Lindholm Company Blog

Commissioner Jay Bozievich’s favorability dropped during the jail levy campaign. He went from a positive sevent to a net zero rating. Essentially, the positives stayed constant and the negatives increased.

This trend provides some explanation why the jail levy went up and down. As a reminder, here is the trend:http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=9053

The shifts in the trend were clearly correlated with the PR snafus at the county.

QUESTION:
Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jay Bozievich? IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?

METHODOLOGY:
200 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely May 2013 Lane County Special Election voters on each of March 18-19, April 22-23, and May 6-7, 2013. The margin of error at the sample median was 7 percent.

County Administrator Liane Richardson’s personal net favorability started positive, but declined over time. There was a net drop of nine points.

This trend provides some explanation why the jail levy went up and down. As a reminder, here is the trend:http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=9053

The shifts in the trend were clearly correlated with the PR snafus at the county.

It is rare for an administrator to have a net negative rating. Usually their Name ID, such as that of Mike Gleason when he was Eugene City Manager in the 1990s, is very low to begin with.

QUESTION:
Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Liane Richardson? IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?

METHODOLOGY:
200 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely May 2013 Lane County Special Election voters on each of March 18-19, April 22-23, and May 6-7, 2013. The margin of error at the sample median was 7 percent.

As a recap of the job performance rating trends: None of the major components of county government was given a good initial job performance rating. None of the ratings got much better during the campaign. There was a reasonably close correlation. None of them diverged extraordinarily from the others.

Here are the links to the relevant ratings:

County Government: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=8917
Board of County Commissioners: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=8929
County Administrator: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=8932

County Administrator Liane Richardson’s job performance rating was low at the beginning of the campaign and dropped significantly during it. This was probably due to the salary and Metro snafus.

QUESTION:
How would you rate the job Lane County Administrator Liane Richardson is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY:
200 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely May 2013 Lane County Special Election voters on each of March 18-19, April 22-23, and May 6-7, 2013. The margin of error at the sample median was 7 percent.

Excellent and good responses were grouped as “Approve” and fair and poor responses were grouped as “Disapprove.” This is a common methodology.

The commissioner rating was very bad and it got worse during the campaign. The disapproval rating increased significantly. In the end, the net favorability was a minus 64 percent.

QUESTION:
How would you rate the job Lane County Board of Commissioners is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY:
200 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely May 2013 Lane County Special Election voters on each of March 18-19, April 22-23, and May 6-7, 2013. The margin of error at the sample median was 7 percent.

Excellent and good responses were grouped as “Approve” and fair and poor responses were grouped as “Disapprove.” This is a common methodology.

The job performance rating of Lane County government was very bad and it got worse during the campaign. In the end, the net favorability was a minus 64 percent.

QUESTION:
How would you rate the job Lane County Government is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY:
200 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely May 2013 Lane County Special Election voters on each of March 18-19, April 22-23, and May 6-7, 2013. The margin of error at the sample median was 7 percent.

Excellent and good responses were grouped as “Approve” and fair and poor responses were grouped as “Disapprove.” This is a common methodology.

This post shows the difference in margin between the Jail Levy and the Eugene Fee by Eugene City Council Ward. The difference was huge. It was in double digits in every ward.

The smallest differences were in the wards held by Mayor Piercy’s city council allies.

City Council Ward Map
http://www.eugene-or.gov/index.aspx?NID=532

2013 Ward Map

Source of data: Lane County Elections

The Eugene Service Fee lost in every Eugene City Council Ward. The most supportive was Ward 3 around the University and the least supportive was Ward 6 in Bethel Danebo. Though the top and bottom wards are the same, the exact order of the wards is different than with the Jail Levy.

Map
http://www.eugene-or.gov/index.aspx?NID=532

2013 Ward Map

Source of data: Lane County Elections

The Jail Levy won in every Eugene City Council Ward. The most supportive was Ward 3 around the University and the least supportive was Ward 6 in Bethel Danebo.

City Council Ward Map
http://www.eugene-or.gov/index.aspx?NID=532

2013 Ward Map

Source of data: Lane County Elections

The Jail Levy won in every county commissioner district.

The most supportive was Sorenson’s South Eugene district. The least supportive was Bozievich’s West Lane district.

County Commissioner District Maps
http://www.lanecounty.org/Departments/BCC/Pages/Districts.aspx

CommissionerDistricts_internet_Extended_2012

CommissionerDistricts_internet_Detailed_2012

Source of data: Lane County Elections