Archive for March 2010

Correspondence Analysis of Governor Choice and Top Issue Key Demographics: March 2010 Oregon Republican Primary Survey

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This correspondence analysis shows several salient features of the Oregon Republican Primary contest.

First, Alley and Dudley are in the same quadrant which implies they are now seen similarly by voters with respect to the major issues.

Second, Lim and Sizemore are in the same quadrant and are further from the origin than are Alley and Dudley. This implies they are seen similarly and they attract a narrower segment of the vote.

Third, economy, education and taxes are all near the center and they are nearer Alley and Dudley. This reinforces the earlier points that Alley and Dudley are seen as the traditional candidates; they are both similar to on another and closer to the three major issues.

The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed March 1-3, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median was 5 percent. Likelihood based on a turnout model that includes vote history, gender, age, and region.

Correspondence Analysis is a way of visually representing crosstabulations.

Lindholm Company is not currently working for any of the candidates in this contest.

Top Oregon Issues Key Demographics: March 2010 Oregon Republican Primary Survey

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The Oregon issues remain similar across Oregon Republican Primary voter demographics. As far as Oregon issues are concerned, the most significant demographic division is between men and women. Women are more focused on education and health care than men.

The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed March 1-3, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median was 5 percent. Likelihood based on a turnout model that includes vote history, gender, age, and region.

Top Oregon Issues: March 2010 Oregon Republican Primary Survey

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The overwhelmingly dominant Oregon issue for Oregon Republican Primary voters remains the economy. The next two issues are taxes and then education.

Details about the survey and the question asked:
What do feel is the top State of Oregon issue?
Economy  47%
Taxes   24%
Education  12%
Health care   5%
Crime    4%
Other    5%
Don’t know   3%

The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed March 1-3, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median was 5 percent. Likelihood based on a turnout model that includes vote history, gender, age, and region.

As a point of comparison, a parallel survey was run in September 14-16, 2009.

What do feel is the top State of Oregon issue?
Economy  43%
Taxes   24%
Education  12%
Health care  9%
Crime   2%
Other   3%
Don’t know  7%

A’s Move Familiarity: Santa Clara County Trend

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Countywide familiarity with the proposed move of the A’s to San Jose has remained constant over time.

Question:
How familiar are you with moving the A’s baseball team to San Jose? Is that very familiar, somewhat familiar, somewhat unfamiliar or very unfamiliar?

METHODOLOGY
The surveys each consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of Santa Clara County likely June 2010 Primary voters conducted June 16-18, 2009, October 26-28, 2009, and February 15-17, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median is 5 percent. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.

2002 Oregon Republican Gubernatorial Primary: Mannix Relative Vote

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Mannix won the 2002 Primary. Mannix, previously, had run unsuccessfully statewide as a Republican nominee and in Democratic primaries. Mannix did best in Marion and Polk counties and in the Portland suburbs. It is possible that the advantage in the Portland suburbs came through an effective tactical use of cable TV.

Geography is at least as important as ideology in deciding the Republican nominee. Geography is much more important for Republicans than for Democrats

Oregon 2002 Republican Primary Statewide Results
Mannix  35.24%
Roberts  29.47%
Saxton  28.11%
Other   7.18%

Map range consists of shades of green with more intense green indicating more intense support.

For a general discussion of this contest, the statewide percentages for each of the three major candidates. and a map of which counties were won by which candidate please see this post: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1786

Source of election returns: Oregon Secretary of State

2012 Presidential Results: March 2010 Oregon Republican Primary Survey

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Romney holds first place, albeit narrowly, among likely 2012 Oregon Republican Primary voters.

Details about the survey and the question asked:
Looking to 2012, if the Republican Primary election for President, if the election were held today, would you vote for:
Mitt Romney  26%
Sarah Palin  22%
Mike Huckabee  16%
Newt Gingrich  12%
Tom Paulenty  1%
Don’t know  23%

 

The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed March 1-3, 2010.The margin of error at the sample median was 5 percent. Likelihood based on a turnout model that includes vote history, gender, age, and region.

