Archive for March 2010

A’s Move Approval: City of San Jose Key Demographics

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In the expectation of a money issue coming, the demographics align in the expected way. Democrats most approve and Republicans and non-major-party voters least approve.

Given Mayor Reed’s strong support of the A’s moving to San Jose and his natural base of electoral support, it will be interesting to see if the Republicans and independents will be brought along once the plan is more fleshed out.

Question:
Do you approve or disapprove of moving the A’s baseball team to San Jose? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY
The surveys each consisted of 200 live telephone interviews of City of San Jose likely June 2010 Primary voters conducted June 16-18, 2009, October 26-28, 2009, and February 15-17, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median was 7 percent for each of the surveys. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.

CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) was used to construct the graphic using demographic data about the survey respondents.

2006 Oregon Democratic Gubernatorial Primary: Kulongoski Relative Vote

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Kulongoski won the Primary. Kulongoski was and is the incumbent Governor. Kulongoski was the candidate of the Democratic establishment.

The critical importance for Democrats of winning the Portland media market is evident in this map. The Portland media market covers all of Oregon except from Lane County (Eugene) south in western Oregon, the northeast corner of the state, and the southern tier of counties in central and eastern Oregon.

The adage of “dominate the dominant media market” held true for Democrats. Kulongoski did best near Portland and in the Medford media market.

Oregon 2006 Democratic Primary Statewide Results
Kulongoski 52.82%
Hill  28.56%
Sorenson 15.87%
Other   2.75%

Map range consists of shades of green with more intense green indicating more intense support.

For a general discussion of this contest, the statewide percentages for each of the three major candidates. and a map of which counties were won by which candidate please see this post: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1788

Source of election returns: Oregon Secretary of State

Favorability Ratings of Major Oregon Republican Gubernatorial Candidates

The Chris Dudley campaign TV began this week. That means it’s a good time to assess where the Republican Primary contest for Governor started.

The poll below was conducted before that began, but should give a good idea of where the four major Republican candidates for Governor stand at the eve of the campaign.

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The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed March 1-3, 2010.The margin of error at the sample median was 5 percent. Likelihood based on a turnout model that includes vote history, gender, age, and region.

Lindholm Company, LLC, is not working for any of the Republican campaigns for Oregon Governor.

Top National Issues: March 2010 Oregon Republican Primary Survey

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In general, national issues have remained the same for Oregon Republican Primary voters since September 2009. The economy continues to head the list by a wide margin. The related deficit issue comes in a clear second place. The importance of these  monetary issues parallels the state issue list.

A major news item during the week of the survey was the possible use of the “nuclear option” of reconciliation by the Democratic majority in the U. S. Senate in order to pass the health care bill. This might have skewed upwards the importance of health care on the national scene.

What do feel is the top national issue?
Economy  49%
Deficit  24%
Health care   7%
Social issues  6%
Afghanistan   2%
Education   1%
Other    4%
Don’t know   3%

The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed March 1-3, 2010.The margin of error at the sample median was 5 percent. Likelihood based on a turnout model that includes vote history, gender, age, and region.

By way of comparison, a parallel September 14-16, 2009 survey found these results:

What do feel is the top national issue?
Economy  44%
Deficit  24%
Social issues 13%
Afghanistan  4%
Health care  3%
Education  3%
Other   5%
Don’t know  3%

BART to San Jose Familiarity: Santa Clara County Trend

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The countywide familiarity with the BART to San Jose project remains extremely high and nearly constant.

Question:
How familiar are you with building BART to San Jose? Is that very familiar, somewhat familiar, somewhat unfamiliar or very unfamiliar?

METHODOLOGY
The surveys each consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of Santa Clara County likely June 2010 Primary voters conducted June 16-18, 2009, October 26-28, 2009, and February 15-17, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median is 5 percent. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.

2002 Oregon Republican Gubernatorial Primary: Saxton Relative Vote

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Saxton was on the Portland School Board. Saxton is a native of Albany and advertised that fact during the campaign. Saxton did best in Benton and Linn counties and in rural areas.

Geography is at least as important as ideology in deciding the Republican nominee. Geography is much more important for Republicans than for Democrats

Oregon 2002 Republican Primary Statewide Results
Mannix  35.24%
Roberts  29.47%
Saxton  28.11%
Other   7.18%

Map range consists of shades of green with more intense green indicating more intense support.

For a general discussion of this contest, the statewide percentages for each of the three major candidates. and a map of which counties were won by which candidate please see this post: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1786

Source of election returns: Oregon Secretary of State

How Oregon’s Doing According to Republican Primary Voters

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Republicans likely to vote in the 2010 Oregon Primary are very negative on Oregon’s direction.  “Wrong track” outnumbers “right direction” by more than six to one.

An earlier post (http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=2953) noted that these Republicans are unambiguously negative on the overall national direction as well.

The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed March 1-3, 2010.The margin of error at the sample median was 5 percent. Likelihood based on a turnout model that includes vote history, gender, age, and region.

How the Entire Country’s Doing According to Republican Primary Voters

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Republicans likely to vote in the 2010 Oregon Primary are unambiguously negative on overall state of affairs nationwide. “Wrong track” outnumbers “right direction” by more than six to one.

The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed March 1-3, 2010.The margin of error at the sample median was 5 percent. Likelihood based on a turnout model that includes vote history, gender, age, and region.

49er’s Move Familiarity: Santa Clara County Trend

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Countywide familiarity with the proposed 49er’s move to the City of Santa Clara remains high and not declining. This familiarity remains above that of the proposed A’s move to San Jose.

Question:
Do you approve or disapprove of moving the 49er’s football team to Santa Clara? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY
The surveys each consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of Santa Clara County likely June 2010 Primary voters conducted June 16-18, 2009, October 26-28, 2009, and February 15-17, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median is 5 percent. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.

2002 Oregon Republican Gubernatorial Primary: Roberts Relative Vote

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Roberts was an incumbent statewide elected official. Previously, Roberts had been a Lane County Commissioner. Roberts did best in Lane County and in areas the other candidates were weak. One can see clearly how Roberts, despite having a large war chest, lost, as opposed to did not win, the Portland media market. In a three candidate contest, where self definition is key, this failure implies there was a significant problem with his message.

Geography is at least as important as ideology in deciding the Republican nominee. Geography is much more important for Republicans than for Democrats

Oregon 2002 Republican Primary Statewide Results
Mannix  35.24%
Roberts  29.47%
Saxton  28.11%
Other   7.18%

Map range consists of shades of green with more intense green indicating more intense support.

For a general discussion of this contest, the statewide percentages for each of the three major candidates. and a map of which counties were won by which candidate please see this post: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1786

Source of election returns: Oregon Secretary of State