Archive for March 2009

OREGON 4TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT REPUBLICAN PRIMARY SURVEY

The 2010 election is a long way off, but rumors abound that Congressman Peter DeFazio will run for Governor. He has not yet announced his plans. If Mr. DeFazio does run for Governor, his seat will become open for the first time in 24 years. Republicans have traditionally done better in the 4th than in Oregon as a whole.

Our firm decided to test leading 4th District Republicans, current Springfield Mayor Sid Leiken, former Labor Commissioner Jack Roberts, and former News Anchor Rick Dancer, in a hypothetical primary match. None have yet announced for the seat.

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If the election were held today, Dancer would lead with 43%, Roberts would get 10% and Leiken would get 9%. Those without an opinion stand at 38%.

It is important to remember that this survey is very early and is only a snapshot in time. No seat is yet open, no campaign has yet started, and the May 18 Primary Election Day is more than 400 days away.

A reasonable conclusion is that Dancer starts with a big lead due to name ID, but that he is far from sewing up the race since nearly 40% of likely voters are undecided.

The survey consists of 400 telephone interviews of likely 2010 Republican Primary voters conducted March 1 through 3, 2009. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. A model of the sample population was used to insure a representative sample.

Lindholm Research is not currently (as of posting) employed by any candidate for the 4th Congressional District. This survey was conducted as part of a long term research project and was completely funded by Lindholm Research.

Reports from other elements of this and other research projects will be made from time to time on the blog.

SANTA CLARA COUNTY POLLING HISTORIC ATTITUDES ABOUT THE 49ERS MOVING

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Question: Do you approve or disapprove of the 49ers football team moving from the City of San Francisco to the City of Santa Clara?

The most important trend is the “Approve” line which as remained relatively constant. The next most important trend is the steady shift of undecided voters into the “Disapprove” category.

The survey consisted of 400 telephone interviews of likely November 2008 Santa Clara County General Election voters. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. A model of the sample population was used to insure a representative sample.

OREGON DEMOCRATIC REGISTRATION ADVANTAGE AND NET REPUBLICAN STATE HOUSE SEATS, 1964-2008

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The blue line is the Democratic registration advantage among voters since 1964.

The red line is the net Republican advantage in House seats since 1964.

Generally, the lines move in opposite directions. This implies Republican fortunes are driven, in large part, by the party registration of those voting.

Note the improvement in Republican registration during the past couple of decades has not been matched by an improving Republican position in the House.

Sources of data: Oregon Secretary of State. Edwards, Cecil L., ed., Chronological List of Oregon’s Legislatures, State of Oregon Legislative Administrative Committee, Salem Oregon, 1993. The Oregon Blue Book was used for subsequent years.

OREGON DEMOCRATIC ADVANTAGE AND INDEPENDENT PERCENTAGE, 1964-2008

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The blue line is the Democratic registration advantage among voters since 1964 (= % of actual voters who are Democrats minus % of actual voters who are Republicans).

The green line is the Independent percentage of actual voters.

Note two trends:

The Independent percentage, as a share of voters, has generally increased since 1970.
The Democratic advantage generally decreased until 2006.

Note two observations:

2002 was the best Republican turnout year since 1964.
The Democrats enjoyed a sharp spike among voters in 2008.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

OREGON DEMOCRATIC ADVANTAGE AND INDEPENDENT PERCENTAGE, 1964-2008