Archive for September 2010

Jewish Vote Propensity by Age California Statewide

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The vote propensity is the number of elections voted in, zero through four, out of the past four primaries and generals (June and November of 2006 and June and November of 2008).

The graph has five lines, one each representing the percentage of total registered voters by each year of age for each of the five vote propensity levels.

Voters were included if they were identified based on surname and personal name as Jewish. This is, admittedly, a limited approach, but the results seemed worth the uncertainty.

The sharp spike at 90 years of age is not because many voters are at age 90. It is because so many are over the age of 90. In order to keep all tables comparable, age 90 was assigned as the upper bound. It happens that there is a significant amount of clustering at age 90 for Jewish voters.

As a baseline for comparison, an analysis of all California voters is posted at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1542.

Source of raw data: Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

Shares of US GDP Components

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This post starts a series looking at the structure of the U. S. economy. Consumption is by far the largest sector of the economy.

Each category represents a specific sector of the economy:
Consumption: Households
Investment: Businesses
Government: Government (all levels)
Net Exports: Foreign

The share equals the size of the component divided by the size of the total.

The 2nd Quarter 2007 was the last quarter prior to the economic downturn.

Data Source: The 2nd Quarter 2007 National Income and Product Accounts from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Where the Businesses Are in Eugene-Springfield

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The businesses and jobs are certainly in north and west Eugene with solidly more than 2/3 of the businesses and private-sector jobs and payroll there.

This difference might go a long way toward explaining Eugene’s divided politics, see http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=3482.

These numbers include only private sector, not government, employment. In particular, the University of Oregon and federal, state, county and city jobs are not included.

The regions are defined at the ZIP Code level. North/West Eugene includes 97401, 97402, 97404, and 97408. South Eugene includes 97403 and 97405. Springfield includes 97477 and 97478. Most of these regions include some rural population. Most of the businesses are in the urban portions of these regions.

The latest available official data on firms, jobs, and payroll at the ZIP Code level  is from 2008 and for population at the ZIP Code level, it is 2000.

Source: Census Bureau: 2008 ZIP Business Patterns and 2000 Census.

African-American Vote Propensity by Age California Statewide: Part 6

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The vote propensity is the number of elections voted in, zero through four, out of the past four primaries and generals (June and November of 2006 and June and November of 2008).

The graph has five lines, one each representing the percentage of total registered voters by each year of age for each of the five vote propensity levels.

Voters were included if they were identified based on surname and personal name or lived in a neighborhood that was 50-59% African-American.

As a baseline for comparison, an analysis of all California voters is posted at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1542.

Source of raw data: Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

Top 12 Oregon Democratic Election Years Since World War II (Based on Voter Registration Ratio Index)

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These data include statewide Oregon Democratic and Republican registration data since World War II.

The best years were mostly during the 60s, 70s, and early 80s. 2008 is the one year outside this period.

The ratio of Democratic to Repbulican voters is one way to assess partisan strength. The index measures the ratio of Democratic voters to Republican voters.

Index = 100*(Democratic Pct./Republican Pct.)

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

EWEB Water Sale to Veneta

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The EWEB water sale to Veneta is supported 63% to 13%.

This survey was conducted in mid June, before much information was available. These results imply any political effort by the Eugene City Council to stop the water sale could be very hazardous.

QUESTION
Do you support or oppose Eugene Water and Electric Board selling water to Veneta? IF SUPPORT OR OPPOSE: Is that strongly or somewhat?

METHODOLOGY
The survey consists of 200 live telephone interviews of likely Eugene 2010 General Election voters conducted June 14-15, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent.

This research was conducted has part of an ongoing long-term research project and no client paid for any part of this work.

African-American Vote Propensity by Age California Statewide: Part 5

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The vote propensity is the number of elections voted in, zero through four, out of the past four primaries and generals (June and November of 2006 and June and November of 2008).

The graph has five lines, one each representing the percentage of total registered voters by each year of age for each of the five vote propensity levels.

Voters were included if they were identified based on surname and personal name or lived in a neighborhood that was 60-69% African-American.

As a baseline for comparison, an analysis of all California voters is posted at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1542.

Source of raw data: Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.