Archive for the ‘Topic’ Category.

Lane Board of Commissioners Job Performance

The job performance rating of the Lane Board of Commissioners has steadily risen in Eugene during 2017 and is now at its highest point in years.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job the Lane County Board of Commissioners is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of February 16-18, 2015, June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 2-3, 2015, February 22-23, 2016, September 13-15, 2016, November 29-December 1, 2016, April 10-11, 2017, and September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Comparison of Clark 2016 Results and Piercy 2012 Opponents’ Results by Ward

Mike Clark received the same percentage citywide in May 2016 as Kitty Piercy’s two challengers did in May 2012. This disguises some significant variations.

First, Clark did much better in North Eugene (wards 4 and 5) and the South Hills (Ward 2). On the other hand, Clark did worse in West Eugene (wards 6, 7 and 8). That performance gap was worst in Ward 6 (Greg Evans’ ward and Pat Farr’s former ward).

Source of data: Lane County Elections

Eugene Independent Performance Auditor Maintains Solid Support

The elected auditor is supported by a wide margin. However, voter opinions on non-money measures typically are less firm than on money measures. The dramatic movement of the housekeeping charter amendment at the recently completed election is proof of that (http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=14379). At 60% it’s level of support is not quite enough to be guaranteed victory against a concerted opposition campaign. Supporters would like to have around 70%.

QUESTION: Would you vote yes or no on: Shall the City of Eugene Charter be amended to establish office of elected City Auditor to independently audit city operations and activities?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2018 General Election voters conducted September 11-12, 2017. Margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus 7%.

Relationship Between Voting on Measures 20-274 and 20-275 by Ward

 

This analysis presupposes a linear relationship between the votes for 20-274 and 20-275. What is interesting is that the three southern wards are above the line, indicating disproportionate support for the streets bond measure, and the five northern and western wards are below the line, indicating disproportionate opposition for that same measure.

Once again, voting returns show the gap between the three South Eugene wards, where Mayor Vinis and former Mayor Piercy ran best, and the rest of Eugene.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Overall Vote Compared – 2012 and 2016 Eugene Mayoral Elections

This graphic compares the vote percentages for mayor in 2012 and 2016. It assigns the percentages into three categories. The assumptions are 1. that the minor candidates in 2016 were winning votes from the left and 2. that the two Piercy challengers in 2012 were from the right.

This leaves us with the interesting result that Clark received the same percentage as Piercy’s two challengers in 2012 – thus replicating a minimum in support for a pro-business agenda.

Source of data: Lane County Elections

Yes Percentage Eugene Measure 20-275 (Streets Measure) by Ward

Though the streets measure won by a solid margin, it only won seven of eight wards. It actually lost Ward 6 (Bethel-Danebo/Northwest Eugene) by landslide proportions.

Paralleling the charter revision, the highest support came from the three southern wards (1, 2, and 3). Next came the two northern wards (4 and 5). The western wards had the least support (6, 7, and 8).

This pattern parallels other money measures.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Vinis Favorables Rating Trend

First, it’s clear that those who know who Eugene Mayor Lucy Vinis is generally like her. She’s had no bad press.

Second, as previous posts have indicated that’s faint praise because so few know her.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Lucy Vinis IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Yes Percentage Eugene Measure 20-274 by Ward

The highest support came from the three southern wards (1, 2, and 3). Next came the two northern wards (4 and 5). The western wards had the least support (6, 7, and 8).

This pattern parallels other measures of the trust in Eugene’s government.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Familiarity Trends of Prominent Eugene Leaders

This graph shows the Name ID levels of four prominent Eugene leaders. Notice that Pat Farr and Peter Sorenson compose the upper pair and closely track each other. The lower pair, Mike Clark and Lucy Vinis, also closely track in other. Essentially, Vinis is familiar to Eugeneans as would be a well-known city councilor.

What we should see is the green line rocketing upward in April and being off the chart, literally, in September.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each.
RANDOMIZE ORDER
1. Mike Clark
2. Peter Sorenson
3. Lucy Vinis
4. Pat Farr

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of September 13-15, 2016, December 2-3, 2016, April 10-11, 2017, and September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

N.B. Betty Taylor was omitted for simplicity of analysis. She did not run for mayor last year. Including her, either as an addition or instead of Mike Clark, would only further accentuate how unsuccessful Vinis’ efforts at community outreach have been.

Eugene Mayor Lucy Vinis Familiarity Trend

 

Eugene Mayor Lucy Vinis’ name identification level has remained remarkably constant over the past year. Eugeneans’ familiarity with past mayors (Torrey and Piercy) has risen dramatically during the first year of office. Based on these examples she should be somewhere around the mid 90s not the mid 50s.

Vinis’ “city-council-level-familiarity” as seen in the last post is not just some one off. Her Name ID really hasn’t taken off.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each.

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.