Archive for June 2013

Lane County Government Job Performance During the Jail Levy Campaign

The job performance rating of Lane County government was very bad and it got worse during the campaign. In the end, the net favorability was a minus 64 percent.

QUESTION:
How would you rate the job Lane County Government is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY:
200 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely May 2013 Lane County Special Election voters on each of March 18-19, April 22-23, and May 6-7, 2013. The margin of error at the sample median was 7 percent.

Excellent and good responses were grouped as “Approve” and fair and poor responses were grouped as “Disapprove.” This is a common methodology.

 

Lane Jail Levy Yes Percentage Over Eugene Fee Yes Percentage by Eugene Ward

This post shows the difference in margin between the Jail Levy and the Eugene Fee by Eugene City Council Ward. The difference was huge. It was in double digits in every ward.

The smallest differences were in the wards held by Mayor Piercy’s city council allies.

City Council Ward Map
http://www.eugene-or.gov/index.aspx?NID=532

2013 Ward Map

Source of data: Lane County Elections

Eugene Fee Yes Percentage by Ward

The Eugene Service Fee lost in every Eugene City Council Ward. The most supportive was Ward 3 around the University and the least supportive was Ward 6 in Bethel Danebo. Though the top and bottom wards are the same, the exact order of the wards is different than with the Jail Levy.

Map
http://www.eugene-or.gov/index.aspx?NID=532

2013 Ward Map

Source of data: Lane County Elections

Lane Jail Levy Yes Percentage by Ward

The Jail Levy won in every Eugene City Council Ward. The most supportive was Ward 3 around the University and the least supportive was Ward 6 in Bethel Danebo.

City Council Ward Map
http://www.eugene-or.gov/index.aspx?NID=532

2013 Ward Map

Source of data: Lane County Elections

Lane Jail Levy Yes Percentage by County Commissioner District

The Jail Levy won in every county commissioner district.

The most supportive was Sorenson’s South Eugene district. The least supportive was Bozievich’s West Lane district.

County Commissioner District Maps
http://www.lanecounty.org/Departments/BCC/Pages/Districts.aspx

CommissionerDistricts_internet_Extended_2012

CommissionerDistricts_internet_Detailed_2012

Source of data: Lane County Elections

Lane Jail Levy Yes Percentage by Region

This post begins a series of posts that look at the voting in the May 21 election by geography.

This post looks at region. All three regions supported the measure. Eugene was the most supportive. Springfield was the second most supportive. The other areas of the county came next.

Source of data: Lane County Elections

Sheriff Turner Favorability During the Jail Levy Campaign

It’s clear Sheriff Turner’s favorability soared during the campaign. He was the public face of the campaign and the public liked him. The favorables increased by double digits. The unfavorables stayed near zero.

This shows that the yes campaign was effective.

QUESTION:
Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tom Turner? IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?

METHODOLOGY:
200 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely May 2013 Lane County Special Election voters on each of March 18-19, April 22-23, and May 6-7, 2013. The margin of error at the sample median was 7 percent.

Lane Jail Levy Key Demographics

Here is an analysis of the key demographics of the Lane Jail levy.

The first thing you notice is that party wasn’t relevant. Homeownership, education, and location were relevant. Support for the 4J measure http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=8865 and the Eugene Fee http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=8867 were primarily driven by partisanship.

This implies that the reasons for voting yes and the reasons for voting no are felt broadly throughout the county.

QUESTION:
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 20-213: For Jail and Critical Youth Services, a five-year levy. Shall County restore jail beds and critical youth treatment levying $0.55 per $1,000 assessed valuation for five years commencing 2013/14?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY:
200 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely May 2013 Lane County Special Election voters on each of March 18-19, April 22-23, and May 6-7, 2013. The margin of error at the sample median was 7 percent.

The tree diagram was constructing using CHAID.

Lane Jail Levy Pre-Campaign Poll- Why Vote Yes?

 

This graphic lists every reason for voting yes that was mentioned by respondents and was a statistically significant distance from zero.

