Archive for August 2010

African-American Vote Propensity by Age California Statewide: Part 1

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This post begins a series on vote propensity of African Americans in California based on varying definitions used on voter files to identify ethnicity and race.

Voter ethnicity and race were identified based on surname and personal name. This is considered the narrowest available method, though it is likely to miss some members of the ethnic group and include some who are not members.

The vote propensity is the number of elections voted in, zero through four, out of the past four primaries and generals (June and November of 2006 and June and November of 2008).

The graph has five lines, one each representing the percentage of total registered voters by each year of age for each of the five vote propensity levels.

As a baseline for comparison, an analysis of all California voters is posted at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1542.

This particular series posts will only looks at the relationship with age. The distribution of African-American voters by gender is another interesting issue.

Source of raw data: Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

Trend of Oregon Partisan Voter Registration Difference

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These data include statewide Oregon Democratic and Republican registration data since World War II.
The Democratic advantage increased steadily until the mid 1970s. Since that time it declined steadily until a sudden uptick in 2008.

The difference between the Democratic and Repbulican registration percentages is one way to assess partisan strength.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State

Colliding UGBs: Eugene and Junction City

When looking at planning and economic growth issues, it’s important keep the entire region in mind. 

One case in point is the distance between Eugene’s Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) and the Junction City’s UGB.  The distance reduced significantly when the state located the new hospital between Eugene and Springfield on Highway 99. The state hospital takes priority over other land use issues, so it had to go into some city’s UGB.

Eugene refused to expand its UGB to the north to encompass the new State Hospital. Junction City was only too happy to move south.

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For a more detailed version of this map, please see: Big Picture Eugene and Junction City UGBs. The hospital location is the red polygon in the center of the map.

There are two issues here. First, the planning issue: The Eugene UGB barely goes beyond the city limits. The Junction City UGB extends miles south of the city. It’s clear that the Junction City expansion is more likely to cause sprawl than the Eugene expansion.

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For a more detailed version of this map, please see this tighter focus on Eugene and Junction City UGBs

The second issue is economic. Junction City’s southern appendage is zoned industrial not residential. In the long run, job growth is coming to Junction City rather than Eugene. Beyond jobs, this could be the first step that transfers potential property tax revenue from Eugene to Junction City.

Source of boundary and zoning data: LCOG.