Archive for the ‘Political’ Category.

Oregon 2016 Measure 98 Key Demographics

image021

The primary determinant was party. Gender and time were also important.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 98 Requires state funding for dropout-prevention, career and college readiness programs in Oregon high schools, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

These three surveys were then pooled to create The key demographics were determined using CHAID methodology.

Eugeneans Evenly Divided on Urban Growth Boundary Expansion

Eugeneans’ opinions are evenly balanced on the question of expanding the city’s urban growth boundary.

QUESTION: Do you support or oppose expanding Eugene’s urban growth boundary? IF SUPPORT/OPPOSE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%.

2017 Jail Levy Increase on 2013 by Lane Region

All areas improved over 2017. Eugene, which was already the most supportive, increased by the most.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Oregon 2016 Measure 98 Vote Trend

image016

Measure 98 was solidly ahead throughout the election.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 98 Requires state funding for dropout-prevention, career and college readiness programs in Oregon high schools, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

SOURCES: Election data from Oregon Secretary of State.

Vinis Mayoral Job Approval Rating Is Net Negative

Vinis’ job approval rating is underwater. A net negative rating like this implies she has not benefited from any honeymoon.

It’s is important to distinguish between the types of data. Mayor Vinis is relatively unknown, but those who know her like her. In the office of the mayor, on the other hand, she is underperforming.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job Eugene Mayor Lucy Vinis is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%.

May Special Ballot Return Rate by Lane Co. Comm. District

West Lane started returning ballots earlier than the other districts and just kept increasing its turnout margin.

Source of data: Lane County Elections

May Special Ballot Return Rate by Lane County Region

Rural Lane County returned ballots the fastest and returned the highest percentage.

Source of data: Lane County Elections

Oregon 2016 Measure 96 Key Demographics

image018

The primary determinant was income. Gender was also important.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 96 Amends Constitution: Dedicates 1.5% of state lottery net proceeds to funding support services for Oregon veterans, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

These three surveys were then pooled to create The key demographics were determined using CHAID methodology.

Vinis Favorability High – Among Those Who Know Her

Though Lucy Vinis is only known by a little more than half of Eugeneans, she is personally well liked by those who know of her. Her favorability ratio of about four-to-one (40/11) is very good.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each: Lucy Vinis? IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Lucy Vinis? IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of September 13-15, 2016, December 2-3, 2016, and April 10-11, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

2017 Lane Jail Levy Yes Pct. by Commissioner District

All areas supported the jail levy was extraordinarily wide margins. As one would expect, the most supportive areas were the Eugene districts. Next came Springfield and the rural districts were the least supportive.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.