Lindholm Company Blog

As Oregon Republicans meet for the annual Dorchester conference, one key issue has to be reversing Republican losses.

One overlooked factor is candidate quality.

Here is an observation they should bear in mind: The government experience of the last four Republican nominees for governor, at the time they were nominated, is comparable to, and probably below, the government experience of the current four Republican Lane County commissioners at the time they were nominated.

The four Republican nominees for Governor had the following levels of experience:
Kevin Mannix had the most. He had been in the state legislature for a dozen years.
Ron Saxton had been a one-term Portland School Board member.
Neither Chris Dudley nor Bill Sizemore had any significant government experienced when they were nominees.

The four Republican Lane County commissioners had the following levels of experience:
Sid Leiken had been Mayor of Springfield for nearly a dozen years.
Pat Farr had one term as a state representative, a decade on the Eugene City Council, and, to top it off, had been a school board member before that. Farr gets at least a tie.
Jay Bozievich had been a one-term community college board member.
Faye Stewart had had no major elected office.

The Lane County commissioners are definitely comparable to the Republican nominees.

The point of this point is not so much to extol the virtues of the Lane County commissioners, but to point out the relative weakness of recent Republican nominees. The discussion of rebranding misses at least part of the point. The Republican gubernatorial nominees need to have done something to place on their resume or Oregonians won’t vote for them.

One has to go back at least to 1956 with Robert Holmes to find a Democratic nominee with as little experience as Mannix. One has to go back to 1948 with Lew Wallace or 1946 with Carl Donaugh to find a Democratic nominee for Governor with clearly less experience.

The question remains. Why do Republicans in heavily Democratic Lane County appear to have access to an equivalent, or better, talent pool for county commissioner than the statewide Republican Party does for governor?

Voters treated measure Measure 78 largely like Measure 77. They learned over time. Here, again, the date of the poll is the most important determinant of voter intention.

QUESTION
If the election were held today on Measure #78 Amends Constitution: Changes constitutional language describing governmental system of separation of powers; makes grammatical and spelling changes, would you vote yes or no?

METHODOLOGY
This pooled survey analysis is composed of six surveys and a total of 1400 interviews.

The tracking survey series is comprised of five statewide Oregon surveys of 200 live  telephone interviews of likely Oregon General Election voters conducted each of  September 17-18, October 1-2, October 15-16, October 22-23, and October 29-30, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent for each survey.

Quotas were established to guarantee a representative sample of likely Oregon General  Election voters.

The segmentation trees were constructed using a standard CHAID analysis.

As is common with “housekeeping” measures, the date of the tracking poll is the most important driver of support in Oregon. People learn over time.

QUESTION
If the election were held today on Measure #77 Amends Constitution: Governor may declare “catastrophic disaster” (defined); requires legislative session; authorizes suspending specified constitutional spending restrictions, would you vote yes or no?

METHODOLOGY
This pooled survey analysis is composed of six surveys and a total of 1400 interviews.

The tracking survey series is comprised of five statewide Oregon surveys of 200 live  telephone interviews of likely Oregon General Election voters conducted each of  September 17-18, October 1-2, October 15-16, October 22-23, and October 29-30, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent for each survey.

Quotas were established to guarantee a representative sample of likely Oregon General  Election voters.

The segmentation trees were constructed using a standard CHAID analysis.

As in the State Treasurer contest, there was a clear convergence in late September. This was followed by Rosenblum pulling away from Buchal. This is another example of a low-information contest since most of Rosenblum’s expenditures were in the May Primary.

It should be noted that Buchal was a write-in nominee in the Republican Primary and spent little money.

METHODOLOGY
The data come from five surveys composed of 200 live telephone interviews each conducted  September 17-18, October 1-2, October 15-16, October 22-23, and October 29-30, 2012. The margin of error on each survey is plus or minus 7 percent. Quotas were established to guarantee a representative sample of likelyOregon General Election voters.

The trend for the State Treasurer race differs from the Presidential and Secretary of State. Here there was a convergence in late September. After that, Wheeler pulled away. Here is an example of a low information contest. Wheeler, to date, had the lowest election expenditures of any of the three Democrats running statewide.

It should be noted that Cox was a write-in nominee in the Republican Primary and spent little money.

METHODOLOGY
The data come from five surveys composed of 200 live telephone interviews each conducted  September 17-18, October 1-2, October 15-16, October 22-23, and October 29-30, 2012. The margin of error on each survey is plus or minus 7 percent. Quotas were established to guarantee a representative sample of likelyOregon General Election voters.

The Secretary of State trend tracks with the Presidential trend. The two candidates converged during the first half of October. After that, the undecideds sorted themselves and Brown won by a solid margin.

METHODOLOGY
The data come from five surveys composed of 200 live telephone interviews each conducted  September 17-18, October 1-2, October 15-16, October 22-23, and October 29-30, 2012. The margin of error on each survey is plus or minus 7 percent. Quotas were established to guarantee a representative sample of likelyOregon General Election voters.

This trend analysis shows both the consistent Obama advantage throughout the campaign and the national Romney bump at the beginning of October due to the debate carried through to Oregon.

METHODOLOGY
The data come from five surveys composed of 200 live telephone interviews each conducted  September 17-18, October 1-2, October 15-16, October 22-23, and October 29-30, 2012. The margin of error on each survey is plus or minus 7 percent. Quotas were established to guarantee a representative sample of likelyOregon General Election voters.

In 2012, the only partisan statewide contests Oregonians had to vote on were the down ballot constitutional offices: Attorney General, Secretary of State, and State Treasurer.  This post will compare the 2012 fundraising levels with comparable contests in recent years.

The two 2008 races did better than Buehler did this year. This was despite the fact that the 2008 election was the best Democratic wave among the three years.

The expenditure totals are as of November 16, 2012.

These results fit the pattern. The two 2008 races were for open seats. Dancer placed ahead of Alley because he is from Eugene.

This corresponding vote percentages are at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=8548

In 2012, the only partisan statewide contests Oregonians had to vote on were the down ballot constitutional offices: Attorney General, Secretary of State, and State Treasurer.  This post will compare the 2012 results with comparable contests in recent years.

The red line is for the Republican percentage. The blue line is the Democratic percentage. This is the two-party vote. Third parties votes are not counted in order to make the results more easily comparable.

What’s most interesting is that the best result for Republicans was Rick Dancer running for Secretary of State in 2008. This was despite the fact that the 2008 election was the best Democratic wave among the three years.

This result fits with the traditional Eugene Republican advantage: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=8505

Another related point is that Dancer did relatively poorly in the Portland Metro Area: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=719. He more than made up for it in Lane County: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=299

There is an interesting piece of trivia amidst all the Republican futility in statewide races.

The only Republican nominees to win statewide races the first time out, no previous statewide races and not an incumbent, in the last 35 years were Dave Frohnmayer in 1980 and Jack Roberts in 1994. Both were from Eugene and Rubicon members.

The time a last Republican from the Tri-County area (Clackamas, Multnomah, and Washington counties) won a statewide partisan race the first time out was in 1968 (Bob Packwood and Lee Johnson)!

There is actually a pretty good strategic reason why the “Berkeley of Oregon” has been so comparatively successful since the 1960s minting statewide Republican nominees. However, that’s for another post.

This post updates the earlier “Quarter Century Study.” For example, please see: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=122.

Source: Oregon Secretary of State.

Full disclosure: Rick Lindholm ran the Jack Roberts campaign in 1994.