayoral election polling were first party and second the date of the poll. Clark did better among Republicans and Others and Vinis did best among Democrats. Clark steadily consolidated the Republicans as Vinis did the Democrats.

QUESTION: If the Eugene mayoral election were held today, would you vote for: Mike Clark, Bob Cassidy, Stefan Strek, Lucy Vinis, or Scott Landfield [ROTATE NAMES]? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?
NOTE: Landfield not included on Feb. 8-9 survey because he had not yet announced his candidacy.

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely 2016 Primary voters were conducted on each of February 8-9, April 4-5, April 18-19, and May 2-3, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.These were then pooled into a single large sample of 800.

Eugene Mayoral Race Predictive Tracking Results

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This graphic takes the polling data and models the likely vote percentage for the two candidates. It’s typical in local races for voters to be unfamiliar with the candidates until late in the process. This method adjusts for that lack of knowledge and creates a prediction. In practice, the method is better at predicting the front runner percentage than all the others.

First, the last poll, two weeks before the election, had Vinis winning 54% and she got 53%. That implies Vinis had the race sewed up relatively early.

Next, as noted in the last post, Vinis gained in early to mid April. From that point on her lead was solid.

Finally, Clark’s paid media push at the end appears to have had no significant impact.

POLLING QUESTION: If the Eugene mayoral election were held today, would you vote for: Mike Clark, Bob Cassidy, Stefan Strek, Lucy Vinis, or Scott Landfield [ROTATE NAMES]? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?
NOTE: Landfield not included on Feb. 8-9 survey because he had not yet announced his candidacy.

POLLING METHODOLOGY: Data for surveys: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely 2016 Primary voters were conducted on each of February 8-9, April 4-5, April 18-19, and May 2-3, 2016. The margin of error for each survey was plus or minus 7%.

ELECTION DATA: Lane County Elections.

Eugene Mayoral Election Polling Trend

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Okay, now that we know the magnitude of Clark’s landslide loss, we need to examine how his level of support evolved during the campaign itself.

Mike Clark started with a solid lead based on his name ID advantage. As one would expect, Lucy Vinis closed the gap. Vinis broke through in early mid April and maintained a solid lead throughout. Clark’s ad blitz at the end of the campaign was not enough to gain, it might even have caused him to lose ground. Vinis’ break through appears to coincide with the first time both candidates’ messages were presented.

POLLING QUESTION: If the Eugene mayoral election were held today, would you vote for: Mike Clark, Bob Cassidy, Stefan Strek, Lucy Vinis, or Scott Landfield [ROTATE NAMES]? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?
NOTE: Landfield not included on Feb. 8-9 survey because he had not yet announced his candidacy.

POLLING METHODOLOGY: Data for surveys: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely 2016 Primary voters were conducted on each of February 8-9, April 4-5, April 18-19, and May 2-3, 2016. The margin of error for each survey was plus or minus 7%.

ELECTION DATA: Lane County Elections.

Perlow Tops Among Oregon DA Candidates

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Lane County District Attorney Patty Perlow received the highest percentage among all the DA candidates on Oregon’s May ballot.

Source: Oregon Secretary of State.

(I) = incumbent.

Disclaimer: Lindholm Company served as the general consultant on the Perlow campaign.

Farr Performance Improves Over 2012 Landslide Win

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Pat Farr dramatically improved his percentage over 2012 despite facing a strong opponent and a less hospitable partisan registration margin.

The district’s registration has been trending Democratic. The net Republican margin has dropped by nearly 5% since 2012.

Farr’s opponent in 2012, incumbent Rob Handy, was beset by a wide range of challenges. On the other hand, Farr’s opponent in 2016, Tony McCown, has long experience on the Lane Community College Board and has served on numerous key City of Eugene and Lane County committees. With the exception of Farr himself in 2012, McCown was easily the most experienced challenger to a Lane County Commissioner seeking re-election in the past decade.

Disclaimer: Lindholm Company supported and worked on the Pat Farr campaign.

Source: Lane County Elections. 2016 numbers are unofficial as of end of election night.

Some History of the Eugene Mayoral Race

Today’s the day the votes are due and the results start coming in for Eugene’s mayoral race. History can provide a guide and context to the results.

One observation is that experience has mattered. City councilors have an overwhelming advantage when running for mayor. Of the eleven open elections for mayor, city councilors have won eight, or 73%. Combining the incumbency and city councilor advantages, fully 15 out of 18 races, or 83%, have been won by a city councilor or mayor since 1944. Along with this, no incumbent mayor has lost a bid for re-election since Eugene had the council-manager form of government was established in May 1944. Piercy’s 2008 run was by far the closest to losing.

Another observation is that, during the past quarter century the results have seen a wide spread. The 2000 and 2012 contests, where an incumbent faced no significant opposition were landslides. Among the other four contests where there were at least two major competitors, three (1992, 2004, and 2008) were close and one (1996: Torrey v. Weaver) a landslide. This implies a landslide is possible, though unlikely.

Looking at the two major candidates for mayor, Mike Clark and Lucy Vinis, we can see what history implies. Clark is an incumbent city councilor. Vinis, on the other hand, should she win, would be the only mayor with neither significant experience with the city (nothing elected or appointed) nor high-level political experience (Piercy was a former House Minority Leader). This would imply that, based on history, Clark possesses an advantage. On the other hand, the rarity of landslides implies that this will be a close race.

Our polling has shown that the race has tightened, as we predicted and fully expected (as probably everyone did), since our last public poll in February: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=12719

Remember that anything can happen.

Current Eugene Mayoral Fundraising

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Here is a fundraising update on the mayoral campaign.

Clark went a long way toward closing the fundraising gap last wee. Counting Clark’s in-kinds and Vinis’ loans then Clark is actually ahead in total contributions. Clark is also closing the gap on cash spent though Vinis still has significantly more cash on hand. As a reminder, Vinis spent a large amount in 2015.

These are based on ORESTAR summary reports as of 10:15 am May 2, 2016.

Republican Primary Secretary of State Fundraising To Date

image006 In the Republican Primary for Secretary of State, Dennis Richardson has a huge fundraising edge over Sid Leiken. This edge is magnified by the more than 95% burn rate of the Leiken campaign compared to the under 10% Richardson burn rate. The result is that Richardson’s reported cash on hand is nearly 50X what Leiken has.

METHODOLOGY: Funds raised equal the total raised during 2015 and 2016. Data from ORESTAR collected afternoon of March 12, 2016.

Democratic Primary Secretary of State Current Cash

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In the Democratic Primary for Secretary of State, Richard Devlin leads with Brad Avakian second, and Val Hoyle trailing. Listing the cash raised would have been misleading because Hoyle’s legislative leadership artificially magnifies her funds raised and, consequently, here implicit burn rate. This role also has hampered her fundraising.

METHODOLOGY: The cash is from data on ORESTAR collected afternoon of March 12, 2016.

Oregon 2016 Major Gubernatorial Candidates: Funds Raised and Remaining

In the race for Governor incumbent Kate Brown has a massive edge. Pierce’s fundraising has crossed the million dollar mark. Alley’s campaign, basically a week old when these data were collected, has been making rapid progress..

METHODOLOGY: Funds raised equal the total raised during 2015 and 2016. Data from ORESTAR collected afternoon of March 12, 2016.