The jail beds portion of the measure clearly was the primary reason for voting yes. “Early release” was a top reason to vote yes by a huge 38 percent. The need, jail beds, and keep in jail/off streets were all near or above 20 percent.

The commissioners included the Serbu Youth Campus in the measure. The “Youth programs” were specifically mentioned by only a barely significant number. This is common. There are lots of things people like. The key in a campaign is finding what drives the decision. Here the key was the jail beds emergency. The campaign message focused on that.

That noted, this firm is a long time supporter of youth services. We ran the yes campaign for the bond measure that built the Serbu Youth Campus.

QUESTION:
IF VOTING YES: Why would you vote yes?

BASED ON: If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 20-213: For Jail and Critical Youth Services, a five-year levy. Shall County restore jail beds and critical youth treatment levying $0.55 per $1,000 assessed valuation for five years commencing 2013/14? IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY:
200 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely May 2013 Lane County Special Election voters on March 18-19, 2013. The margin of error at the sample median was 7 percent.

The margin of error calculation needs to be adjusted. A total of 117 respondents said they were voting yes. This makes the margin of error at the sample median 9 percent. The percentages are far from the sample median. The margin of error for these results ranges from 6 percent to 8 percent.

Lane Jail Levy Polling Trends

This is going to be relatively long post. There is a lot of information to get through. This is the first in a series of posts about May’s jail levy.

Above is the countywide polling trend for the Lane County Jail levy. There was a slight trend downward in the polling and a sharp uptick to the victory percentage. As usual, the best way to interpret the data is to assume all the “No” and “Undecided” voters will vote no.

The overall variation from one poll to the next is not so large. All polls were above 50 percent and predicted a win. All were within margin of error of the final result. Two of the three were within two points of the final landslide percentage.

The early poll appears more accurate than later polls. It is rare that money measures in Oregon move very much or increase over time. See http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=8863 for the 4J Bond trend and http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=8861 for the Eugene Service Fee trend.

It’s the downward trend that’s interesting.

The variations get to the issue of timing of polls. First, the public relations snafus regarding the county administrator’s pay, the attempted Metro Partnership coup, and a commissioner’s very public attempt to remove a newspaper reporter from a meeting had an impact.

Second, due to the early lack of funds the Yes on the Jail Levy campaign was only able to start advertising May 2. This was just a few days before the last countywide poll was fielded (May 6-7). Essentially, only the snafus were in the public’s mind.

Together this makes it clear why the Lane County polling went downhill.

The next step is to look at the polling of City of Eugene voters.

This graphic covers the Eugene polling. The Eugene poll picked up the support increase the Lane polling missed because it was fielded one week later. It was all in the timing.

The Eugene polling shows a steady increase over time. The final boost, between April 29-30 and May 13-14 was huge and definitely statistically significant. The increase was nine points. Well above the margin of error. This was a clear indication of a movement.

What happened? It appears the yes campaign happened. The yes campaign’s advertising didn’t start until after the 2nd Eugene survey.

It is rare money measure support increases this significantly.

This graphic combines the trends of yes vote percentages for the Eugene and Lane polling series.

By May 13-14, the yes campaign was in full gear and it showed. The Eugene polling jumped dramatically. The last Lane poll, from one week earlier, showed a drop.

This makes it clear how important the jail levy campaign was.

The plan is that posts in subsequent weeks will examine more details about the Jail Levy campaign.

QUESTION:
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 20-213: For Jail and Critical Youth Services, a five-year levy. Shall County restore jail beds and critical youth treatment levying $0.55 per $1,000 assessed valuation for five years commencing 2013/14?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY:
LANE: 200 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely May 2013 Lane County Special Election voters on each of March 18-19, April 22-23, and May 6-7, 2013. The margin of error at the sample median was 7 percent.

EUGENE: 200 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely May 2013 City of Eugene Special Election voters on each of April 2-3, April 29-30, and May 13-14, 2013. The margin of error at the sample median was 7 percent.

We won’t know the results of the measure in the City of Eugene until the precinct results are released not later than June 10.