Archive for the ‘Time’ Category.

Percentage of Total Turnout by Date by Vote Propensity

 

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Higher propensity voters generally return their ballots earlier.

DEFINITION: Vote frequency measured as number of times voted in the preceding two primaries (2012 and 2014) and two generals (2010 and 2012).

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Cumulative Turnout Percentage by Date by Congressional District

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Though turnout from the five congressional districts do track one another, the 2nd Congressional District, comprised of eastern and southern Oregon and the most rural, jumps out to a short-term lead during the middle week of voting.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Percentage of Total Turnout by Date by Congressional District

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Turnout from Oregon’s five congressional districts generally track one another.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Cumulative Turnout Percentage by Date by Party

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The turnout for non-major-party voters continuously trails that for major party voters.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Percentage of Total Turnout by Date by Party

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Republican and Democratic daily turnouts closely track one another. The non-major-party voters surge at the end.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Cumulative Turnout Percentage by Date by Age

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Older voters tend to both be more likely to return their ballots and to return their ballots earlier.

Note the falloff of voters 75+ at the end.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Percentage of Total Turnout by Date by Age

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Older voters tend to return their ballots earlier.

Note the falloff of voters 75+ on election day. In polling place states, the turnout rate for voters 75+ is lower than those 65-74.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Cumulative Turnout Percentage by Date by Gender

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The lines track each other almost perfectly. There are few gender differences in ballot return date.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Percentage of Total Turnout by Date by Gender

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The turnout percentage by day is almost exactly the same.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

From the Archives … Eugene Mayoral Poll from May 2003

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Here’s how some potential candidates for Eugene’s 2004 Mayoral race stood in May 2003.

The sample doesn’t exactly match the one in the previous post. It is from May and a General election sample. That said, it’s clear that Miller and Piercy both had developed large citywide constituencies.

QUESTION: Now, looking at next year’s mayoral race. Some say Mayor Jim Torrey won’t run for re-election. Some people have already been mentioned as interested in running for mayor. If the election were held today, would you vote for David Kelly, Jeff Miller, Nancy Nathanson, or Kitty Piercy for Mayor ROTATE?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely general election voters were conducted the nights of May 7 and 8, 2003. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%.