Archive for the ‘Topic’ Category.

Downtown Eugene Crime Rating by Geography

 On the issue of crime downtown, there is much less of a geographic gap than with either visiting frequency or overall rating.
QUESTION: How would you rate the crime problem in downtown Eugene: excellent, good, fair, poor?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, December 2-3, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, April 10-11, 2017, and September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each individual survey is 7%. Overall the margin of error is 3%.

Downtown Eugene Overall Rating by Geography

Just as south Eugeneans are more likely to visit downtown, they are more likely to approve. However, every single ward, on net, disapproves of the status of downtown.
QUESTION: How would you rate Downtown Eugene: excellent, good, fair, poor?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, December 2-3, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, April 10-11, 2017, and September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each individual survey is 7%. Overall the margin of error is 3%.

Downtown Eugene Visit Frequency by Geography

To the surprise of few, persons from South Eugene (Wards 1, 2, and 3) are the most frequent visitors to downtown. What is probably more interesting is the sharp distinction, not between the near-downtown Ward 1 and the rest of South Eugene, but between the entirety of South Eugene and the entirely of the rest of Eugene.
QUESTION: How often do you go to downtown Eugene: daily, weekly, monthly, rarely, never?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, December 2-3, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, April 10-11, 2017, and September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each individual survey is 7%. Overall the margin of error is 3%.

Lindholm Research Survey Accuracy Continues

If you’ll allow us to point out the obvious (too those following this blog) … After perfect records in the 2014 and 2016 Oregon General elections, we continue by getting Measure 101 right.

Democratic Motivation Advantage by Presidential Primary Election

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This graphic shows the Democratic turnout bump by recent presidential elections. It provides some indication of how the environment was. This takes a statewide measure to minimize the impact of local turnout bumps.

To no one’s surprise, 2008 was a very good Democratic year. Next comes 2016. The 2004 was what used to be considered a very good Democratic year, until 2008 came around. The 2012 election was actually a lean Republican election and similar to those during the 20th century.

What does this mean about the Eugene races. First of all, Pat Farr increased his vote share from 60% to 65% with a turnout swing against him of 11 points – quite a feat – especially considering his opponent had a first-class resume and was scandal free. Second, though you might think this would explain Mike Clark’s landslide loss for mayor, what really comes across is, despite all the bouncing of the turnout bump size, the progressive candidates for mayor didn’t cross 55% in 2004, 2008, or 2016. Mayor Piercy had no serious opponent in 2012.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State Elections Division.

Methodology: The turnout bump equals the difference between the Oregon statewide Democratic and Republican turnout percentages.

Eugene Downtown Grows Unsafe Reputation

This question is a bit different because it asks the respondent to choose between three different combinations rather than just rating one characteristics at a time.
The overall perception of a safe Downtown Eugene continues the its slow trend downward. However, those seeing it as really dangerous continues dropping from its high in 2016.
QUESTION: Now, I am going to read statements from three fictitious people to you about the transient population in downtown Eugene and ask which one comes closest to your view: ROTATE ROTATE ORDER: READ 1 TO 3 OR READ 3 TO 1
[The transient population in downtown Eugene]
1. Bradshaw:  ___  makes me feel much less safe and less likely to go to businesses there.
2. Philips: ___  makes me feel somewhat less safe and less likely to go to businesses there.
3. Andrews: ___  does not make me feel less safe and has no effect on whether I would go to businesses there.
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 2-3, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, April 10-11, 2017, and September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Measure 101 Tracking Polls Key Demographics

Party registration was the most important predictor of how someone would vote on the measure. Paralleling the declining undecided, this analysis shows that Democrats coalesced behind the measure and Republicans coalesced in opposition.
QUESTION: If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 101: Approves temporary assessments to fund health care for low-income individuals and families, and to stabilize health insurance premiums. Temporary assessments on insurance companies, some hospitals, and other providers of insurance or health care coverage. Insurers may not increase rates on health insurance premiums by more than 1.5 percent as a result of these assessments.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon January Special Election voters were conducted December 11-13, 2017, January 3-5, 2018, and January 15-17, 2018. The margin of error at the sample median for each of the surveys is 5%. Sampling was based on voter lists and used quotas to create a representative sample. The panel includes 1200 interviews with a margin of error at the sample median of 3%.

Measure 101 Tracking

Measure 101 kept a significant lead throughout the campaign. Voters had little information at the start of the campaign (a  whopping 28% undecided). The share opposing steadily increased. The last minute push by the “Yes” campaign had an impact.
QUESTION: If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 101: Approves temporary assessments to fund health care for low-income individuals and families, and to stabilize health insurance premiums. Temporary assessments on insurance companies, some hospitals, and other providers of insurance or health care coverage. Insurers may not increase rates on health insurance premiums by more than 1.5 percent as a result of these assessments.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon January Special Election voters were conducted December 11-13, 2017, January 3-5, 2018, and January 15-17, 2018. The margin of error at the sample median for each of the surveys is 5%. Sampling was based on voter lists and used quotas to create a representative sample. The panel includes 1200 interviews with a margin of error at the sample median of 3%.

Partisan swing by Selected Lane and Clackamas Local Election Results

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Republicans and business candidates are able to achieve a much greater partisan swing in Lane County than in Clackamas County.

Sources: Lane County Elections; Clackamas County Elections.

Method: The partisan swing equals the winning margin minus the difference between the Republican and the Democratic registration margins. A swing of zero means that the winning percentage exactly followed the partisan registration percentage. A positive swing means that the pro-business candidate won a greater percentage than the partisan registration would imply.

Eugene Downtown’s Business Environment Rating Stays Roughly Level

The perception of Downtown Eugene’s business environment, in contrast to crime, did not decline. However, having the “Good,” “Poor,” and “Don’t know” all increase means there is no clear pattern.
QUESTION: How would you rate the business environment in downtown Eugene: excellent, good, fair, poor?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 2-3, 2015, September 13-15, 2016, April 10-11, 2017, and September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.