By way of comparison, the September 14-16, 2009 survey found:

Mitt Romney  24%
Mike Huckabee  22%
Sarah Palin  19%
Newt Gingrich  14%
Don’t know  22%

Lindholm Company is not currently associated with any of the candidates in the contest.

Governor Key Demographics: March 2010 Oregon Republican Primary Survey

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It should be expected that a former Trailblazer, Chris Dudley, should do better among Republican men than Republican women. All the other three candidates tested showed no significant difference between the genders.

Dudley’s advantage is just outside the margin of error of Alley and Sizemore among women.  Note that the margin of error gets smaller as one moves closer to the extremes of 0 percent and 100 percent. The 7 percent margin of error at the 95 percent level of confidence holds only for percentages at or near the sample median (50 percent).

Details about the survey and the question asked:
If the Republican Primary election for Governor were held today, would you vote for:
Chris Dudley  21%
Allen Alley   9%
Bill Sizemore  7%
John Lim   3%
Don’t know  59%

The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed March 1-3, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median was 5 percent. Likelihood based on a turnout model that includes vote history, gender, age, and region.

Lindholm Company is not currently working with any of the candidates in the contest.

Gubernatorial Results: March 2010 Oregon Republican Primary Survey

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This survey provides an early take on the Oregon Republican Gubernatorial Primary. Chris Dudley is well ahead among voters with an opinion, with more than double second place Allen Alley’s total. However, well more than half, 59 percent, of the likely voters are still undecided, indicating that this contest is far from over.

Details about the survey and the question asked:
If the Republican Primary election for Governor were held today, would you vote for:
Chris Dudley  21%
Allen Alley   9%
Bill Sizemore  7%
John Lim   3%
Don’t know  59%

The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed March 1-3, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median was 5 percent. Likelihood based on a turnout model that includes vote history, gender, age, and region.

By way of comparison, the parallel survey taken September 14-16, 2009, prior to Jason Atkinson’s decision not to run and to Chris Dudley’s announcement found:

If the Republican Primary election for Governor were held today, would you vote for:
Jason Atkinson  15%
Allen Alley  13%
John Lim  4%
Don’t know  68%

Lindholm Company is not currently working with any of the candidates in the contest.

An Early Look at North Carolina Redistricting (2008 Census Estimates)

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This map provides a preliminary look, based on 2008 data, of how state legislative seats will be shifted due to the 2011 redistricting. The more red the county the greater (hotter) the percentage increase or the more blue the smaller (cooler) the percentage increase in estimated population between the 2000 Census and the July 1, 2008 population estimate. Please keep in mind, first, that the map presents are only relative changes and, second, that geographic size does not always correlate to population size.

The counties expected to gain the most representation in the state legislature are (in house seats):
Wake  191%
Mecklenburg 122%
Union   67%
Johnston  31%
Brunswick  25%
Cabarrus  24%

The counties expected to lose the most representation in the state legislature are (in house seats):
Cumberland -45%
Wayne  -21%

The congressional district and senate district gains and losses would be proportionate, only smaller.

Please remember that redistricting can be a quirky process and that these estimates are population weights only, not measurements of actual political power after the redistricting process. Future posts are planned that will provide updated information and analysis as the 2011 reapportionment approaches.

Source of data: U. S. Census
Estimates of congressional seat gains and losses: Polidata, 12/23/09 press release.

49er’s Move Approval: Santa Clara County Trend

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Countywide approval for the 49er’s move to the City of Santa Clara continues to be at elevated levels from where it was in June 2009.

Question:
Do you approve or disapprove of moving the 49er’s football team to Santa Clara? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY
The surveys each consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of Santa Clara County likely June 2010 Primary voters conducted June 16-18, 2009, October 26-28, 2009, and February 15-17, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median is 5 percent. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.