Archive for December 2009

Ethnic Chinese Vote Propensity by Age California Statewide

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Ethnic Chinese are a relatively recent immigrant population.Compared to the California average the registration rates among the young are much higher. This is probably a combination of a relatively higher civic involvement among the young and relatively higher birth rates than the average population. As is true with many immigrant groups, the young are relatively more integrated with American civic culture than the old. A comparison with the full age pyramid, including both voters and non voters,would provide a bit more precision to this view.

The spike among the youngest voters is the “Obama” spike. Younger voters registering  just to participate in the 2008 General Election.

 The vote propensity is the number of elections voted in, zero through four, out of the past four primaries and generals (June and November of 2006 and June and November of 2008).

The graph has five lines, one each representing the percentage of total registered voters by each year of age for each of the five vote propensity levels.

Voter ethnicity was identified based on surname and personal name. This is considered the best available method, though it is likely to miss some members of the ethnic group and include some who are not members.

Source of raw data: Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

Measure 66 Key Demographics Analysis

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There are three key segments among voters on Measure 66:
1.Republicans and Other Registrants who oppose the tax by nearly two to one (Yes 27% to No 49%).
2.Democrats without college education, who slightly oppose the tax (Yes 31% to No 36%). This demographic segment reminds one of the Clinton Democrats in the 2008 Primary.
3.Democrat with at least some college, who strongly support the tax (Yes 65% to No 13%). This demographic segment reminds one of the Obama Democrats in the 2008 Primary.

Measure 66 Ballot Question Wording:
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 66: Raises tax on household income at and above $250,000 (and $125,000 for individual filers). Reduces income taxes on unemployment benefits in 2009. Provides funds currently budgeted for education, health care, public safety, other services.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

Survey Methodology:
400 live telephone interviews of likely January Oregon Special election voters were conducted November 30 through December 2, 2009. The margin of error at the sample median is 5 percent (with 95 percent confidence).

CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) was used to construct the graphic.

This survey was conducted as part of a long-term project studying Oregon politics and not for any political committee. As of the time this survey was conducted, Lindholm Research was not working for either the Yes or No sides.

Measure 66 and 67 Survey Top Line Results

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This survey was designed to catch the Measure 66 and 67 campaigns when they started. The idea is to get a set of baseline numbers for future surveys.

The timing worked out well. The campaign advertising just started this week. The survey was conducted on Monday through Wednesday, just as the advertising started.

At the start of the campaign, Measure 66 is ahead by only 4% and the yes vote percentage hovers around 40%. Measure 67 is ahead by 13% and the yes vote percentage is under 50%. Neither measure is doing particularly well.

The electorate does not yet appear focused on the election. The undecided percentage is greater than 20% on both measures.

Increasing turnout improves the chances of passage for both Measure 66 and Measure 67. Looking at only the most highly motivated voters, support for both 66 and 67 drops. Measure 66 would move from leading to trailing 38% Yes to 41% No. Measure 67’s lead would diminish to a slender 43% Yes to 38% No.
 

Measure 66 Ballot Question Wording:
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 66: Raises tax on household income at and above $250,000 (and $125,000 for individual filers). Reduces income taxes on unemployment benefits in 2009. Provides funds currently budgeted for education, health care, public safety, other services.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

Measure 67 Ballot Question Wording:
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 67: Raises $10 Corporate Minimum Tax, Business Minimum Tax, Corporate Profits Tax. Provides funds currently budgeted for education, health care, public safety, other services.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

Survey Methodology:
400 live telephone interviews of likely January Oregon Special election voters were conducted November 30 through December 2, 2009. The margin of error at the sample median is 5 percent (with 95 percent confidence).

This survey was conducted as part of a long-term project studying Oregon politics and not for any political committee.
As of the time this survey was conducted, Lindholm Research was not working for either the Yes or No sides.

Ethnic Vietnamese Vote Propensity by Age California Statewide

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This is the first post in a series looking at vote propensity among California’s ethnic groups.

Ethnic Vietnamese are a relatively recent immigrant population. Compared to the California average the registration rates among the young are much higher. This is probably a combination of a relatively higher civic involvement among the young and relatively higher birth rates than the average population. As is true with many immigrant groups, the young are relatively more integrated with American civic culture than the old. A comparison with the full age pyramid, including both voters and non voters,would provide a bit more precision to this view.

The spike among the youngest voters is the “Obama” spike. Younger voters registering  just to participate in the 2008 General Election.

An interesting demographic feature is the “valley” between ages 28 and 33. Birth rates tend to decline during difficult times and the higher age corresponds to the fall of South Vietnam.

The vote propensity is the number of elections voted in, zero through four, out of the past four primaries and generals (June and November of 2006 and June and November of 2008).

The graph has five lines, one each representing the percentage of total registered voters by each year of age for each of the five vote propensity levels.

Voter ethnicity was identified based on surname and personal name. This is considered the best available method, though it is likely to miss some members of the ethnic group and include some who are not members.

Source of data: Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.