Archive for June 2009

Partisanship Became an Increasingly Strong Factor in House Contests from 2002 to 2008

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This post will look at the model from the last post in more detail.

The error rate of predicting House District contests declined from 2002 through 2008. This implies that partisanship made more and more of a difference to voters over time.

As partisanship became more important, Republicans held fewer and fewer House seats.

The analysis was performed using a logistic regression of partisan registration difference as the independent variable and winner of the contest as the dependent variable for all Oregon House District contests from 2002 through 2008.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

Partisan Registration as a Predictor of Oregon House District Result, 2002 through 2008

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The partisan registration difference alone can accurately predict 91% of the House contests from 2002 through 2008.

On its surface, this is not that interesting. Put it another way, and it really stands out: campaign quality differences, campaign expenditures differences, and candidate incumbency factors, etc., among other facts, are only needed to explain 9% of the outcomes.

This model holds during the great Republican year of 2002 and the “bad” Republican years of 2006 and 2008.

The analysis was performed using a logistic regression of partisan registration difference as the independent variable and winner of the contest as the dependent variable for all Oregon House District contests from 2002 through 2008.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

Familiarity with A’s and 49er’s Moving to Silicon Valley

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The plann to move the 49er’s is significantly more familiar than the plan to move the A’s. This is only natural because the plan has been on the table for much longer.

 

How familiar are you with ______________________ Is that very familiar, somewhat familiar, somewhat unfamiliar or very unfamiliar? ROTATE

a. Moving the A’s baseball team to San Jose

b. Moving the 49er’s football team to Santa Clara

 

The survey consisted of 400 telephone interviews of 2010 likely Santa Clara Count y Primary voters conducted June 16-18, 2009. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.

Nguyen Recall Election: Gender Distribution of Voters

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About half of the voters in the election were men and about half of the voters were women.

These figures are based on estimates using the sources indicated below.

Sources of data: Santa Clara County Registrar of Voters; Labels and Lists of Bellevue Washington.

Oregon House Districts: Comparing the 2002-2008 Registration Change with the 2002 Registration Difference

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In general, the Democratic districts became more Democratic and the Republican districts became more Republican. The partisan geographic split in Oregon has increased since 2002.

There is a positive correlation of 0.59 which is statistically significant (>99% confidence the correlation is significantly greater than zero).

2002 Registration Difference: Republican registration percentage minus Democratic registration percentage.

Registration Change 2002 to 2008: 2008 Registration Difference minus 2002 Registration Difference.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State

Oregon Net Republican State House Seats: Actual vs. Expected Due to Registration, 1964-2008

The net equals the number of house seats held by Republicans minus the number of house seats held by Democrats.

Generally, Republicans have consistently underperformed starting with the 2002 election.

This graphic was constructed using the output of a regression of the Republican margin in House seats on the Republican margin in statewide registration. The expected number of House seats for each election year was calculated by plugging the statewide registration margin into the equation.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

Nguyen Recall Election: Non-Latino/Non-Vietnamese Voter Share by Precinct

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Non-Latino/Non-Vietnamese voters were most numerous on the outskirts of the district. There is a general correlation between Non-Latino/Non-Vietnamese voters and recall opposition.

The votes by precinct are at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=713.

This map is based on estimates using the sources indicated below.

Sources of data: Santa Clara County Registrar of Voters; Labels and Lists of Bellevue Washington.

Switched House Districts since 2002 and Oregon 2008 House District Partisanship

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This graphic presents the middle 20 Oregon House Districts by partisan registration difference (Democratic percentage minus Republican percentage).

Red districts are held by Republicans in 2008. Blue districts were held by Democrats from 2002 through 2008. Green districts switched from Republican to Democrat after the 2002 election.

No district outside the current middle 20 switched sides during the period.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State

Oregon House District Partisan Registration Change 2002 to 2008: Willamette Valley

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The greatest movements towards Democrats in the Willamette Valley happened, generally, in the most Democratic areas: Corvallis, Eugene, and Portland.

The Portland suburbs and Salem experienced the next largest shifts towards Democrats.

This map shows the relative changes in net partisan registration by Oregon House District between 2002 and 2008.

The House District boundaries were redrawn in 2001 and have not changed since.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

Nguyen Recall Election: Latino Voter Share by Precinct

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Latino voters were most numerous on the outskirts of the district. There is a general correlation between Latino voters and recall opponents.

The votes by precinct are at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=713.

This map is based on estimates using the sources indicated below.

Sources of data: Santa Clara County Registrar of Voters; Labels and Lists of Bellevue Washington.