Archive for November 2012

Perceptual Map: Measures 84 and 85

This post presents a perceptual map looking at the relationship between Measure 84 and Measure 85.

The correspondence between the “Yes” votes for one and the “No” votes for the other is striking. Voters see them as mirror images of one another.

QUESTIONS
Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on ________________, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
1. Measure #84 Phases out existing inheritance taxes on large estates, and all taxes on intra-family property transfers
2. Measure #85 Amends Constitution: Allocates Corporate Income/Excise Tax “Kicker” Refund To Additionally Fund K Through 12 Public Education

METHODOLOGY
This tracking survey series is comprised of five statewide Oregon surveys of 200 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon General Election voters conducted each of September 17-18, October 1-2, October 15-16, October 22-23, and October 29-30, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

The graphic is constructed based on a Correspondence Analysis.

Perceptual Map of Oregon’s Nine Ballot Measures

This post presents a perceptual map of Oregon’s nine November 2012 statewide ballot measures. This analysis is based on 1,000 interviews from tracking polls we’ve conducted in September and October.

First, the Perceptual Map of all three factors in one place:

The idea of a perceptual map is to see how the measures are associated. One way to think of it is that there are nine measures on the ballot and nine separate issues to decide. How people vote on these nine questions are driven by deeper, latent, issues. Please see the end of the post for the methodology.

The factors are driven by the weight in the measures. Since there are two casino measures, the casino issue takes up approximately double the weight.

There are three factors (three dimensions). Each one can be seen as distinguishing between a positive and a negative side. The first distinguishes the two Casino measures (82 and 83) from all the others. The second distinguishes the two constitutional measures (77 and 78) and the kicker measure (85) from the two casino measures (82 and 83) and the inheritance tax (84). The third distinguishes the transfer tax and inheritance tax (79 and 84) from the marijuana measure (80).

The nine measures can be grouped. The two casino measures (82 and 83) are always together and on their own. Relatively closer to them are the two business measures (79 on the Real Estate Transfer Tax and 84 on the inheritance tax). These two pairs generally stand apart from the other five measures. The two constitutional measures (77 and 78) are usually close together. The remaining three measures (80, 81, and 85) generally stay near the constitutional measures, but their relative positions change.

One interesting pattern is that the “pro-business” measures are grouped with the casino measures and the “progressive” measures are grouped with the constitutional measures.

The relative positions are probably easier to see when presented as a series of two-dimensional maps.

Factors 1 and 2

Factors 1 and 3

Factors 2 and 3

The share of the total variance: Factor 1: 23 percent – Factor 2: 19 percent – Factor 3 14 percent

These data are from a series of tracking polls we’ve of the Oregon General election. It’s part of a longer-term research project and not for any client. Each of the surveys is only 200 voters and has too much individual variation to be reported. Our results generally match results from all the other surveys.

QUESTIONS
Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on ________________, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
DO NOT ROTATE QUESTIONS
1. Measure #77 Amends Constitution: Governor may declare “catastrophic disaster” (defined); requires legislative session; authorizes suspending specified constitutional spending restrictions
2. Measure #78 Amends Constitution: Changes constitutional language describing governmental system of separation of powers; makes grammatical and spelling changes
3. Measure #79 Amends Constitution: Prohibits real estate transfer taxes, fees, other assessments, except those operative on December 31, 2009
4. Measure #80 Allows personal marijuana, hemp cultivation/use without license; commission to regulate commercial marijuana cultivation/sale
5. Measure #81 Prohibits commercial non-tribal fishing with gillnets in Oregon “inland waters,” allows use of seine nets
6. Measure #82 Amends Constitution: Authorizes Establishment of Privately-Owned Casinos; Mandates Percentage Of Revenues Payable To Dedicated State Fund
7. Measure #83 Authorizes Privately-Owned Wood Village Casino; Mandates Percentage Of Revenues Payable To Dedicated State Fund
8. Measure #84 Phases out existing inheritance taxes on large estates, and all taxes on intra-family property transfers
9. Measure #85 Amends Constitution: Allocates Corporate Income/Excise Tax “Kicker” Refund To Additionally Fund K Through 12 Public Education

METHODOLOGY
This tracking survey series is comprised of five statewide Oregon surveys of 200 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon General Election voters conducted each of September 17-18, October 1-2, October 15-16, October 22-23, and October 29-30, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

The total sample contains 1,000 interviews.

The perceptual map was constructed using factor analysis. Technically, it a Principal Components Analysis was used with unrotated factors. Factors were deemed significant if their eigenvalue was greater than one.

This methodology was used because it involved the least number of assumptions and, in that sense, was the “purest” way to obtain the results. There are more sophisticated methods that would arguably be more illuminating. The objective here was lack of bias and transparency.